IA/NH-Bloomberg: Sanders gains, Clinton stronger in NH

[Gallium]

http://images.businessweek.com/cms/2015-06-24/IA-methodology-public.pdf
http://images.businessweek.com/cms/2015-06-24/NH-methodology-public.pdf

Iowa:
Clinton: 50%
Sanders: 24%
O'Malley: 2%
Chafee: 0%

New Hampshire:
Clinton: 56%
Sanders: 24%
O'Malley: 2%
Chafee: 1%

[Mr. Morden]

While Bloomberg paid for the polls, note that they were conducting by different polling firms.  The Iowa poll was done by Selzer, while the NH poll was done by Purple Strategies.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Sanders momentum is real. Go Sanders.

[King]

2 to 1 victories in every state for Clinton-Sanders is about right. That's enough for him to earn delegates. He should just stay in for the long haul and have fun with it.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Even if Clinton gets 70% of the vote in Iowa, Sanders could very well take 20-25% which is more than respectable. 

[Ebsy]

About where everyone expects him to be, playing a distant second fiddle to Clinton.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Nice to see him at almost 25% in IA. I would've expected him to be doing a bit better in NH, with Hillary closer to 50%.

[Gallium]

Even if Clinton gets 70% of the vote in Iowa, Sanders could very well take 20-25% which is more than respectable.  

I expect the vote to eventually split ~65%-35%, just like Gore-Bradley.

O'Malley, Webb and Chafee are not going to be able to reach the 15% threshold, so he'll be able to consolidate all the second-choice ABH votes to himself on caucus night.

[Tender Branson]

The Bernie-train keeps on rolling.

Best result for him so far in IA.

Plus:

I could see him at 20% in IA and 20-25% in NH within the next 2 months.

That would be a good start ahead of the debates.

[Eraserhead]

NH poll looks like an outlier.

Good to see Sanders improving in Iowa.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

NH poll looks like an outlier.

Good to see Sanders improving in Iowa.

I agree. Looking at http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-new-hampshire-presidential-democratic-caucus, Bloomberg had higher numbers for Hillary than most other polls from the same time. Not to say that Bloomberg is more or less accurate, but it seems to be the outlier of the four polls over the last couple of weeks.

[Eraserhead]

NH poll looks like an outlier.

Good to see Sanders improving in Iowa.

I agree. Looking at http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-new-hampshire-presidential-democratic-caucus, Bloomberg had higher numbers for Hillary than most other polls from the same time. Not to say that Bloomberg is more or less accurate, but it seems to be the outlier of the four polls over the last couple of weeks.

Yeah, so this actually represents a pretty huge improvement for Sanders from their last NH poll which is probably all that matters.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

NH poll looks like an outlier.

Good to see Sanders improving in Iowa.

I agree. Looking at http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-new-hampshire-presidential-democratic-caucus, Bloomberg had higher numbers for Hillary than most other polls from the same time. Not to say that Bloomberg is more or less accurate, but it seems to be the outlier of the four polls over the last couple of weeks.

Yeah, so this actually represents a pretty huge improvement for Sanders from their last NH poll which is probably all that matters.

Exactly what I was thinking.