Why does everyone now think Bush will win the nomination?

[ElectionsGuy]

It seems like every since his announcement, there has been a bump in people who think Bush will win the nomination. Not just in the media, but in blogs as well. Why is this? Is there anything he has done besides just announcing that he is now the utmost front runner, more so than he was before?

[Yelnoc]

It just reminds people that he is the front runner, that he has all the money, all the consultants, and all the advantages that come with that. Bush in the same position as Romney in 2012; he just appears to be a much weaker candidate, which makes this whole thing interesting.

[eric82oslo]

It just reminds people that he is the front runner, that he has all the money, all the consultants, and all the advantages that come with that. Bush in the same position as Romney in 2012; he just appears to be a much weaker candidate, which makes this whole thing interesting.

I don't think he's weaker actually, he just has three times as many competitors.
Don't forget that Romney wanted to selfdeport illegal latinos. Jeb doesn't even want to selfdeport his own wife or kids, nor repudiate his own knowledge of Spanish lol.

Jeb might have issues with his surname, yet Romney had issues with his Mormon faith (and bullying a gay kid at high school).

[Crumpets]

The last time the GOP won an election without a Bush on the ticket was 1972, and they are 5 for 6 on elections with a Bush. He's the safe bet, although he'll still lose in all likelihood.

[Vega]

He has the most money.

[RINO Tom]

I don't.

[Mehmentum]

He's the establishment candidate, and the establishment candidate has had a good track record in recent GOP presidential primaries.

Nevertheless, I'm not convinced.  Walker and Rubio aren't nearly as repellent to the establishment as the clowns in the 2012 primary were. 

[Ebsy]

I don't think he will. He certainly might, but I just don't see how he amasses a majority of delegates.

[heatmaster]

I think he comes across as someone who possesses gravitas. He seems more likeable and approachable. Republicans see Paul not as a good fit, Cruz is too toxic - ideological baggage, Jindal unknown quantity, same for Lindsey Graham, Scott Walker doesn't look presidential material, same for John Kasich, Carly Fiorina would be a perfect vice presidential material, Rick Santorum or Mile Huckabee are in the ditch, Rick Perry well its over, Vice President Perry works for me & Mike Huckabee needs to give up the ghost!

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Yes. The gravitas factor is very important. It's not really quantifiable, but it's just a sense you get when looking over the candidates. This cycle, Bush and Kasich are the only ones who really seem to have it. Perry possibly has the potential to earn back his gravitas, but he hasn't had that aura since the summer of 2011. Christie is another case of a politician losing his aura of credibility. I know it seems shallow, but the winner is necessarily going to "feel" like a president. Do Rand Paul or Scott Walker really feel like presidents of the United States? Nah.

[Potus]

The Republican primary is an amazing instance of people talking past the data. The narrative that the media likes to push is one of Koran burning, abortion clinic bombing, gun toting hooded figures all getting together to determine the best means of destroying America's inevitable march into a brighter day of progress and safe zones.

This is not what the Republican primary actually is. There are two arguments that each serve has a healthy reality check to the media narrative. The first is of blue state Republicans. It's been talked about on the Atlas before, and been circulated around the blogosphere. Blue state Republicans are much less rural, much less evangelical, much more moderate, and very much overrepresented when it comes to the nomination process. A lot of Governor Romney's support came from blue state Republicans. These will naturally favor the establishment candidate.

Blue state Republicans have ideological and cultural counterparts in the rest of the party. Again, this has been talked about on the Atlas before. Moderate and liberal Republicans still compose 25-30% of the primary electorate in presidential years. These voters have a tendency to "fall in line" behind the candidate of the somewhat conservatives. The somewhat conservatives are the bulk of the primary electorate, close to 40%.

So, you look at the national primary electorate and the over-representation of blue state delegates and the conclusion you come to is clear: the primary very much favors a center-right, establishment-appeasing candidate.

Governor Bush looks to be that candidate. His "heresies" are on issues which is acceptable to be heretical on to the moderates and the mainstream conservatives. Immigration is an issue which is very easy to reach across the aisle on. President W. Bush did it twice. Common Core is mostly an issue for the strong social conservative and very conservative voters that get a disproportionate amount of airtime when it comes to the Republican primary.

Governor Bush has the best pitch to make to the moderates and mainstream conservatives. He's definitely got the resources, the infrastructure, and the know-how to deliver the pitch. Therefore, Jeb Bush stands a very good chance of winning the Republican nomination.

[cinyc]

I don't.  His last name is a major hinderance.  And if Bush wins the nomination, the conservative base will be demoralized and may very well not get out to vote.  There has been a string of establishment moderates who have won the nomination in the bast 8 years.  The base is sick of having to hold their nose and vote for them.  Boehner and his cave into Obama's demands ilk are not viewed positively by the base.

[© tweed]

Republicans generally nominate the candidate they're told to nominate.

[Lincoln Republican]

Jeb is actually qualified to be President.

He stands head and shoulders above the comedic rabble who think they can actually be taken seriously as Presidential contenders.

[Torie]

Yes, I don't accept the premise of the OP, and those who think who think they know at this point who the probable nominee will be are just foolish and/or naive and/or uninformed in my opinion. Among other things, how these candidates perform under pressure will perhaps be the most important factor of all, and as to that we can merely just speculate, and like anyone, sometimes you just get unlucky and have a bad moment, and just screw up. So luck plays its part too.

[Famous Mortimer]

Yes, I don't accept the premise of the OP, and those who think who think they know at this point who the probable nominee will be are just foolish and/or naive and/or uninformed in my opinion. Among other things, how these candidates perform under pressure will perhaps be the most important factor of all, and as to that we can merely just speculate, and like anyone, sometimes you just get unlucky and have a bad moment, and just screw up. So luck plays its part too.

[eric82oslo]

Yes, I don't accept the premise of the OP, and those who think who think they know at this point who the probable nominee will be are just foolish and/or naive and/or uninformed in my opinion. Among other things, how these candidates perform under pressure will perhaps be the most important factor of all, and as to that we can merely just speculate, and like anyone, sometimes you just get unlucky and have a bad moment, and just screw up. So luck plays its part too.

If you're talking about Rick Perry now, there's an easy answer to that: His IQ is just not very high. In many ways, he's the Texan answer to Sarah Palin. Just because he's the longest serving Governor in Texas' history, doesn't mean that he's smart, or that he has any shots at the nomination.

[Bull Moose Base]

Someone has to.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Because after Dole, Romney and McCain, legacy falls to Jeb after his pa and brother were presidents.

[Fuzzy Says: "Abolish NPR!"]

Jeb is actually qualified to be President.

He stands head and shoulders above the comedic rabble who think they can actually be taken seriously as Presidential contenders.

I'll give you that.  Bush is qualified and substantive.  And I cannot say the same about Marco Rubio.

I do think, however, that John Kasich has gravitas, and is above the rabble.  I think that in terms of a normal Presidential election, Lindsey Graham has impressive qualifications.  In his way, Donald Trump has serious qualifications, in that he has done BIG things in business.  I would argue that George Pataki has serious qualifications.  Kasich really does stand out over the others and stands the closest to Jeb in terms of traditional qualifications, but the GOP doesn't seem to see this yet.

[Ebsy]

John Kasich is above the rabble in your humble opinion, but below the rabble in the polls.

[Boston Bread]

$$$$$$$$$

[ag]

It seems like every since his announcement, there has been a bump in people who think Bush will win the nomination. Not just in the media, but in blogs as well. Why is this? Is there anything he has done besides just announcing that he is now the utmost front runner, more so than he was before?

He is not very likely to be the nominee. He is just more likely than anyone else So, if you ask "who will be the nominee" there is not better single answer.

[dudeabides]

It seems like every since his announcement, there has been a bump in people who think Bush will win the nomination. Not just in the media, but in blogs as well. Why is this? Is there anything he has done besides just announcing that he is now the utmost front runner, more so than he was before?

The fact of the matter is, the race won't really begin until probably November. Other than politicos, no one will pay attention until the late fall / early winter.

Since 1960, the only two elections where the GOP establishment candidate did not get the nomination was 1964 with Barry Goldwater and 1980 with Ronald Reagan.

Jeb Bush is the early favorite amongst the GOP establishment and the moderate wing of the party. In all likelihood, given his last name, his record, his ability to fundraise, how he presents himself, and his message, he will remain the establishment favorite.

Right now, it is assumed Bush's main challengers will be Marco Rubio and Scott Walker. But, let's take a look back:
- In 2012, Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum ended up being Mitt Romney's strongest challengers. While most agreed Gingrich was formidable, few believed Santorum would mount a strong challenge to Romney.
- In 2008, Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee became John McCain's challengers to the right. But, throughout 2007, the story was McCain Vs. Rudy Giuliani, and then McCain Vs. Giuliani Vs. Fred Thompson. Thompson's campaign never went anywhere, and Giuliani took a gamble and lost.
- In 2000, Elizabeth Dole looked like George W. Bush's biggest obstacle to the 2000 GOP nomination. But, Dole ended her presidential bid and John McCain, running to Bush's left, became his main challenge

The point is, we don't know who Bush's main challenger will be, but based on recent history, it is likely Bush will be the nominee.

[Bull Moose Base]

It seems like every since his announcement, there has been a bump in people who think Bush will win the nomination. Not just in the media, but in blogs as well. Why is this? Is there anything he has done besides just announcing that he is now the utmost front runner, more so than he was before?

He is not very likely to be the nominee. He is just more likely than anyone else So, if you ask "who will be the nominee" there is not better single answer.

I agree with this.

I'd peg the odds Bush 40, Walker 30, Rubio 20, other 10

Bush has his last name, immigration and Common Core.
Walker has Wisconsin.
Rubio has Obama's resume and immigration.
Everyone else's problems are even bigger.