Silent Hunter's reaction

[Silent Hunter]

I'm currently a cross between happy we've won and downright annoyed at certain results (including my home town, lost to the Tories).

I heard the exit poll in a supermarket and immediately worked out a 3% swing in my head.

I get back in time for Sunderland South and as those 5 seats come in, I look at the swings. And I start worrying.

I was watching this on ITV, we couldn't get BBC.

Then we held Cleethorpes, a seat the Tories needed

The night was spent typing in results as fast as I could and writing my log.

My ten thoughts on the night:
1. How on earth did we lose Enfield Southgate and Manchester Withington?
2. Galloway's speech in BG&B was nasty. The entire audience were not happy.
3. How did we hold Dumfries and Galloway?
4. There were some big swings out there.
5. The exit polls were bang on tonight. Good job NOP/MORI. NOP appear to have got the result closest overall.
6. I got the by-elections right. We gained Leicester South, but not Brent East.
7. The 'decapitation' strategy didn't work did it? Except for Tim Collins.
8. I was hoping we'd hit 324 during Howard's speech.
9. This isn't a Tory revival- most their gains were due to Labour-Lib Dem swing, not great improvements on their own.
10. I haven't checked all my predictions, but I've got 90% or so right of the ones I've entered so far.

Majority of about 70. Not huge, not small. Good enough to govern on.

We won the third term, but I'm not euphoric. We lost 6% in the popular vote. There's issues there, hopefully they'll go away next time.

[minionofmidas]

1. How on earth did we lose Enfield Southgate and Manchester Withington?
I guess Enfield Southgate's just got large no.s of typical swing voters. It was safer for the Tories than North in 92, safer for Labour in 97 and 01. Withington also is volatile, it was Tory from 83-87.
3. How did we hold Dumfries and Galloway?
Lots of tactical anti-Tory voting going on. The old Galloway was a Tory-Nat marginal, and lots of Labour voters went SNP. After the redistricting, the Nats were certain not to win. Instead Labour had a chance due to the addition of ultra-Labour Dumfries city. Those votes drifted back, plus Nats likely repaid the favour.
7. The 'decapitation' strategy didn't work did it?
It certainly did not. Except in keeping turnout up.
9. This isn't a Tory revival- most their gains were due to Labour-Lib Dem swing, not great improvements on their own.
True. The Tories made some minimal gains, but the big story of the night should be Labour being deserted for the LDs by a) tactical voters who always preferred the LDs
b) Socially liberal, pacifist middle class lefties

Tory gains by region
London 1.4
SE 2.1
E 1.4
SW 0.1
W Mids 0.2
E Mids -0.2
Yorks -1.1
NW -0.7
NE -1.8
Wales 0.4
Scotland 0.3
Seems that Al's increased regional polarization thingy turned out true.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Hunter: Cryer did pretty well in Hornchurch; I thought he'd get slaughtered; he nearly hung on.

[minionofmidas]

Nationally (well, tri-nationally) Labour are down 5.8, LD's are up 3.8, Cons are up .6. The BBC calls that a "3.2 point swing from Labour to the Tories". Wouldn't it make a hell of a lot more sense to call it a 4.8 point swing from Labour to the LDs?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

No, for archivial purposes

[Silent Hunter]

Al, am I right in thinking that Hornsey and Wood Green is full of 'Crouch End liberals'? Crouch End is in the seat and someone described it as the home of Stop The War.

Is that why we lost it?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Al, am I right in thinking that Hornsey and Wood Green is full of 'Crouch End liberals'? Crouch End is in the seat and someone described it as the home of Stop The War.

Is that why we lost it?

Yep. The Boundary Commison might as well rename that seat "Muesli Belt"... for Americans reading this, Crouch End is where the U.K versions of Latte Liberals live. I hate the place and all it stands for.

[Rural Radical]

This will bring back an influx of Retread MPS. John Cryer (I disagree with him over the war) who I habve a lot of admiration for will be a top candidate for a Safe seat up north if a by election comes up.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Cryer deserves a reward for nearly hanging onto Hornchurch despite every single trend possible working against him; he'd make a good by-election candidate IMO.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Seems that Al's increased regional polarization thingy turned out true.

See, I get some things right

More class polarisation too: we held all bar one North Kent seat but got nearly wiped out in Hertfordshire.

[Rural Radical]

Anice safe seat in Yorkshire or Lancashire for the younger version of Tony Benn

And yes there is a north south divide and Working- middle class divide.

[minionofmidas]

Seems that Al's increased regional polarization thingy turned out true.

See, I get some things right

More class polarisation too: we held all bar one North Kent seat but got nearly wiped out in Hertfordshire.

Fun thing is it's evident in the Tory vote but not in the Labour and LD votes (the Northeast and Scotland were the LD's best results actually).