The Results Thread

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Trimble lost by 5,398 (12.2%). Ouch. I'd expected him to go down, but not that hard

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Labour have ousted the Independent Mayor of Stoke on Trent.

[Storebought]

What was Trimble's consituency?

*just found out. Pretty humiliating*

And about the UK mayorships: I'd be surprised to see any not held by Labour

[Keystone Phil]

I know it's probably already been discussed but I'd like to add that I'm shocked by Howard's move. He really does believe in what he says. They didn't "get the job done" (win) so he's out. Very honorable in my opinion.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

And about the UK mayorships: I'd be surprised to see any not held by Labour

Very few local authorities have elected mayors and the initial round of elections for them was marked by lots and lots of protest voting.

[Storebought]

And about the UK mayorships: I'd be surprised to see any not held by Labour

Very few local authorities have elected mayors and the initial round of elections for them was marked by lots and lots of protest voting.

Wow. I thought that the centralization of the 1980s was reversed by Labour. So how are the rest of the localities governed?

[minionofmidas]

By a system similar to that of parliament, ie council majority leaders.

[Peter]

I've just found out that the Harlow count has been suspended until tomorrow - apparently it is really that close; Lead is presently with Labour but it may be no more than a few dozen.

[minionofmidas]

With 12 out of 18 Northern Irish seats up, they line up as follows:
DUP 36.2% (+13.7%, in these constituencies that is, not compared to all of NI 01) 7 seats (+3)
SF 22.4 (+1.7) 3 seats (no change)
UUP 20.7 (-9.2) 1 seats (-4)
SDLP 12.8 (+3.9) 1 seat (+1)
Alliance 4.5 (+1.2) no seats, no change

[minionofmidas]

I've just found out that the Harlow count has been suspended until tomorrow - apparently it is really that close; Lead is presently with Labour but it may be no more than a few dozen.

More likely Torbay/Winchester-sized. A few dozen isn't that close.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I thought that the centralization of the 1980s was reversed by Labour.

It is being. Slowly (the elected Mayors are a good example of that).
London will soon get Parish Councils.

[minionofmidas]

UUP-to-DUP swing in Strangford rather stronger than that. UUP clings on to second spot, though.

[minionofmidas]

Holy ing sh**t.
last Unionist seat, Lagan Valley is in.
Jeffrey Donaldson, DUP, 54.7%. Up 41.3 points
Basil McCrea, UUP, 21.5%. Down 35.0 points

Down North continues its independent tradition...only Unionist seat that's not gone Paisleyite.
Only the three SDLP seats and Martin McGuinness out. And Harlow o/c.

[WMS]

Holy g sh**t.
last Unionist seat, Lagan Valley is in.
Jeffrey Donaldson, DUP, 54.7%. Up 41.3 points
Basil McCrea, UUP, 21.5%. Down 35.0 points

Down North continues its independent tradition...only Unionist seat that's not gone Paisleyite.
Only the three SDLP seats and Martin McGuinness out. And Harlow o/c.

And so the DUP is the fourth largest party in Westminister. Wow. Did Sinn Fein really piss off the NI Protestants since 2001 or is there something else going on?

[Kevinstat]

Holy g sh**t.
last Unionist seat, Lagan Valley is in.
Jeffrey Donaldson, DUP, 54.7%. Up 41.3 points
Basil McCrea, UUP, 21.5%. Down 35.0 points

Keep in mind that Donaldson was the outgoing MP and had stood for the UUP in the last election.  I read on Nicholas Whyte's site that he had to take with him 40% of his 2001 vote (plus the votes of his 2001 DUP opponent) to win.  His victory was not a surprise to pundits at all.

[minionofmidas]

You're right. I remember the name Donaldson. Still, will you just look at that swing.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

remaining seats to be called:
Foyle: lean SDLP hold; possible SF pickup
Harlow: current Labour; Labour/Tory tossup
Mid Ulster: safe Sinn Fein hold
Newry & Armagh: current SDLP; SDLP/SF tossup
South Down: safe SDLP hold

That gives:
Lab: 355 + 1 tossup
Con: 197 + 1 tossup + 1 by-election (Staffordshire South)
LibDem: 62
SNP: 6
PC: 3
DUP: 9
Sinn Fein: 4 + 1 tossup
SDLP: 3 + 1 tossup
UUP: 1
IKHH: 1
Respect: 1
Independent: 1 (but likely to join Labour)

[minionofmidas]

Smart money in Foyle is on SF. Incumbent is retiring.
Harlow apparently won't be called today, and is very very close but it's undisclosed how close.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Smart money in Foyle is on SF. Incumbent is retiring.

Still a lot of swing for that to happen, but I’ll grant that’s probably enough to take the seat out of the safe SDLP category.

[Kevinstat]

Foyle: safe SDLP hold
Newry & Armagh: current SDLP; SDLP/SF tossup
...

Sinn Fein: 4 + 1 tossup
SDLP: 3 + 1 tossup

Newry and Armagh is not regarded by those "in the know" whose forcasts I have seen as a tossup.  The SDLP only won one Assembly seat out of three in the late summer or fall of '03 and the outgoing SDLP MP was not standing for reelection.  93.6% of those submitting predictions for Nicholas Whyte's Northern Ireland 2005 Westminster Election predictions contest (including me) expected Sinn Fein to take the seat.  Foyle was not considered to be a safe SDLP seat but provisional results have the SDLP candidate (and leader, actually) up by 5/6,000 votes, so it can now be considered fairly safe for the SDLP.

Kevin

[minionofmidas]

Provisional results? Where you got that from?

[minionofmidas]

Well wherever they came from (not the provisional wing, I suppose) they're correct.
SDLP hold Free Derry with ease, despite a minor-ish swing against them.
Meanwhile, Newry & Armagh goes to SF in a handbasket.

[Peter]

I've just found out that the Harlow count has been suspended until tomorrow - apparently it is really that close; Lead is presently with Labour but it may be no more than a few dozen.

More likely Torbay/Winchester-sized. A few dozen isn't that close.

From what I understand, there are ballot irregularities in play here also: I feel a Court challenge coming on.

[minionofmidas]

I've just found out that the Harlow count has been suspended until tomorrow - apparently it is really that close; Lead is presently with Labour but it may be no more than a few dozen.

More likely Torbay/Winchester-sized. A few dozen isn't that close.

From what I understand, there are ballot irregularities in play here also: I feel a Court challenge coming on.

Ah yes...as I said. Winchester.

[MHS2002]

SF gains Newry and Armagh from SDLP
41% to 25% approx.