Greek Referendum on IMF/Troika deal

[jaichind]

I have to find out more, but two separate Greek media polls has Yes ahead.

[BundouYMB]

Those polls were conducted before the referendum was announced and the question had the government supporting a yes vote. AFAIK there have been no polls since the referendum's announcement.

[Beezer]

Greece Asks for 2-Year Bailout Program From ESM: PM’s Office

Looks like there is another attempt at a deal

What a colossal fück up. They're a couple of hours from defaulting on an IMF loan and then they come up with a new proposal. To be honest I think this is just a ploy by Tsipras to present himself to the electorate as the guy that tried to negotiate to the very last minute.

[jaichind]

Greece Asks for 2-Year Bailout Program From ESM: PM’s Office

Looks like there is another attempt at a deal

What a colossal fück up. They're a couple of hours from defaulting on an IMF loan and then they come up with a new proposal. To be honest I think this is just a ploy by Tsipras to present himself to the electorate as the guy that tried to negotiate to the very last minute.

Of course.  Merkel already said that there will be no consideration of any deals until after the referendum.  I guess she is betting the Greeks vote yes, Tsipras will be humbled or out of the way, and then a new deal hammered out.

[jaichind]

The  60 euros limit is beginning to cause problems.  The union for National Bank of Greece SA workers appealed for a police presence in the next three days at branches open for the payment of pensions.

CDS rates for Spain, Italy, and Portugal still steady as the firewall still holds even as strains are increasing inside Greece itself.  I guess this is the basis of Merkel's hardline position. 

[BaconBacon96]

Greece has entered arrears.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Looking at the overall prices of various securities as well as the trading volume, it seems the investment community is calling Tsipras's bluff.  The way the market is reacting is actually strengthening  the hands of EU.  We needs to see what takes place after Greece misses the IMF payment on Tuesday.  But if that does not lead to a market meltdown and Tsipras is running out of cards to play for the Sunday vote.  The Greek voter will see the financial chaos in Greece itself as well as relative financial calm in the rest of EU.  They will know which way they have to vote to get out of this.

Greeks who don't have anything to lose may well not care.

[ag]

Looking at the overall prices of various securities as well as the trading volume, it seems the investment community is calling Tsipras's bluff.  The way the market is reacting is actually strengthening  the hands of EU.  We needs to see what takes place after Greece misses the IMF payment on Tuesday.  But if that does not lead to a market meltdown and Tsipras is running out of cards to play for the Sunday vote.  The Greek voter will see the financial chaos in Greece itself as well as relative financial calm in the rest of EU.  They will know which way they have to vote to get out of this.

Greeks who don't have anything to lose may well not care.

Greeks, who don't have anything to loose will, of course, not care. But the intersection of those two sets is pretty small.

[jaichind]

Rumors are that internal polling by ND show "Yes" with 55% support. Syriza internal polling also show "Yes" ahead.

[jaichind]

Greek finance minister Varoufakis seems to offer, according to anonymous sources, that to suspend the referendum if talks with the EU are reopened.

[ag]

If Greeks vote "yes", this would be very interesting. I, for one, would be very interested in the general European response. Hopefully, it will be guided by the desire to help Greek citizens (if not their government).

[RogueBeaver]

If Tsipras resigns, then who would replace him as PM?

[ag]

If Tsipras resigns, then who would replace him as PM?

His Holyness Ieronymos II, Archbishop of Athens and All Greece in cohabitation with Dimitrios Koutsoumpas, Secretary General of the Communist Party of Greece and Nikolaos Michaloliakos, the head of the Golden Dawn.

Seriously, nobody has a clue of anything at this point.

[Mehmentum]

Looks like this is backfiring horribly on Tsipras.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

How likely is it that Greece has significant default but stays in the euro?

[ag]

How likely is it that Greece has significant default but stays in the euro?

Why wouldn't they simply nuke Athens themselves instead? It would, at least, be less of a torture to the inhabitants.

[ag]

Looks like this is backfiring horribly on Tsipras.

I doubt. I would, actually, need to see some actual polling, rather than rumors.

[MalaspinaGold]

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/business/greek-referendum-poll-shows-lead-for-no-vote-but-gap-narrowing-after-capital-control-measures/articleshow/47892808.cms
No ahead 54-33.  We'll probably need to see if there's further movement though.

LOL at No being higher among SYRIZA voters (77%) than KKE voters (57%).

[jaichind]

Greek PM Alexis Tsipras will accept creditors’ conditions that were on the table this weekend with only a handful of minor changes, Financial Times says, citing letter the prime minister sent late Tuesday night, obtained by the FT.  A Two-page letter was sent to the heads of the European Commission, International Monetary Fund,  European Central Bank.  Tsipras’ letter says Greece will accept all the reforms of his country’s VAT system w/change: special 30% discount for Greek islands be maintained.

[jaichind]

Efsyn poll has 30/57 for Yes/No before capital controls/banking holiday.  Same poll has 37/46 for Yes/No after capital controls/banking holiday.

[jaichind]

JPMorgan report still expects Yes to win despite surprising No lead in polls based on shock of the bank closures effects.  

Blackstone Group LP also came out with a report expecting a strong vote for Yes.

[jaichind]

(Bloomberg) -- Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has offered to accept proposals from the nation’s creditors to end a standoff over its bailout program, subject to certain conditions.
The proposal was contained in a letter from Tsipras dated June 30 to his creditors and obtained by Bloomberg.

[jaichind]

I guess Tsipras now want to wind up his gambit given that he is ahead in the polls but fearing that lead might fade soon so he better lock up a deal while he still have a relative advantage compared to where he was a couple of days ago and where he expects to be a couple of days from now.

[BaconBacon96]

http://images.businessweek.com/cms/2015-07-01/BN_070115_9315.pdf

Here's his letter. I assume the Troika will accept it, if they don't then they would be shooting themselves in the foot, hard.

[jaichind]

Paddy Power offered odds of 2/7 – representing an 80 percent chance of a Yes vote.  It indicates that 85% of all bets are for Yes.