Greek Referendum on IMF/Troika deal

[Hash]

this is a thread about an election/referendum, not about your personal finances, so let's keep it like that. gracias.

[RogueBeaver]

Troika meeting tomorrow morning.

[jaichind]

Overall, Tsipras's statements seems more conciliatory than Varoufakis.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

The map is surprisingly uniform.

[jaichind]

Top Syriza officials say they are considering drastic steps to boost liquidity and shore up the banking system, should the ECB refuse to give the country enough breathing room for a fresh talks.
Varoufakis "If necessary, we will issue parallel liquidity and California-style IOU's, in an electronic form."
Syriza sources say the Greek ministry of finance is examining options to take direct control of the banking system if need be rather than accept a draconian seizure of depositor savings - reportedly a 'bail-in' above a threshold of 8K EUR and to prevent any banks being shut down on the orders of the ECB.

[© tweed]

Imagine if every time the an American state ended up in economic trouble, all 50 governors had to get together and hash out a solution. This is a farce.

the federal government here generally draws a line and refuses to function as a lender of last resort for municipalities.  if an entire state was facing bankruptcy, it's hard to say what Washington would do.

a good case study is the situation in New York City in ~1975.  the biggest City in the country was going under and Gerald Ford refused a federal bailout.  Eric Lichten documented this in his book Class, Power, and Austerity.

the NYC situation set the model for how neoliberalism would treat political entities with unsustainable debt.  bail out the creditors and punish the citizens.  nowadays some states even have laws that allow for a state takeover of an officially struggling municipality, school district, etc -- openly undercutting any pretense of democracy.

[Beezer]

German SPD vice-Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel indicates Tsipras has “torn down the last bridges across which Europe and Greece could have moved toward a compromise” ...“By rejecting the rules of the game of the euro area, as expressed in the majority ‘No’ vote

The Germans are very angry. 

if there were any doubt left that the Eurozone is an antidemocratic project..

Because Gabriel has an eye on the voters that elect him?

[© tweed]

German SPD vice-Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel indicates Tsipras has “torn down the last bridges across which Europe and Greece could have moved toward a compromise” ...“By rejecting the rules of the game of the euro area, as expressed in the majority ‘No’ vote

The Germans are very angry. 

if there were any doubt left that the Eurozone is an antidemocratic project..

Because Gabriel has an eye on the voters that elect him?

because he alleges "Tsipras has burned the last bridges" by letting his general population directly vote on a major policy event.

if your point is this fellow is just bullsh**tting for his own purposes, that's fine.

[jaichind]

Looks like it will end up being 61/39.  The projections of the Ministry of Interior made several hours ago was very much on target. 

[RogueBeaver]

Finance ministry is examining options to take direct control of the banking system and replacing the BOG governor.

Reaction from here in Canada: confident in Eurozone stability, urging continued negotiation.

[BaconBacon96]

I'm thinking that maybe a whole lot of potential Yes voters just gave up and didn't bother turning out.

[jaichind]

The impact on the Greek economy of this entire drama cannot be understated.   Whereas most projections of GDP growth for Greece in 2015 was for 2% at the beginning of this year, they mostly fallen to 0.4% by April and most projections are for -1% last week.  After the result of this vote and open talks about government backed IOUs as well as a takeover of the banking system by the Greek government I think GDP growth in 2015 will only fall to an even more negative number.   In the European context, I guess it will still be better than Ukraine which will most likely be -9% in 2015.

[jaichind]

So does this strengthen or weaken Tsipras' position? I'd say it's the latter since the creditors now realize that their demands will never be met by a Greek government so it's sensible to just cut their losses and let Greece default and exit.

I can see both.  This could strengthen  Tsipras's position in that he will have secured his left flank so he can do a deal that for political reasons he could not accept.  On the other hand, the size of the No victory ties his hands on what sort of deal he can accept.  The union set of acceptable solutions where the EU and  Tsipras can accept which was tiny got only smaller even as  Tsipras's ability to face down internal rebellions in case such a deal does take place has improved.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Finance ministry is examining options to take direct control of the banking system and replacing the BOG governor.

Reaction from here in Canada: confident in Eurozone stability, urging continued negotiation.

France realizes that the bankers are taking too hard of a line.

[Simfan34]

Surely there is no more position? It is all over, yes?

[Ebsy]

Surely there is no more position? It is all over, yes?

I guess we'll see.

[Beezer]

German SPD vice-Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel indicates Tsipras has “torn down the last bridges across which Europe and Greece could have moved toward a compromise” ...“By rejecting the rules of the game of the euro area, as expressed in the majority ‘No’ vote

The Germans are very angry. 

if there were any doubt left that the Eurozone is an antidemocratic project..

Because Gabriel has an eye on the voters that elect him?

because he alleges "Tsipras has burned the last bridges" by letting his general population directly vote on a major policy event.

if your point is this fellow is just bullsh**tting for his own purposes, that's fine.

Calling a referendum at the last minute that was nothing more than a negotiating ploy. If Tsipras cared about democracy, he would have called something weeks ago which would have given the Greek people the opportunity to have a proper debate about their future within or without the eurozone.

[jaichind]

Calling a referendum at the last minute that was nothing more than a negotiating ploy. If Tsipras cared about democracy, he would have called something weeks ago which would have given the Greek people the opportunity to have a proper debate about their future within or without the eurozone.

Yes.   I have no issues with a referendum as a way of sharing political costs of a perceived harsh but necessary deal.  What he could have done is to tell the EU, say a month ago, "You know what we Greeks want, give me the best final deal you got in 5 days.  I will then start a referendum process where we will explain the deal in practical terms as well as the pros and cons of such a deal.  We will also explain that if the Greeks do not accept the deal which is the best one you can come up with, then we have no choice but to default on the debt and exit the EUR."  That will make the EU come up with best but realistic deal possible and the Greek voters will have weeks to understand the contents and consequences of what they are voting for.  And if they vote yes,  Tsipras can correctly claim that while he did not carry out his election promises of Jan 2015 he did the best he could and the Greek population was ok with what he came up with.
 

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Calling a referendum at the last minute that was nothing more than a negotiating ploy. If Tsipras cared about democracy, he would have called something weeks ago which would have given the Greek people the opportunity to have a proper debate about their future within or without the eurozone.

Yes.   I have no issues with a referendum as a way of sharing political costs of a perceived harsh but necessary deal.  What he could have done is to tell the EU, say a month ago, "You know what we Greeks want, give me the best final deal you got in 5 days.  I will then start a referendum process where we will explain the deal in practical terms as well as the pros and cons of such a deal.  We will also explain that if the Greeks do not accept the deal which is the best one you can come up with, then we have no choice but to default on the debt and exit the EUR."  That will make the EU come up with best but realistic deal possible and the Greek voters will have weeks to understand the contents and consequences of what they are voting for.  And if they vote yes,  Tsipras can correctly claim that while he did not carry out his election promises of Jan 2015 he did the best he could and the Greek population was ok with what he came up with.
 

Clearly he thought the bankers would stop taking such a hardline nearer to the deadline. But it's clear they wanted to make an example of Greece.

[Beezer]

What he could have done is to tell the EU, say a month ago, "You know what we Greeks want, give me the best final deal you got in 5 days.  I will then start a referendum process where we will explain the deal in practical terms as well as the pros and cons of such a deal.  We will also explain that if the Greeks do not accept the deal which is the best one you can come up with, then we have no choice but to default on the debt and exit the EUR."  ...

Yup...and instead we got a 1 week populist circle jerk, complete with appeals to the most base nationalist emotions and accusations of terrorism against European institutions. Not exactly a great example of democracy at work imo.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

What he could have done is to tell the EU, say a month ago, "You know what we Greeks want, give me the best final deal you got in 5 days.  I will then start a referendum process where we will explain the deal in practical terms as well as the pros and cons of such a deal.  We will also explain that if the Greeks do not accept the deal which is the best one you can come up with, then we have no choice but to default on the debt and exit the EUR."  ...

Yup...and instead we got a 1 week populist circle jerk, complete with appeals to the most base nationalist emotions and accusations of terrorism against European institutions. Not exactly a great example of democracy at work imo.

Germans should read this before they criticize Greece.

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/feb/27/greece-spain-helped-germany-recover

[ObserverIE]

A pretty dark day for Greece. I can't imagine most No voters, mislead by a government of student union politicians, have any idea of what's going to happen now. Probably not a bad day for Europe though - we can excise a tumour.

Seriously, grow up.

Come next year, will we here in Ireland be allowed to choose a government for ourselves, or will we have you throwing another tantrum and demanding a "technocratic government" if FG/Lab aren't returned?

[ObserverIE]

My sense is that Yes will be under-polled.  So with polls on Friday neck-to-neck, it should be a comfortable Yes victory.  It should be something like a 55/45 Yes win.

Looks like I was very very very wrong.  Oh well.  Can't win them all.

It's possible that the companies conducting the polls, and the media organisations commissioning them, ended up believing their own propaganda.

Or alternatively and less charitably, that the numbers were being cooked to fit a narrative.

[ObserverIE]

That will make the EU come up with best but realistic deal possible

I have my doubts. We might instead have been treated to a dose of grandstanding and maximalism from the EU side:



That's from the Murdoch-owned Times on June 25, quoted here. It's not only the "student union politicians" who were failing to behave like adults.

[jaichind]

My sense is that Yes will be under-polled.  So with polls on Friday neck-to-neck, it should be a comfortable Yes victory.  It should be something like a 55/45 Yes win.

Looks like I was very very very wrong.  Oh well.  Can't win them all.

It's possible that the companies conducting the polls, and the media organisations commissioning them, ended up believing their own propaganda.

Or alternatively and less charitably, that the numbers were being cooked to fit a narrative.

I doubt it is as sinister as that.  I think this referendum is hard to poll given the day-to-day shifts on how is the referendum is defined.  What went wrong for the Yes vote in my view was that the vote was seen as a vote for a national unity government which could bring back guys like ND and PASOK who got Greece into the mess in the first place.  Also the Yes vote did not turn out because the Yes voter did not really believe voting Yes will make things better.  The No voter turned out believing that a No vote could make their lives better.  The No crowd celebrate tonight next to empty ATM machine which will still be empty tomorrow so the No crowds beliefs will be proven incorrect but for today they believed and won.