Greek Referendum on IMF/Troika deal

[ObserverIE]

My sense is that Yes will be under-polled.  So with polls on Friday neck-to-neck, it should be a comfortable Yes victory.  It should be something like a 55/45 Yes win.

Looks like I was very very very wrong.  Oh well.  Can't win them all.

It's possible that the companies conducting the polls, and the media organisations commissioning them, ended up believing their own propaganda.

Or alternatively and less charitably, that the numbers were being cooked to fit a narrative.

I doubt it is as sinister as that.  I think this referendum is hard to poll given the day-to-day shifts on how is the referendum is defined.  What went wrong for the Yes vote in my view was that the vote was seen as a vote for a national unity government which could bring back guys like ND and PASOK who got Greece into the mess in the first place.  Also the Yes vote did not turn out because the Yes voter did not really believe voting Yes will make things better.  The No voter turned out believing that a No vote could make their lives better.  The No crowd celebrate tonight next to empty ATM machine which will still be empty tomorrow so the No crowds beliefs will be proven incorrect but for today they believed and won.

I've said earlier that I think the EU's open desire to reinstall the same politicians who had presided over the earlier catastrophe as a "national unity" government - hell, the opposition were being brought over for meetings to Brussels - backfired spectacularly. It reminded me of nothing so much as the likes of Husak being in place in Moscow to be installed by the Soviets at the crushing of the Prague Spring.

That desire was obvious earlier in the week, but it didn't seem to affect the published polling numbers and there didn't seem to be any trend observable towards a No - and certainly not on the eventual scale. Either there were massive and systematic sampling errors going on, or there was something more "sinister" going on.

[ag]

German SPD vice-Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel indicates Tsipras has “torn down the last bridges across which Europe and Greece could have moved toward a compromise” ...“By rejecting the rules of the game of the euro area, as expressed in the majority ‘No’ vote

The Germans are very angry. 

if there were any doubt left that the Eurozone is an antidemocratic project..

Democracy implies that German voters should be heard too, shouldn´t they?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

The thing is, every government is playing an entirely "rational" game, in terms of politicking.

The Germans (and the Dutch, Finnish) politicians dont want to risk their votes; and likewise the Greeks don't want to risk votes either. This is why there needs to be a more powerful supranational legislature controlling the EU, because presently there is no accountability for the Eurozone; and these crises will occur again and again. Failing that, the Eurozone should be abolished; but I fear there is too much pride invested in the currency for that to be an outcome.

[ag]

Slovenian newspaper:

Wonderful!

And that is the name under which Greece should be made to reapply to the EU, when it feels like it is ready.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

There's so much crying, hyperbole and wishful-thinking from both sides in this thread which sorts of clouds the discussion of what the consequences of this will actually be.

Some people, just like in January, seem to have the silly idea that this all of a sudden will change the position of the Troika, or that Renzi, or good gracious Hollande for that matter, will swoop in and stand up to the "German tyrants" (or whatever some people in this thread would call them) just because they have finally heard the Greek voices loud and clear. Everybody knew that the Greeks don't like austerity measures before, in that regard, nothing has changed. The bottom line is still where it was a week ago. So everybody who now expects a cushy deal for Greece are self-delusional.

Now I wouldn't say this must mean the end for Greek participation in the Euro, as I could still imagine a potential deal which would satisfy and save the face of both sides... but it probably will be the end. Everybody who has read between the lines knows that the real question being asked in this referendum, and the reason Tsipras felt the need of it, is to have a mandate to leave the monetary part of the union if he couldn't get a favourable deal enough.

So Greece will probably be forced to leave the Euro. Which I think will be best for the Greek people in the long run. Sure, there will be economic chaos and turmoil which will hurt like hell, and many Greeks will unfortunately get squeezed by it and suffer, but it gives Greece the chance to get in control of their own monetary policy once more, which is necessary if there is ever to be a true recovery. You see, as much as I disagree with the so-called anti-austerity folk I agree with them on one thing, it is not possible for Greece to exit this crisis if the decisions are taken above their heads by other people. They themselves must be the people behind the steering wheel, not the Troika. But for that to happen they must leave the Euro behind.

So at the end of the day, I think what this vote actually means, is a nail in the coffin of the deadly idea of European federalism. And as such, I think it's the best result for all of Europe.       
 

     

[Oakvale]

A pretty dark day for Greece. I can't imagine most No voters, mislead by a government of student union politicians, have any idea of what's going to happen now. Probably not a bad day for Europe though - we can excise a tumour.

Seriously, grow up.

Come next year, will we here in Ireland be allowed to choose a government for ourselves, or will we have you throwing another tantrum and demanding a "technocratic government" if FG/Lab aren't returned?

Obviously my answer to this will be "yes, if that was a viable option". I'm not a big fan of democracy.

But more seriously I haven't posted a sincere comment in a Greece thread since 2010. I suppose it's telling about the rhetoric on both sides that my comments are accepted at face value. Sorry.

[jaichind]

Athens is quietly offering amnesty from prosecution to Greek tax evaders who have squirreled away their EUR in Swiss bank accounts, if they pay 21% tax.     The Greek government needs cash now.  Those that take this deal takes the risk of losing half the value of their EURs in case of Greek exit but does earn a get out of jail free card from the  Tsipras regime in case they get their act together and go after them.  Quite a dilemma.  

[ag]

Athens is quietly offering amnesty from prosecution to Greek tax evaders who have squirreled away their EUR in Swiss bank accounts, if they pay 21% tax.     The Greek government needs cash now.  Those that take this deal takes the risk of losing half the value of their EURs in case of Greek exit but does earn a get out of jail free card from the  Tsipras regime in case they get their act together and go after them.  Quite a dilemma.  

I would wait a few weeks. Once drachma is introduced and depreciates, it will be time to move back into Greece. Buying a small island, suddenly, seems like a nice idea

[jaichind]

Athens is quietly offering amnesty from prosecution to Greek tax evaders who have squirreled away their EUR in Swiss bank accounts, if they pay 21% tax.     The Greek government needs cash now.  Those that take this deal takes the risk of losing half the value of their EURs in case of Greek exit but does earn a get out of jail free card from the  Tsipras regime in case they get their act together and go after them.  Quite a dilemma.  

I would wait a few weeks. Once drachma is introduced and depreciates, it will be time to move back into Greece. Buying a small island, suddenly, seems like a nice idea

Yes, but that is the whole point.  In a few weeks if and when a shift away from EUR takes place, the Greek government will not be in such a hurry to offer such a good deal to EURs into Greece.   A great illustration of the time value of money.

[Tender Branson]

So, the Greeks decided yesterday not only to bite the hand that feeds them but to bite it off completely. That's roughly the signal they sent (which is not a bad thing psychologically for them, since they didn't bend over voluntarily to get fu**ed) to the other 18 finance ministers/leaders and the ECB. The best thing would now be for Greece to voluntarily exit the Eurozone, go bankrupt and start from scratch. Of course, this will be painful for the next 10-20 years - but there's an opportunity that following governments could implement the reforms necessary to make Greece more competetive again. I think that's the best way. Greece should go their own way in the future, without our money and without blackmailing the rest of Europe. Otherwise Greece would just remain a money begging pain in the ass for European taxpayers for the next generations to come.

[Helsinkian]

German SPD vice-Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel indicates Tsipras has “torn down the last bridges across which Europe and Greece could have moved toward a compromise” ...“By rejecting the rules of the game of the euro area, as expressed in the majority ‘No’ vote

The Germans are very angry. 

if there were any doubt left that the Eurozone is an antidemocratic project..

Because Gabriel has an eye on the voters that elect him?

because he alleges "Tsipras has burned the last bridges" by letting his general population directly vote on a major policy event.

if your point is this fellow is just bullsh**tting for his own purposes, that's fine.

Should the populations of Germany, Netherlands, Finland, Austria etc. also get to hold a referendum on whether they want to continue subsidizing Greece or not? Wouldn't that be the most democratic thing to do?

[Ebsy]

You haven't been subsidizing Greece, you have been subsidizing Greece's creditors.

[ag]

You haven't been subsidizing Greece, you have been subsidizing Greece's creditors.

who, in turn, have been subsidizing Greece.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

You haven't been subsidizing Greece, you have been subsidizing Greece's creditors.

who, in turn, have been subsidizing Greece.

Greece has been subsidizing Germany since they forgave some of their debt in 1953.

[Ebsy]

You haven't been subsidizing Greece, you have been subsidizing Greece's creditors.

who, in turn, have been subsidizing Greece.

Who originally held Greek bonds back in 2010-2012, when debt restructuring was completed?

[BaconBacon96]

Varoufakis has resigned.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

Varoufakis has resigned.

What!?! Why!? I thought he said he'd resign if it was a YES vote, and this obviously isn't that...

[Helsinkian]

Maybe he realised that the European leaders do not want to negotiate with a man who accuses them of being terrorists.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Varoufakis has resigned.

What!?! Why!? I thought he said he'd resign if it was a YES vote, and this obviously isn't that...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/07/greek-finance-minister-varoufakis-announces-resignation-150706042047642.html

[ag]

Well, Tsipras needs to be able to reopen at least some banks, at least with capital controls. With Varoufakis in place that was, probably, impossible.

[SPQR]

Thank God that clown is gone.

Anyway the result of the referendum is pretty clear,which is good.
It was very,very wrong to call the referendum in the first place. But now,whatever the outcome of the negotiations (if there will be any real negotiations,that is),the Greek people will have wanted it.
Honestly,it's becoming harder and harder to trust a government (and a population) who want no accountability whatsoever.
Basically their point is "we want liquidity and debt restructuring,and we'll make some reforms - but don't you dare being too strict on the dates or the content!". Oh,sure,let's all trust Tsipras' vague plan of "cutting tax evasion" for the first time in Greek history,or "12% tax on profits on firms with more than 200,000 euros in profits",because that's the way in which you stimulate growth!

I only hope they'll resist Putin's deadly embrace once they are out of the EU.

[Bacon King]

Tsipras has provided the Troika with head of Varoufakis as proof of his desire for a new deal

[BaconBacon96]

Tsipras has provided the Troika with head of Varoufakis as proof of his desire for a new deal

RIP FF.

[Antonio the Sixth]

What happens next will be the ultimate test for Europe. Can we set aside our bankrupt "morality" and shortsighted selfishness just for one second to avoid a humanitarian disaster? Or do we only care about "punishing" those who refuse to sacrifice themselves to the failed dogma of austerity?

I stand with the Greek people and their brave leader. And I stand with all Europeans who want more from their union than a neoliberal thought police.

[jaichind]

Tsipras has provided the Troika with head of Varoufakis as proof of his desire for a new deal

I do not think this changes much.  Varoufakis might have been annoying but that is just antics.  The differences over core issues remain.  Once side has to back down or ELA will just run its due course and the Greek financial system falls apart.