Greek Referendum on IMF/Troika deal

[Tetro Kornbluth]

In the past two hours, Greek PM Alexis Tsipiras has announced that within the next week(!) Greece will hold a referendum on the provisions of the current deal between the Greek Government and the various institutions which represent Greece's international creditors. This is after a previous deal consisting of raising taxes to defend pensions and social security that was almost agreed upon before some of the creditors reneged on it. The deal that will be voted afaik is a far more stringent, less favourable to SYRIZA, deal.

I will post more on this as it comes through. Discuss the referendum here.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Here is a blog post by Paul Mason giving background to the referendum, what is being asked, and what can be expected. It is full of typical Masonesque overstatement and dramatics but the best summary I can find on the web as of now.

[DavidB.]

Here is a blog post by Paul Mason giving background to the referendum, what is being asked, and what can be expected. It is full of typical Masonesque overstatement and dramatics but the best summary I can find on the web as of now.

Thanks for sharing. So, to be sure: Tsipras is going to campaign for the "no" side?

[jaichind]

ANEL calls for a vote of No on the Referendum.

[jaichind]

German finance minister Schäuble said last month that a referendum might be the right way to resolve the deadlock — though he will no doubt be furious to see the Greeks using this device to avoid a final
decision by June 30.

[jaichind]

Accommodating a referendum would be challenging. First, the ECB would have to be willing to maintain ELA to the Greek banks between now and the vote taking place. Second, creditor governments and parliaments would have to be ready to either extend the current program by a week or, be willing to retrospectively re-authorize the program upon a Yes vote. I think the ECB would not maintain or expand the current level of ELA to the Greek banks unless there was either a guarantee from the Eurogroup and / or banking restrictions — a Bank Holiday or limits on withdrawals — that would cover the period leading up to the vote. Perhaps both. This could all be done, if there is a spirit of cooperation. What is clear is that a referendum in defiance of the creditors, without agreement to stabilize the banks in the interim, would be a very different matter and would risk much more instability over the coming week.

[jaichind]

The announcement from Tsipras saw ordinary Greeks rush to withdraw cash from ATM's in the early hours of the morning. Greece's Alpha Bank seemed to stop all online transactions according to its website on Saturday morning.

[Beezer]

What a cluster. But maybe this will finally put an end to the epic mistake that was and is Greece's euro membership.

[Yelnoc]

Here is a blog post by Paul Mason giving background to the referendum, what is being asked, and what can be expected. It is full of typical Masonesque overstatement and dramatics but the best summary I can find on the web as of now.

Good for getting the basics, but this quote seems off-base.

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I'm pretty sure the Greek right is prepared to vote no. ANEL opposes the austerity deal, as I believe, do Golden Dawn.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well, that's it then isn't it. Probably.

[DavidB.]

I guess "yes" would be the best for the Greeks, but "no" would be the best for the eurozone. At this point, I don't believe we're going to get anything back from them.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

How is it even possible to organise referendum so fast?

[doktorb]

How is it even possible to organise referendum so fast?

It's not possible, but it *is* Greece.

[ag]

Well, I guess this is going to be it.

[Boston Bread]

What is SYRIZA's stance on the referendum?
This is a good call from them politik-wise, since SYRIZA won't get blamed as much. Sadly this won't help the Greeks in any way except for making them feel better about their likely decision to pull out of the Euro.

[ag]

What is SYRIZA's stance on the referendum?
This is a good call from them politik-wise, since SYRIZA won't get blamed as much. Sadly this won't help the Greeks in any way except for making them feel better about their likely decision to pull out of the Euro.

Όχι, I believe. No.

[Mehmentum]

S*** is about to go down.

[RogueBeaver]

S*** is about to go down.

[ag]

S*** is about to go down.

You mean up

[Hydera]

ND+Potami+PASOK+KIDSO+Union of centrists = 40%

So with a floor of literally 40%. The side against another bailout might want to pray that they get people who support them to vote.

Which option are unemployed greeks going to take?

[jaichind]

Two senior Greek retail bank executives said as many as 500 of the country’s more than 7,000 ATMs had run out of cash as of Saturday morning, and that some lenders may not be able open on Monday unless there was an emergency liquidity injection from the Bank of Greece.  

How this plays out will have a large impact on the results of the vote.  Those that have nothing to lose will vote no. Those with something to lose will vote yes if they see tangible signs that what they have will be gone if they vote no.

Of course 20% of Greek deposits (mostly those of the top 1%) are already out of the country.  It is the broad middle class that now has a stake in what happens next.

[Antonio the Sixth]

That was the right decision from Tsipras. Whatever comes out of it won't be good for Greece, but at least the people will have made the decision.

[ag]

That was the right decision from Tsipras. Whatever comes out of it won't be good for Greece, but at least the people will have made the decision.

One just has to be clear, that the decision is abandoning the euro - and, possibly, the EU.

[jaichind]

“We no longer have a basis for negotiation,” German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble says.  Most likely then there will be no program extension which means that next week we will see the collapse of the Greek banking system.  The Greek voter next week will now see what a disorderly transition out of the Euro looks like.  

If that is how next week plays out then we will have a chance to test out Professor Donald Kagan's theory on war.  I attend several lectures by Donald Kagan when I was in college and he was one of my favorite professors in college.  Donald Kagan main theory is "Unlike what Marxist historians claim, nations fight not for material interests but they fight for honor."  His theory is mostly developed from his study, ironically, of the relationships of Greek city states in the Classical period.  

If the Greek people votes on honor they will vote no.  If they vote on, to be fair, short term material interests, then they will vote yes.  Donald Kagan theory says they will vote no to preserve their honor.  We will see if Donald Kagan was right.

[jaichind]

A 'plain-text' reading of Greece's constitution suggests that the referendum is not legal.  Fiscal matters are specifically exempted from referendum under Article 44: "A referendum on Bills passed by Parliament regulating important social matters, with the exception of the fiscal ones shall be proclaimed by decree by the President of the Republic ...."

This point has been raised by several opposition leaders in Greece, including former Deputy Prime Minister Venizelos. However, Tsipras has argued that the vote is to validate negotiations with lenders, not the government's fiscal policy. Ultimately, President Pavlopoulos will need to make the final call, based on arguments put forward in an extraordinary parliamentary session today.