Greek Referendum on IMF/Troika deal
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  Greek Referendum on IMF/Troika deal
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Author Topic: Greek Referendum on IMF/Troika deal  (Read 73241 times)
jaichind
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« Reply #25 on: June 27, 2015, 08:35:28 AM »

"We believe that there is a strong chance of capital controls being imposed in Greece through the ECB increasing haircuts on the ELA it provides the Greek banking system (even though Greek officials expressed confidence on Friday night that Greek banks would open on Monday)," Barclays analysts said in a client note published today.
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jaichind
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« Reply #26 on: June 27, 2015, 10:01:05 AM »

Eurozone finance ministers refused Saturday to extend Greece's bailout program past June 30 after Athens called a referendum on reform proposals by creditors.
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Velasco
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« Reply #27 on: June 27, 2015, 10:06:59 AM »

If the Greek people votes on honor they will vote no.  If they vote on, to be fair, short term material interests, then they will vote yes.  Donald Kagan theory says they will vote no to preserve their honor.  We will see if Donald Kagan was right.

Do you think so? Is there some "honor" to protect after years of being trampled by the Troika? Greek people has a dignity, but if they vote "no" it will be probably due to weariness and exhaustion. From a materialistic perspective they have very little to gain voting "yes", because the deal is basically more of the same medicine whose effects they now well. Thus, there's not an actual choice between "honor" and "material interests". They are condemned to suffer anyway and the path of austerity does not represent a promise of a better future. If they choose "no", even if they are motivated by "honor" and "dignity", I'm afraid that won't prove the theories of a certain Kagan.
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jaichind
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« Reply #28 on: June 27, 2015, 10:10:58 AM »

The latest news is that Eurozone finance ministers will now meet again without the Greek Finance minister present.  In the meantime they called off their press conference. 
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #29 on: June 27, 2015, 10:33:31 AM »

Eurozone finance ministers refused Saturday to extend Greece's bailout program past June 30 after Athens called a referendum on reform proposals by creditors.

Looks like they are finally pulling the plug on Greece, which is about time. Greece's hostage taking of the rest of Europe needs to stop.

Greece acts like a long-term unemployed bum who's repeatedly unwilling to take up job offers, while begging for more money.

Time to turn out the lights, so that Greece can start from scratch - with their own currency.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #30 on: June 27, 2015, 10:43:51 AM »

The Eurogroup has just announced that GREXIT will happen Tuesday night.

They are now debating about how to secure the rest of the Eurozone while Greece has already left the talks.
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jaichind
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« Reply #31 on: June 27, 2015, 10:47:43 AM »

Just under half of Greeks, or 47.2%, would vote yes in a referendum on a deal  to unlock aid for the country, compared with 33% who would vote no, according to a Kapa Poll for To Vima newspaper.
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rob in cal
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« Reply #32 on: June 27, 2015, 10:59:06 AM »

   I'm still wondering if Grexit will really happen, if only because of the precedent it would be setting.  If it goes ahead, and Greece actually starts rebounding economically in a few years, would that not be a clear examples to other weak economies in the eurozone that leaving it isn't the end of the world.  Or perhaps its the case that Germany and other strong economies in the eurozone are now thinking that a smaller eurozone, precedent or not precedent, is a good thing.
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jaichind
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« Reply #33 on: June 27, 2015, 11:01:45 AM »

If the Greek people votes on honor they will vote no.  If they vote on, to be fair, short term material interests, then they will vote yes.  Donald Kagan theory says they will vote no to preserve their honor.  We will see if Donald Kagan was right.

Do you think so? Is there some "honor" to protect after years of being trampled by the Troika? Greek people has a dignity, but if they vote "no" it will be probably due to weariness and exhaustion. From a materialistic perspective they have very little to gain voting "yes", because the deal is basically more of the same medicine whose effects they now well. Thus, there's not an actual choice between "honor" and "material interests". They are condemned to suffer anyway and the path of austerity does not represent a promise of a better future. If they choose "no", even if they are motivated by "honor" and "dignity", I'm afraid that won't prove the theories of a certain Kagan.

The economic adjustment Greece must go through will be born by the middle and lower classes.  One way or another the standard of living will fall to 1980s if not 1970s levels.  That is already set in stone.  The only question now is how should that adjustment take.  Should it be a slow girding process with the help and financing of the EU or will be a sudden catastrophic event?  One the long run it might be that shock therapy is better but from the view of a typical middle class Greek a slow but  will be better on the short run.  So the vote will be for a slow humiliating process of adjustment or a fast but honorable exit with massive short term economic dislocation.  If the EU, as it seems it will, cuts off funding then the Greek banks will blow up next week giving the Greek middle and lower-middle class a taste of what shock therapy will look like.  Then they have a choice between that and a slow humiliating process toward the same result with an adjustment period financed by those that are the source of the humiliation.    So when I speak of the trade-off between honor and material interests I am really talking about short term interests.
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jaichind
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« Reply #34 on: June 27, 2015, 11:06:03 AM »

Greek Finance Minister Varoufakis does not answer the question if Greece will make the June 30 payment to IMF.  This is so sad. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #35 on: June 27, 2015, 11:08:05 AM »

ECB said to review Greek bank' emergency liquidity (ELA) Sunday.  I do not see why they will extend it.  All the collateral in the form of Greek bonds now should be valued at zero or near zero unless ECB see some polls that show that Yes will win in a landslide.
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jaichind
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« Reply #36 on: June 27, 2015, 11:25:26 AM »

   I'm still wondering if Grexit will really happen, if only because of the precedent it would be setting.  If it goes ahead, and Greece actually starts rebounding economically in a few years, would that not be a clear examples to other weak economies in the eurozone that leaving it isn't the end of the world.  Or perhaps its the case that Germany and other strong economies in the eurozone are now thinking that a smaller eurozone, precedent or not precedent, is a good thing.

I am not sure sure that a separate currency will lead to an economic boom.  For sure it will be better than today where the Greeks has priced themselves out of the market.  Greece will be shut out of the international debt markets so that will hold back development.  For sure service industries like tourism will boom.  But unless Greece has its own capital good industry it will have to import capital goods for its industry to take advantage of the price advantage of a weaker currency.  But it does not so it will have to import capital goods from places like Germany or even PRC where its weaker currency will actually act as a detriment.  I suspect Greece post-Grexit a few years from now will still be struggling economically with a rising tourist sector and a industrial sector that is still struggling with overall standard of living much lower than today and stagnating.  A decade or two from now I do see chances of solid economic recovery as the economy adjusts to the new reality.
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Simfan34
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« Reply #37 on: June 27, 2015, 11:55:48 AM »
« Edited: June 27, 2015, 11:58:19 AM by Governor Simfan34 »

The Eurogroup has just announced that GREXIT will happen Tuesday night.

They are now debating about how to secure the rest of the Eurozone while Greece has already left the talks.

I don't see this anywhere.

Maybe the government can make the payment if they start raiding banks' holdings in de-facto levies.
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BundouYMB
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« Reply #38 on: June 27, 2015, 12:13:20 PM »

ND+Potami+PASOK+KIDSO+Union of centrists = 40%

So with a floor of literally 40%. The side against another bailout might want to pray that they get people who support them to vote.

No, no they are not. That's what they registered at the last election. Current polls have them lower, and have SYRIZA close to 50%. A Public Issue poll from earlier this month (the most recent poll) had the following results:

SYRIZA -- 47.5% (up 13.2%)
ND -- 19.5% (down 8.3%)
XA -- 6.5% (up 0.2%)
POTAMI -- 6.5%(up 0.4%)
KKE -- 5.5%(no change)
PASOK -- 4.5% (down 0.2%)
ANEL -- 4.0% (down 0.8%)
EK -- 2.0% (up 0.2%)
Others -- 4.0% (down 0.2%)

(KIDSO is more or less dead.)

ND+POTAMI+PASOK+EK = 32.5 (down 10.4%)
SYRIZA+ANEL = 51.5% (up 10.4%)
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ag
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« Reply #39 on: June 27, 2015, 12:49:26 PM »

   I'm still wondering if Grexit will really happen, if only because of the precedent it would be setting.  If it goes ahead, and Greece actually starts rebounding economically in a few years, would that not be a clear examples to other weak economies in the eurozone that leaving it isn't the end of the world.  Or perhaps its the case that Germany and other strong economies in the eurozone are now thinking that a smaller eurozone, precedent or not precedent, is a good thing.

Oh, they will start rebounding. It is just from where.
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ag
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« Reply #40 on: June 27, 2015, 12:53:16 PM »

It would have been so much better if all this were accompanied by a European program designed to somewhat soften the impact of what is coming up on the population. This is what they should have been discussing all this time. And none of it seems likely now.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #41 on: June 27, 2015, 01:28:20 PM »

It would have been so much better if all this were accompanied by a European program designed to somewhat soften the impact of what is coming up on the population. This is what they should have been discussing all this time. And none of it seems likely now.

I was idly wondering the other day whether maybe it would have made sense to propose some form of aid to social services alongside any demanded structural economic reforms of whatever. Bit late now I guess.
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BigSkyBob
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« Reply #42 on: June 27, 2015, 01:39:58 PM »

Open emigration to the Northern Europe might end at any time after Tuesday.

Just saying.
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ag
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« Reply #43 on: June 27, 2015, 01:46:01 PM »

It would have been so much better if all this were accompanied by a European program designed to somewhat soften the impact of what is coming up on the population. This is what they should have been discussing all this time. And none of it seems likely now.

I was idly wondering the other day whether maybe it would have made sense to propose some form of aid to social services alongside any demanded structural economic reforms of whatever.

May be, it would also have made sense to ask.
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Velasco
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« Reply #44 on: June 27, 2015, 02:11:07 PM »

The economic adjustment Greece must go through will be born by the middle and lower classes.  

For what reason? Why the 'adjustment' must fall on middle and lower classes? Are upper classes exempted in completion of some divine law? Are you sure that there are no other options? Defaulting on the IMF and ECB, for instance? Have you considered the moral and political implications of your assertion?
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ag
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« Reply #45 on: June 27, 2015, 02:32:11 PM »

The economic adjustment Greece must go through will be born by the middle and lower classes.  

For what reason? Why the 'adjustment' must fall on middle and lower classes? Are upper classes exempted in completion of some divine law? Are you sure that there are no other options? Defaulting on the IMF and ECB, for instance? Have you considered the moral and political implications of your assertion?

He simply has considered the implications of defaulting on IMF and ECB.
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Velasco
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« Reply #46 on: June 27, 2015, 02:40:40 PM »

He simply has considered the implications of defaulting on IMF and ECB.

He implicitly admitted that the choice is between sudden impact and agony, given that apparently is "set in stone" that both ways lead to impoverishment. Do you think is better defaulting on lower and middle classes?
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ag
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« Reply #47 on: June 27, 2015, 02:46:55 PM »

He simply has considered the implications of defaulting on IMF and ECB.

He implicitly admitted that the choice is between sudden impact and agony, given that apparently is "set in stone" that both ways lead to impoverishment. Do you think is better defaulting on lower and middle classes?

Ah, but all options include that, I am afraid. There is no choice there. At least none, that anybody - including the current Greek government - would consider.
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Velasco
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« Reply #48 on: June 27, 2015, 03:00:40 PM »

He simply has considered the implications of defaulting on IMF and ECB.

He implicitly admitted that the choice is between sudden impact and agony, given that apparently is "set in stone" that both ways lead to impoverishment. Do you think is better defaulting on lower and middle classes?

Ah, but all options include that, I am afraid. There is no choice there. At least none, that anybody - including the current Greek government - would consider.

If there's no choice is because some of the parts involved want it in that way. In case there had been an actual interest in finding some relief for Greece, they would have considered options like the one exposed above. Needless to say that all is morally nauseating.
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ag
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« Reply #49 on: June 27, 2015, 03:07:23 PM »

He simply has considered the implications of defaulting on IMF and ECB.

He implicitly admitted that the choice is between sudden impact and agony, given that apparently is "set in stone" that both ways lead to impoverishment. Do you think is better defaulting on lower and middle classes?

Ah, but all options include that, I am afraid. There is no choice there. At least none, that anybody - including the current Greek government - would consider.

If there's no choice is because some of the parts involved want it in that way. In case there had been an actual interest in finding some relief for Greece, they would have considered options like the one exposed above. Needless to say that all is morally nauseating.

No Greek government has ever asked for anything that would realistically help its middle class or its poor. Most definitely, THIS Greek government has not. They cared too much about pride and not enough about their own people.
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