Greek Referendum on IMF/Troika deal

[jaichind]

In the end it was SYRIZA, ANEL, and Golden Dawn that voted for the Referendum Proposal.  KKE actually voted against which just shows how sectarian KKE is.  This is a vote where one would expect to vote it.  But KKE rather vote with ND than with SYRIZA.

[BaconBacon96]

S*** is about to go down.

[Boston Bread]

In the end it was SYRIZA, ANEL, and Golden Dawn that voted for the Referendum Proposal.  KKE actually voted against which just shows how sectarian KKE is.  This is a vote where one would expect to vote it.  But KKE rather vote with ND than with SYRIZA.

It would be hilarious if KKE supporters cause a Yes win.

[Bacon King]

I doubt many KKE supporters will be voting Yes in the referendum

[BaconBacon96]

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-33303105

Jesus.

[jaichind]

Its starting.  Israel and Saudi markets down about 1.7% from thursday.  Since the MSCI world index fell about 0.3% from thursday to friday, one can infer about a fall of 1.4% in these two markets on the news  of Greek Referendum.  A lot will depend on the ECB decision on ELA.  So far it seems ECB has frozen ELA support for Greece but a final call will be made later.  In the meantime Lagarde says IMF cannot lend to Greece If June 30th payment missed.  So if ELA is left frozen I have no idea where Greece will get the cash it needs Monday.   

[jaichind]

I doubt many KKE supporters will be voting Yes in the referendum

Some might out of strategic reasons.  A Yes vote might lead to a split and collapse of SYRIZA.  In which case KKE will become the dominate party on the Far Left again.  Of course a No vote an the chaos of the Greek exit could have the same affect.

[minionofmidas]

How is it even possible to organise referendum so fast?

Printing pieces of paper with "yes" and "no" on it is very easy, and most real countries still have government printing presses that can do that at very short notice. Paper is a commodity, and has been since the mid 19th century.

And Greece has archaic-sounding but very functional rules regarding polling stations and pollworkers (and poll opening hours!) - always your local state primary school, all the teaching staff (and from dusk till dawn). So no pesky negotiations to rent precinct locations, perhaps not even a need to send out voter notifications.

[jaichind]

ECB decided on Sunday to freeze level of emergency aid at friday's levels.   ECB said to view it as necessary for Greece to impose a holiday on its banks as of Monday as such levels will not be sufficient for the Greek banking system to operate. 

[ag]

What will they pay the printing press employees with? Scrip printed on the same press?

[jaichind]

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-33303105

Jesus.

Lets be clear.  ELA was originally intended as a lifeline for solvent lenders that get into a cash jam.  Banks receive cash in the form of very low interest loans in return for "collateral", high-quality assets, preferably sovereign bonds, placed at the central bank as guarantee.  It was not meant to be a tool keep the entire Greek economy alive while bailout negotiations continued.

Currently the collateral are Greek bonds which given the risk of total default as a result of the risk of the referendum should really be valued at zero.  For sure it is not high-quality.  Frankly the ECB is quite justified by the recent events to pull the plug completely and demand all their money back from all the free financing the Greek banks received last few months.  To say they will just freeze the friday's levels of ELA is bending backwards.  It will not be enough of course signs of panic is already beginning to gather and the Greek banks will be sunk by Monday.  

[jaichind]

June 28 (AFP) -- The German foreign ministry recommended Sunday that Germans travelling to Greece to "take sufficient amounts of cash" as the country was hurtling towards a banking crisis.  With Greece a top vacation spot for Germans, the foreign ministry urged tourists them to keep tabs on the evolving situation and check for any updates to its travel recommendations.

[ag]

The situation it inherited was bad, but this government simply went suicidal.

[swl]

The European Commission published the latest draft proposals at the time the negotiations broke down, so that should be what the Greeks are asked to vote on: http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-15-5270_en.htm

On the referendum, my opinion is that it should have happened earlier.

[Paleobrazilian]

Looks like Tsipras' bold move may work after all.



Also, there's the tricky question involving the legality of Grexit. Grexit would probably depend on Greece leaving the European Union and that would be a disaster (yet another one) for the EU.

I don't really like Tsipras but he may well end up winning this battle.

[Velasco]

Paul Krugman thinks that Tsipras made the correct decision. It's the "Europe's Moment of Truth", he says.

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/06/27/europes-moment-of-truth/?smid=tw-NytimesKrugman&seid=auto&_r=1

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I've just read a brutal article written by Wolfgang Münchau a couple of weeks ago warning that the Eurozone crisis will last 20 years.

[jaichind]

Tsipras announced that the Greek banks will be shut on Monday and capital controls imposed to prevent withdrawals, after cash machines ran dry.   Athens stock exchange will also be shut down.

[Beezer]

I don't really like Tsipras but he may well end up winning this battle.

Winning what battle? Any deal will involve more austerity. Greece's economy is probably now in as crappy a state as it was during the height of the crisis. People or companies that might have thought about investing in the place will continue to give it a wide berth. You now have capital controls, something that you did not have even during the darkest days in 2011.

[Velasco]

Finding a "sustainable solution that puts Greece on a path toward reform and recovery within the Eurozone" and including (key point) a discussion on a potential debt relief for Greece would be a little victory for everybody (with the exception of austerity mongers, sadists and people with a taste for revenge, of course).

[Beet]

It's funny how much the debate over capital controls has shifted in the past 20 years.

[Famous Mortimer]

Supported SYRIZA up until the point. Supported leaving the EU. How is closing down the banks a good thing though?

[jaichind]

Supported SYRIZA up until the point. Supported leaving the EU. How is closing down the banks a good thing though?

But they have no choice.  With the runs on the banks already building up and no extra funding from ELA this is the only alternative to basic meltdown of the Greek financial system. 

[jaichind]

Barclays view report to clients claim that A "Yes" vote, "may trigger a national-unity government."  Under this scenario, "it is highly likely that Tsipras and possibly the entire government would step down, even if other options are also possible, such as PM Tsipras staying in power and accepting the deal with the Institutions." In the event Tsipras steps down, "moderate Syriza MPs could join other moderate parties (PASOK, Potami and ND) into a national unity coalition," one where "the new government would re-engage with the Institutions to sign an agreement as per the mandate given by the referendum." Under this scenario there could be "snap elections" but likely not until after summer. "Market reaction would likely be positive immediately after the referendum," but still "volatility is likely to remain elevated until a new and stable government is put in place and a programme is approved."

[jaichind]

Spooked by rumors concerning impending fuel shortages, drivers are flooding gas stations across Greece, leading the country's largest refiner to issue a statement reassuring there are enough reserves.

[Zanas]

I don't see how one can still qualify the Institutions and the parties who follow them as "moderates", when all they're trying to do is make the rich Greeks richer at the expense of every other Greek, even if they have to die in the process...

What Greece now needs is a dictatorship of the proletariat. If you're not familiar with the concept, read about it before insulting me.

What Tsipras should tell the Eurozone and the EU is basically : "F**k nearly every one of you".

Oh and f**k nearly every one of you. Except Velasco. I love you.