Greek Referendum on IMF/Troika deal

[jaichind]

Schaeuble seems to indicate no deal until referendum but implicitly indicating that EU will start talking if the referendum is canceled.

[jaichind]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-01/it-s-not-all-greek-to-voters-as-key-debt-document-mistranslated

Key Greek Referendum Debt Document Mistranslated

"The official translation provided by the Foreign Ministry and sent to reporters on Monday, though, was missing the word “no.” So the Greek text reads that there is a sustainability issue."

Sigh.  This is such a mess.  I guess it does not matter since only 1% of the voters will bother reading the document.

[RogueBeaver]

Council of Europe said Greferendum falls short of European standards, a description last applied to Crimea.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Council of Europe said Greferendum falls short of European standards, a description last applied to Crimea.

Why exactly?

No matter how the question is worded, the Greek know full well what's at stake.

[jaichind]

So what is Tsipras's position now on the referendum?  Since he wrote a letter accepting pretty much most of the bailout terms which he previously rejected, will he now advise the Greek people to vote Yes or No on the referendum?  Of course they are voting on a set of terms which are no longer valid as they expired already.   

[Zanas]

Couldn't we set up a rule on this board that banks, stock exchanges, notation agencies or any other consulting firms or betting markets are NOT good indicators of where an election is going, even less so than pollsters, and that we should stop posting their prospects. Geez this is getting annoying. Of course JP Morgan or MyBalls Ltd banking consulting agency will say they expect a Yes vote ! I get really tired.

[jaichind]

Tsipras calls for a vote of No on referendum. 

[Beezer]

I have to say that all of this is highly entertaining. It's quite clear that the eurozone will not offer a better deal, regardless of the referendum's outcome. So either Tsipras is deluding himself and his voters or he is actively pushing for a Grexit with his combattive rhetoric.

BTW, no campaign poster on the Greek finance ministry:

[jaichind]

Couldn't we set up a rule on this board that banks, stock exchanges, notation agencies or any other consulting firms or betting markets are NOT good indicators of where an election is going, even less so than pollsters, and that we should stop posting their prospects. Geez this is getting annoying. Of course JP Morgan or MyBalls Ltd banking consulting agency will say they expect a Yes vote ! I get really tired.

I disagree. I feel that projections from polls, betting markets, key stakeholders such as research firms or investments banks are quite relevant.  Yes all of them have been wrong before and all of them have biases, some intentional and some institutional, but this is a thread about a vote and we all post our views on what the results might be and possible consequences of said results.  And all things equal all these things are more right than wrong in the past.  Views derived from other sources of these interested parties  are quite relevant to the discussion. 

[Beezer]

http://www.euro2day.gr/news/economy/article/1345574/prohgeitai-to-nai-se-dhmoskophsh-gpo.html

[BundouYMB]

Good job ignoring the three other polls that came out today with No leads. ProRata has No up 54-33, Focus (??) has No up 40-37, and trusty Palmost Analysis has No up 52-37.

[Mehmentum]

Given the chaotic and changing nature of the situation, I don't think we'll have a good idea how this will turn out until the day of the referendum.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Yanis Varoufakis' 6 reasons to vote NO on Sunday

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I've bolded five because..... he doesn't really believe that, does he?

[ag]

Yanis Varoufakis' 6 reasons to vote NO on Sunday

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I've bolded five because..... he doesn't really believe that, does he?

This guy is bluffing with a very poor hand. When everything is over, he will have a lot to respond for.

[jaichind]

Good job ignoring the three other polls that came out today with No leads. ProRata has No up 54-33, Focus (??) has No up 40-37, and trusty Palmost Analysis has No up 52-37.

See

Efsyn poll has 30/57 for Yes/No before capital controls/banking holiday.  Same poll has 37/46 for Yes/No after capital controls/banking holiday.

A lot has to do with when the poll was done, before or after the bank holiday.  We should weight more polls that were taken later in the week.  The GPO poll which shows 47/43 is more valid than the ones taken earlier in the week although I agree some of the ones taken later in the week also show a lead for No.

[BaconBacon96]

Thing is, it was the EU who were the first to declare that a No votes means exiting the Euro, not Syriza. They can say they're being forced out by creditors who don't want to properly negotiate, even though they want to stay in

Obviously that's not accurate- but the Europeans have shot themselves in the foot by coming out and saying No means leaving first. If they didn't, they would have forced the Greek government's hand if No won.

[jaichind]

This guy is bluffing with a very poor hand. When everything is over, he will have a lot to respond for.

Not sure about that.   What he is really saying is that the EU is bluffing which in theory still could be correct although it is unlikely.   If the vote is No and entire Greek financial system melts down and is forced into its own currency, he can still claim that this is the acts of a vengeful Merkel led cabal that is stopping the EU majority that wants to renegotiate with Greece with new compromise terms.   A rational EU, he will claim, would have realized their bluff failed but he is dealing with an irrational EU leadership.

[ag]

Thing is, it was the EU who were the first to declare that a No votes means exiting the Euro, not Syriza. They can say they're being forced out by creditors who don't want to properly negotiate, even though they want to stay in

Obviously that's not accurate- but the Europeans have shot themselves in the foot by coming out and saying No means leaving first. If they didn't, they would have forced the Greek government's hand if No won.

Shot who in the foot? Who do they have defend themselves to on this?

[ag]

This guy is bluffing with a very poor hand. When everything is over, he will have a lot to respond for.

Not sure about that.   What he is really saying is that the EU is bluffing which in theory still could be correct although it is unlikely.   If the vote is No and entire Greek financial system melts down and is forced into its own currency, he can still claim that this is the acts of a vengeful Merkel led cabal that is stopping the EU majority that wants to renegotiate with Greece with new compromise terms.   A rational EU, he will claim, would have realized their bluff failed but he is dealing with an irrational EU leadership.

He can claim this, of course: to his students. The question is, will anybody take it seriously.

He is, at best, holding his own people hostage: give me what I want, or I will shoot these nice old Greek ladies. He simply has no other cards to play with.

[jaichind]

http://ekloges.ypes.gr/current/e/public/index.html#{"cls":"main","params":{}}

Seems to be the link to referendum results on Sunday.

[jaichind]

Another thing that occurred to me.  This referendum will cost 110 million euros.  This is relevant since the core problem her the Greek government is running out of money yet they still found the money to fund the referendum. 

[BaconBacon96]

Thing is, it was the EU who were the first to declare that a No votes means exiting the Euro, not Syriza. They can say they're being forced out by creditors who don't want to properly negotiate, even though they want to stay in

Obviously that's not accurate- but the Europeans have shot themselves in the foot by coming out and saying No means leaving first. If they didn't, they would have forced the Greek government's hand if No won.

Shot who in the foot? Who do they have defend themselves to on this?

They have to defend themselves to the Greek people, if they want a Yes victory on the 5th. Making declarations such as No means Grexit, however true they may be, only plays into the government's argument that the creditors are trying to intimidate the Greek people into submitting to their demands.

[jaichind]

They have to defend themselves to the Greek people, if they want a Yes victory on the 5th. Making declarations such as No means Grexit, however true they may be, only plays into the government's argument that the creditors are trying to intimidate the Greek people into submitting to their demands.

Yes, from the EU leadership point of view, that is a risk especially if there is an impression that the current hardship due to bank holiday was imposed by the EU on Greece versus something the Greek government brought on itself.  But it is also a risk for the EU to let the Greek voting population think that voting No will bring a better deal.  And giving the impression that a No vote means exit from Euro is the upside that the Greek population will be so desperate that they will vote Yes to save what they have left.  It seems that overall the EU made the judgement call to take this risk to get that upside.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Paddy Power offered odds of 2/7 – representing an 80 percent chance of a Yes vote.  It indicates that 85% of all bets are for Yes.

That's odd because 3 of the 4 polls here have No ahead, and 2 by a large margin
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_bailout_referendum,_2015

[jaichind]

Paddy Power offered odds of 2/7 – representing an 80 percent chance of a Yes vote.  It indicates that 85% of all bets are for Yes.

That's odd because 3 of the 4 polls here have No ahead, and 2 by a large margin
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_bailout_referendum,_2015

I agree. I guess the punters are betting on
a) The trend is toward Yes, especially after the bank holiday
b) The shy Yes voter that will say to the pollster a nationalist patriotic No but will then vote Yes come election to protect what is left of their assets.