Greek Referendum on IMF/Troika deal

[ag]

Thing is, it was the EU who were the first to declare that a No votes means exiting the Euro, not Syriza. They can say they're being forced out by creditors who don't want to properly negotiate, even though they want to stay in

Obviously that's not accurate- but the Europeans have shot themselves in the foot by coming out and saying No means leaving first. If they didn't, they would have forced the Greek government's hand if No won.

Shot who in the foot? Who do they have defend themselves to on this?

 if they want a Yes victory on the 5th.

Do they?

Remember: for Germans it is a relatively minor issue. Your average Bavarian voter might only be happy that a house on Mikonos is cheap.

[ag]

Thing is, it was the EU who were the first to declare that a No votes means exiting the Euro, not Syriza. They can say they're being forced out by creditors who don't want to properly negotiate, even though they want to stay in

Obviously that's not accurate- but the Europeans have shot themselves in the foot by coming out and saying No means leaving first. If they didn't, they would have forced the Greek government's hand if No won.

Shot who in the foot? Who do they have defend themselves to on this?

They have to defend themselves to the Greek people,

Most important, actually. They do not have to. Greeks do not even elect a non-voting member of the Bundestag.

[ag]

Thing is, it was the EU who were the first to declare that a No votes means exiting the Euro, not Syriza. They can say they're being forced out by creditors who don't want to properly negotiate, even though they want to stay in

Obviously that's not accurate- but the Europeans have shot themselves in the foot by coming out and saying No means leaving first. If they didn't, they would have forced the Greek government's hand if No won.

Shot who in the foot? Who do they have defend themselves to on this?

They have to defend themselves to the Greek people, if they want a Yes victory on the 5th. Making declarations such as No means Grexit, however true they may be, only plays into the government's argument that the creditors are trying to intimidate the Greek people into submitting to their demands.

And, finally, if the Greeks decide to cut off their ears to spite the grandma, it is up to them. The old lady merely told them not to play with the knife.

[Dan the Roman]

I think even Athens has begun to grasp in the 24hrs exactly how little interest Germany has at this point in Greece remaining within the Euro.

[ag]

I think even Athens has begun to grasp in the 24hrs exactly how little interest Germany has at this point in Greece remaining within the Euro.

At this point, I am afraid, Mr. Varoufakis should be standing on his knees in Berlin, pleading with Mme. Merkel for European solidarity and promising to personally wash dishes in the Bundestag cafeteria.  He does not have many other cards to play.

[jaichind]

Varoufakis: "I'll Resign If Greece Referendum Is 'Yes'"

[jaichind]

In an ironic statement the National Bank of Greece said it wanted to "inform individuals and companies that during the short-term bank holidays" that all of its ATMs "accepts cash deposits".

[Velasco]

I think even Athens has begun to grasp in the 24hrs exactly how little interest Germany has at this point in Greece remaining within the Euro.

At this point, I am afraid, Mr. Varoufakis should be standing on his knees in Berlin, pleading with Mme. Merkel for European solidarity and promising to personally wash dishes in the Bundestag cafeteria.  He does not have many other cards to play.

I assume that you would be pleased with that, right? Probably Frau Merkel would like to see all of us, lazy southerners, washing dishes or wearing livery. In my opinion, we should turn the so-called European Union into a theme park. It would be called Euro Dystopia and it would have some features borrowed from Euro Disney. Some friendly guides, disguised as Juncker and wearing Mickey Mouse ears on the head, will show you the attractions including, among other wonders, your Greeks washing dishes in the Norman Foster's Bundestag. Seated upon her throne, Mme Merkel would smile with condescension dressed like Daisy. Things are ugly enough to care about blabbering here, honestly. Enjoy your hatred, folks.

[Beezer]

I'm all for a Juncker themed bar where you can get wasted just like the prez.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Suddenly this discussion has taken a weird turn...

[Tetro Kornbluth]

An NSA hack from the horses' mouth



TW: Vox.com - Vox have an interesting theory about this

[Bacon King]

Good job ignoring the three other polls that came out today with No leads. ProRata has No up 54-33, Focus (??) has No up 40-37, and trusty Palmost Analysis has No up 52-37.

Focus is just the name of the radio station that published the poll. It was conducted by a small-time pollster called To The Point.


Here's how accurate each of the four pollsters were in their last 2015 election poll, to compare bias as well as general competency:

GPO (Yes +3.9): overestimated ND by +1.8, overestimated SYRIZA by +0.7, underestimated ANEL by -0.9

To The Point (No + 3.2): overestimated ND by +2.8, underestimated SYRIZA by -1.7, off by 1.0 or more with PASOK, ANEL, KKE, Potomi

ProRata (No + 21.0): overestimated Potami by +1.5, all other parties accurate within +/- 0.5

Palmos Analysis (No + 15.0): underestimated ND by -2.3, overestimated Potami by +1.5, underestimated ANEL by -0.8, all other parties accurate +/- 0.5

[The Other Castro]

So, do the betting markets really think the polls are going to be that wrong?

[jaichind]

So, do the betting markets really think the polls are going to be that wrong?

The betting markets seems to have Yes/No chances at around 66%/33%.  I guess if there are some polls which shows Yes ahead it is not absurd but I agreed that there are polls that show No ahead.

[Antonio the Sixth]

To be fair, the results of a poll like that are almost entirely unpredictable. Too many unforeseen factors that could change everything until the very last moment.

So, market predictions are worthless, but so are polls.

[jaichind]

Thousands of KKE supporters held a rally in Athens Thursday calling for people to defy the government and vote with fake ballot papers at the referendum.  Not sure if that is the official position of KKE, which seems to be abstain.

[BaconBacon96]

Thousands of KKE supporters held a rally in Athens Thursday calling for people to defy the government and vote with fake ballot papers at the referendum.  Not sure if that is the official position of KKE, which seems to be abstain.

Oh KKE so edgy.

[Oakvale]

Varoufakis: "I'll Resign If Greece Referendum Is 'Yes'"

Surely this is the most compelling case for a Yes yet?

[ag]

...would like to see all of us, lazy southerners, washing dishes or wearing livery.

...

Enjoy your hatred, folks.

Well, you've asked for it. If you noticed, I am Mexican.

You, guys, have won a lottery.   I have lived in Madrid: I have seen that metro system, AVE rail,  those highways - all built, largely, with European money. You have free mobility with some of the richest countries in the world. When trouble comes, you get to count on the ECB saving your banks.

We, in contrast, have to have a visa to so much as stop to pee in the airport of our big northern neighbor. US may, on occasion, contribute a bit to our military to go on fighting the drug cartels for them. And, yeah, there was that bailout when shyte hit the fan in 1994 (USD$50 bln dollar credit line - never fully used and fully repaid in some 5 years). We would never get anything like the ECB guarantees you get. But we still are grateful - it was very kind of our neighbors to, actually, save us. They did not have to - and we know that.

What is Spain without Europe? A poorer version of Mexico - without natural resources and with a special propensity for military dictatorships. As recently as 40 years ago more people were migrating to Latin America from Spain than the other way around (and that has always been the norm). It is Europe that made you ino the "First World".

All your concern about solidarity and justice stops at the Mediterrainean (ok, at the gates of Melilla). Why should the German money be used to build up YOUR subway, and not that in Casablanca? What is the difference between you, who can go to Amsterdam and work without any need for a permit, and that Nigerian or Syrian guy who takes the leaking boat - or my compatriot, who right now walks across the Arizona desert, hunted by the border patrol and dying of thirst? And you are going to talk to me about justice?

You won the lottery. And you dare complain that the money might run out. And you are upset that people do not feel very sorry for you. Well, here is why.

[ag]

Varoufakis: "I'll Resign If Greece Referendum Is 'Yes'"

Surely this is the most compelling case for a Yes yet?

Unless you happen to be an economics student at the University of Athens. In which case you would, probably, do anything to avoid him coming back.

[jaichind]

The whose premise of Tsipras argument for a vote for No is that the Euro is bluffing.  Greece cannot pay the debt anyway so might as well work with Greece after a No vote to work out a deal.  In other words EU is facing  the Tony Soprano problem: What to do with with a guy that does not have the money to pay the money he owes Soprano.  Of course Tsipras should remember that Tony Soprano normally use threats of violence to force the person to pay up, and make it clear that they don't much care what you need to do to get the money. Killing the debtor would only be used if it was clear that there's no way the guy could pay, and if it might be useful to kill them to make sure others do pay up.  So the presence of other debtors in the EU should alarm Tsipras to the fact that Greece having no money is not the only factor in play in weather they are bluffing about the consequences of a No vote. 

[Velasco]

All your concern about solidarity and justice stops at the Mediterrainean (ok, at the gates of Melilla).

I won't bother to type a reply to your previous post, but I must say that is false. Not all people in Spain and other southern countries is as indifferent to the drama, at the gates of Melilla or at the shores of Lampedusa, as people in other places of Europe*. Note that I'm saying "people"; our government stinks in that regard as it does in many others. There are many examples of solidarity that I could mention. Your tone sounds a bit insulting, to be honest. Anyway, I don't care too much and I'm not resentful. Have a good day.    

*On a side note, a sample of EU hypocrisy on the subject can be found in the last summit on migration, failed as usual due to "national egoisms".

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/06/25/us-europe-migrants-summit-idUSKBN0P52HE20150625

[jaichind]

University of Macedonia poll has 42.5/43 for Yes/No.   81% said the best option for Greece’s future is staying in the euro area, vs 12% who said the best option is to return to national currency

[jaichind]

Ladbrokes odds has 71% chance of Yes winning.  At these odds about 65% of bets are on Yes and 35% of bets are on No.

[jaichind]

 Alco survey for Ethnos  has 44.8/43.4 Yes/No.  74% of respondents want Greece to stay in euro area