Greek Referendum on IMF/Troika deal

[ag]

In other news, some economist opine as to how they would vote, with some leading names (on the left mostly), saying they would vote no, with others saying yes. So I guess one cannot easily relegate the "no" voters to the economically illiterate luddite nutter category, or even mere Machiavellian game theorists (the economics minister has been characterized as a game theorist, I guess reading too many political science books on the topic or something). Life is complicated. But in the end, the subsidies cannot go on forever, and Greeks are going to have to work harder and longer for less money, or emigrate, it seems to me. And the fissures of economic union sort of, without political union, are laid bare. Can this complex hybrid structure really work for Europe?

Yes/no, at this point, is, to a large extent, an argument about bargaining. What is it, that is going to result in a less bad deal at the negotiation table? And that requires not a model of an economy so much, as a model of Angela Merkel.

Note, also, that the three big guys saying "no" will not have to live through it. They, really, argue that it is better to accelerate the horrible end rather than live through the horror without an end. This is a statement about preferences - and, in this case, it is cheap talk. Notably, they also mention things like "honor" and sovereignty: things that matter for some people, but which I, personally, care a lot less about. As far as I am concerned, if I were Greek, I would be very angry with people who find this an opportune moment to care about this stuff. Preferences, again.
 
The other issue is, really, an issue of politics. Really, the important issue is, what comes to power in Greece as a result. In case of "yes", SYRYZA government falls, new elections are going to be held. Will it be ND reincarnated - or the neonazicommies - or the army? Likewise, in case of a "no", followed by the rapid drachma, etc., it is very hard to figure out what is going to be the government in two years. Will SYRYZA be able to hold on long enough for the improvement to start - and improvement that would safe them? Will the democratic institutions survive the short-term shock? Really, you need to be a specialist on Greek politics to be able to judge.

Anyway, it seems that, among the economists, at least, being Greek is correlated with being in favor of "yes". Which further confirms to me that this is not so much about economics, as about either having to live through realities on the ground - or about some local knowledge.

[ag]

The "straw man" you have used is a fictional person, or group of persons, who think that "theres [sic] an unlimited cache of money waiting for somebody if they just declare "Austerity = Over." Unfortunately no one actually expressed this belief.

I'm afraid that terrible poster is not the only hot head in this thread. Apparently, ag thinks that I'm complaining because manna ceased to flow toward my country and I want that people feel sorry about me, as well accuses me of being ungrateful. Well, no. I don't remember having put in writing such a thing. I truly appreciate the advantages of joining the "club" back in the 80s. I think governments in my country allocated badly the funds with their excessive enthusiasm for infrastructures, but that's another question. But now I feel really sorry for the people who is actually suffering the consequences of misguided policies, in my country and elsewhere in Europe, and not really for myself. I can see the results every day around me. As well, I deplore the current drive of the Continent and fear the place where it's heading towards. I don't blame such drive only, I'm very critic of past and present governments in my country. It's quite deplorable that certain posters interpretate that I'm begging for alms or something, only because of some geographical accident. And the Greeks... they are really much worse than us. However, and despite their pains have been aggravated by certain policies and institutions, we are not entitled to talk in their favour... because some people is going to say... a strawman. Some people should cool down.     

I seem to have touched a nerve. Actually, not only your nerve - got some congratulating private messages from our Northern European friends here 

[Velasco]

I seem to have touched a nerve. Actually, not only your nerve - got some congratulating private messages from our Northern European friends here 

What nerve? National pride perhaps?  See, certain posters from that geographical origin -who apparently have congratulated you- have used the same argumentation before. It seems to be easier than discussing subjects seriously. In any case, I've been always against to raise discussion as a war between the north and the south. It's way too jingoistic to my taste, aside a grossly false simplification. If you care to read some of the last articles by Krugman, you will notice that Europe is facing more economic disasters: what he calls an "arc of decline" affecting countries in northern Europe. If people fails to relate problems with the flaws of the Eurozone and the European construction -and addressing them would be touching a real nerve- that's not my fault. I know you feel much more comfortable insulting a random Greek minister. No, I don't like the argumentative style, but I don't feel particularly affected by it . It's sad, however, that you put yourself at the low level of a teenage poster. Actually, the quality of this forum in general is decreasing alarmingly.   

[ag]

I seem to have touched a nerve. Actually, not only your nerve - got some congratulating private messages from our Northern European friends here 

What nerve? National pride perhaps?  

Even if it is just that, it is, most definitely, worth it. Hate national pride.

I have read Krugman.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

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http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/04/world/europe/alexis-tsipras-greece-debt-crisis-referendum.html

Will "the oligarchs" crush SYRIZA?

One of SYRIZA's election pledges was the end of favorable state contracts to certain media companies. This pledge was a key part of SYRIZA's platform because commercial licenses have been granted in a clientelistic manner; both PASOK and ND offered licenses to allies and friends, a commercial television has never been sold.

This goes to show that for all of the EU's bluster, SYRIZA is ultimately the party that stands the best shot at "modernizing" or "rationalizing" Greece. They were the only party that pledged to take aims to reduce tax evasion and reduce corruption. Nevertheless, the Troika has attempted to boot them from power because SYRIZA dared to take a stand at the mythology of "contractionary fiscal expansion", which is not really concerned with corruption or the lack of optimal markets in key sectors of the Greek economy.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Increasingly suspecting that going into bed with ANEL was an error.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Increasingly suspecting that going into bed with ANEL was an error.

How so? Do you think that the Eurogroup would have reacted more favorably to a Potami-SYRIZA coalition?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Things are so crazy right now that, I don't know, the fact that Allende appointed Pinochet seems relevant.

But on your query, yes, of course they would have done (ANEL are also 'anti-austerity' and are the hardliners on military spending, geographical VAT differentials and so on). Not sure whether it would have mattered much though.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Yes, the fact that the Greek military have been kept feathered throughout this whole crisis has been extremely confusing. I mean, I basically understand the rationale for VAT rates being lower on islands - everything is naturally more expensive because of the need to import + island tourism is pretty much the only thing going for the country. But over 2% of GDP on military is very much a nationalistic luxury.

I wonder if Syriza will split following this referenda?

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Things are so crazy right now that, I don't know, the fact that Allende appointed Pinochet seems relevant.

But on your query, yes, of course they would have done (ANEL are also 'anti-austerity' and are the hardliners on military spending, geographical VAT differentials and so on). Not sure whether it would have mattered much though.

I think you're right. This is pretty spooky behavior...

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http://www.kelownadailycourier.ca/business_news/national_business/article_9c650a97-d150-575c-ac29-23f77de1a6b4.html

[BaconBacon96]

What in the heck...

[Ebsy]

Press releases from groups of military officials are never a good sign.

[Beezer]

The most ridiculous argument used by  the "no" side is the one about national dignity. Greece will continue to be dependent on other countries as long as they remain an uncompetitive backwater. Where's the Greek Beko? Where are the Greek car factories that can be found across the Aegean? Instead of regular citizens going on about how the troika has destroyed their national dignity they ought to take a step back and think how they can turn their country from the laughing stock of Europe into a competitive 21st century economy where the main economic debates don't revolve around pensions (has Tsipras ever mentioned the private sector in any of his speeches?).

[The Last Northerner]

Increasingly suspecting that going into bed with ANEL was an error.

How so? Do you think that the Eurogroup would have reacted more favorably to a Potami-SYRIZA coalition?

I certainly think so. The main things that ANEL and SYRIZA have in common are anti-EU, anti-austerity populism and (more recently) nationalistic speeches. The only logical path for the coalition staying together was fighting the EU. If they SYRIZA had gone with the other non-KKE leftists and tried to do what it has been doing in the recent week, their pro-EU coalition partners would have tried to bring the government down.

I wonder if Syriza will split following this referenda?

If the YES side wins, there could be some losses but I don't seem them losing their status as the largest party on the left. They are in an odd spot where they have to reconcile as an anti-austerity party with some of their vaguely pro-EU voters.

[jaichind]

All the political betting sites still has around 67%-70% odds of Yes with about 2/3 of punters betting on Yes.

[jaichind]

Looks like even with capital controls and daily limits on withdraws the Greek banks can only hold out until Monday at the latest.  Then they will need more ELA.  I guess ECB will have a more clear picture since that will be after the referendum to make their decision. 

[Leftbehind]

The fact that SYRIZA are still clinging faithfully to the Euro is a bit suspect, but nonetheless fingers crossed for them & No tomorrow.

[jaichind]

How various Euorpean leaders and parties are choosing sides in this vote of course are correlated to the Euro-phile vs Euor-skeptic axis.  But I think an even better indicator on how each European politician/party comes down on this is even more correlated with the following question: "What is your relationship with Angela Merkel?"  A good example are Renzi is coming down on the side of Yes while Berlusconi is backing No.  Berlusconi's stormy relationship with Merkel is well known.

[Helsinkian]

Which side do you think would benefit more from a high turnout?

[Mr. Morden]

Polling stations now open:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/polling-stations-open-in-greece-for-crucial-bailout-referendum/2015/07/05/0b37a2b4-22cb-11e5-a135-935065bc30d0_story.html

Any idea as to when results will start coming out?

[Tender Branson]

Results should start to come in between 8-9pm Central European Time.

[jaichind]

Which side do you think would benefit more from a high turnout?

Since the youth is much more likely to vote No and high turnout tends to mean higher relative youth turnout, the higher the turnout the better it is for No in my view.

[jaichind]

From what I read, there is unlikely to be any exit polls.

[jaichind]

My sense is that Yes will be under-polled.  So with polls on Friday neck-to-neck, it should be a comfortable Yes victory.  It should be something like a 55/45 Yes win.

[jaichind]

With 4 hours left to go at 3PM turnout is at 35% which is high by historical standards when compared to other elections at 3PM.