Greek Referendum on IMF/Troika deal

[Tender Branson]

Metron has updated their poll to 52-48 No.

Which means the average of all 4 polls is now 51.75% No vs. 48.25% Yes.

[ag]

Very close results are especially bad here. It shows how split the country is. Of course, any course of action is going to be difficult here (at best), and likely disastrous. So, no matter what happens there will be lots of people saying: "I told you so".

[RogueBeaver]

First result in: 59-41 NO, 7% reporting.

[Antonio the Sixth]

First result in: 59-41 NO, 7% reporting.

More significantly, if the ministry's map is to be trusted, NO seems to be leading almost everywhere in the country.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

VERY high rate of invalid and blank votes going from early return - up to 6% in some places.

[Mehmentum]

With 10% in, no's now at 60%, and leading literally everywhere.

[Phony Moderate]

First result in: 59-41 NO, 7% reporting.

More significantly, if the ministry's map is to be trusted, NO seems to be leading almost everywhere in the country.

...and now leading everywhere with about 10% in.

[Phony Moderate]

No has just broken 60%.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Athens A seems to be closest of all the districts... at least from a simple glance. Probably unsurprising... follows EU referendum patterns.

[Mehmentum]

Well its safe to say that 'No' is going to win, the only question is by how much?

[Foucaulf]

These early results are more from Northern Greece and the islands. Are their voting patterns that surprising? Probably not, considering the last Eurogroup deal were screwing them over.

Athens hasn't really come in at all.

[Beezer]

Love how Varoufakis is already backtracking.

"In 24h we COULD have an agreement", I said. But our toxic media rushed to report that I predicted an agreement within 24h. Go figure!

https://twitter.com/yanisvaroufakis/status/617734804914708480

In his El Mundo interview he says: Sea cual sea el resultado del referéndum, el lunes habrá un acuerdo, estoy completa y absolutamente seguro.
http://www.elmundo.es/economia/2015/07/04/5596f1b3ca47412d048b459e.html

Completa y absolutamente seguro. My Spanish is a bit rusty but I'm pretty sure that doesn't mean could. And then people wonder why nobody trusts him or his joke of a government.

[Helsinkian]

VERY high rate of invalid and blank votes going from early return - up to 6% in some places.

KKE supporters?

[jaichind]

VERY high rate of invalid and blank votes going from early return - up to 6% in some places.

KKE supporters?

That was what I was thinking.

[jaichind]

Well its safe to say that 'No' is going to win, the only question is by how much?

Pretty much.  This is very surprising to me.  I guess this really turned into a vote against a national unity government which lets ND and PASOK back in. 

[Tetro Kornbluth]

My not great Spanish translates that as "Whatever the result of the referendum, there will be an agreement on Monday. I am completely and absolutely sure."

As for the spoiled ballot rate, it might be more the confusing nature of the ballot paper (you had to sign it with a cross) rather than KKE absentionists. I mean, the KKE is a pretty small party in the scheme of things.

[ag]

Well, at least this is clear. Euro has just become a smaller zone.

[ag]

Some things never die. In Lakonia "yes" is at over 49%

[The Other Castro]

Well, at least this is clear. Euro has just become a smaller zone.

Greece is now in the You're own Eur-own Zone.

[jaichind]

Well, at least this is clear. Euro has just become a smaller zone.

Not sure about that.  I still think there is a non-zero chance of a deal that has the contours of the deal they had last Friday with some small amount of debt writeoff (mostly by shifting back the maturity date) with a structure for more writeoffs as the primary surplus continues into the next few years.

[ag]

Well, at least this is clear. Euro has just become a smaller zone.

Not sure about that.  I still think there is a non-zero chance of a deal that has the contours of the deal they had last Friday with some small amount of debt writeoff (mostly by shifting back the maturity date) with a structure for more writeoffs as the primary surplus continues into the next few years.

May be. But the trust between the negotiators and the Greeks is very low, at this point.

[ag]

Some things never die. In Lakonia "yes" is at over 49%

And, in fact, in Sparta "yes" is at 50.14%!

[Beezer]

Well, at least this is clear. Euro has just become a smaller zone.

Not sure about that.  I still think there is a non-zero chance of a deal that has the contours of the deal they had last Friday with some small amount of debt writeoff (mostly by shifting back the maturity date) with a structure for more writeoffs as the primary surplus continues into the next few years.

That was before Varoufakis accused the Eurogroup of committing acts of terrorism.

[Paleobrazilian]

Those Greeks know how to count their votes quickly. 25% counted already.

[jaichind]

A lot of Greek companies are already resorting to issuing their own IOUs.  The likelihood of a deal will now really depends on some mini-deal for ECB to expand ELA to so prevent the financial system of Greece from falling apart.  This could build up the good will for a more comprehensive deal sometime later.  We will see how Tsipras and ECB reacts to this result monday.