Greek Referendum on IMF/Troika deal

[RogueBeaver]

Samaras resigns as ND leader.

[Simfan34]

Yes might pull through after the provisional ballots are counted.

Have you looked at the actual results? Or are you suggesting they are refusing to count the "yes" votes?

Perhaps.

[Dan the Roman]

The Greek banks owe ECB 89 billion EUR from ELA.  ECB can just punt on this while "talks" take place between EU and Greece. The next real deadline is July 20th when Greek government has to redeem 3.5 billion EUR  worth of bonds held by the ECB. A missed payment to the ECB may be the tipping point for the banking system. The eurogroup may present Tsipras with an ultimatum: immediately sign a preliminary agreement, in order to reopen the banks, or let the banking system fail.  Perhaps  Tsipras  can call a referendum on that ultimatum ?

Way too optimistic. The Greek banks cannot reopen without additional ELA funds, which means if the ECB does not raise the limit(and legally they should call in the the entire loan) the banks cannot repopen at all. In fact, they will not even be able to meet the 60 Euro quota after tomorrow. Repeat, it is against EU law for the ELA to raise that limit again.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Do you know what's the truth?
Greece refused a deal that was more acceptable of what the Italy and other countries suffered in 2011.
In Italy, people leave work at 67 years. In Greece, it's 57 years.
Tsipras, the left hero, refused cut the defense only because of ANEL, a right-wing party.

Honestly, I doesn't want that my country give money to a country that refused an acceptable deal. And I'm sure Chancellor Merkel agrees with me.

Italy was forced to loan Greece 32 billion or so Euros when Italy was also facing problems, right? I really don't understand the logic of this.

But to respond to your post, Greece is in far worse shape than Italy. That probably is why the terms were so favorable compared to Italy. Additionally, I don't know why another round of austerity would be any different in 2015 than from what happened in 2010 and 2012, when it only made the problem worse.

Honestly this whole Euro thing was a disaster, can we all finally admit this?

[RogueBeaver]

In phone conversation, Hollande & Merkel agree that result must be respected - AFP.

[Hash]

Slovenian newspaper:

That newspaper is the best. Hopefully they get a Pulitzer prize for this cover.

[jaichind]

But to respond to your post, Greece is in far worse shape than Italy. That probably is why the terms were so favorable compared to Italy.

Greece was in far worse shape than Italy only because of its projected revenues and spending.  In terms of net debt to GDP Greece and Italy were similar at the 2009-2010 period with Greece perhaps a bit higher.  What made the Greek situation far worse was the spending trajectory Greece was on relative to Italy.  Greece has not yet addressed this yet and it seems unlikely it will.  Being cut off from international funding in case it does not followed by the massive economic dislocation would "address" this problem, one way or another.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Imagine if every time the an American state ended up in economic trouble, all 50 governors had to get together and hash out a solution. This is a farce.

[Simfan34]

Slovenian newspaper:

Delicious. Absolutely delicious.

Imagine if every time the an American state ended up in economic trouble, all 50 governors had to get together and hash out a solution. This is a farce.

Europe is not a country, you see.

[ingemann]

In phone conversation, Hollande & Merkel agree that result must be respected - AFP.

It's interesting whether they agreed on what the referendrum meant and how it should be respected.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

But to respond to your post, Greece is in far worse shape than Italy. That probably is why the terms were so favorable compared to Italy.

Greece was in far worse shape than Italy only because of its projected revenues and spending.  In terms of net debt to GDP Greece and Italy were similar at the 2009-2010 period with Greece perhaps a bit higher.  What made the Greek situation far worse was the spending trajectory Greece was on relative to Italy.  Greece has not yet addressed this yet and it seems unlikely it will.  Being cut off from international funding in case it does not followed by the massive economic dislocation would "address" this problem, one way or another.

I meant more in macroeconomic terms than just budgetary, sorry for not being clear. Italy's economy is more dynamic and suffered less of a fall, compared to Greece's economy which was/is heavily reliant on tourism and shipping, which are hypersensitive to changes in the global economy. And on top of this, Greece has nearly twice the number of people out of work as Italy does.

Italy could and can still be salvaged; Greece was a lost cause from the beginning.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Imagine if every time the an American state ended up in economic trouble, all 50 governors had to get together and hash out a solution. This is a farce.

Europe is not a country, you see.

Perhaps not, but if europeans are so desperate to maintain "national sovereignty" or whatver, they should have thought about that before making a currency Union/quasi-state.

[jaichind]

The Greek banks owe ECB 89 billion EUR from ELA.  ECB can just punt on this while "talks" take place between EU and Greece. The next real deadline is July 20th when Greek government has to redeem 3.5 billion EUR  worth of bonds held by the ECB. A missed payment to the ECB may be the tipping point for the banking system. The eurogroup may present Tsipras with an ultimatum: immediately sign a preliminary agreement, in order to reopen the banks, or let the banking system fail.  Perhaps  Tsipras  can call a referendum on that ultimatum ?

Way too optimistic. The Greek banks cannot reopen without additional ELA funds, which means if the ECB does not raise the limit(and legally they should call in the the entire loan) the banks cannot repopen at all. In fact, they will not even be able to meet the 60 Euro quota after tomorrow. Repeat, it is against EU law for the ELA to raise that limit again.

You are right of course.  I was making the optimistic (from the Greek point of view) that somehow ELA will continue at current levels for a while and the status quo can be maintained until July 20th when it will for sure be unsustainable.  Of course in the meantime ECB can invoke the ‘proportionality principle’ and reduce ELA even before July 20th.  The Greek financial system, which is already starting to show signs of being reduced to barter economy with private IOUs starting to float around might just fall apart in the meantime.  

So unless somehow the EU just folds which seems unlikely or Tsipras accepts a deal with terms which his government labeled as terrorist, which actually seems quite possible as he has secured his left flank, there will be another de facto ultimatum coming July 20th at the latest, most likely earlier.

[Ebsy]

We don't know that Greece was a lost cause from the beginning. We just know that Merkel's solution to the crisis was not only inadequate, but made things immensely worse in the long run for everyone.

[RogueBeaver]

Tsipras: wants to resume negotiations, find workable solution. Not a mandate against Europe but for a sustainable solution.

[jaichind]

My sense is that Yes will be under-polled.  So with polls on Friday neck-to-neck, it should be a comfortable Yes victory.  It should be something like a 55/45 Yes win.

Looks like I was very very very wrong.  Oh well.  Can't win them all.

[jaichind]

Tsipras says that he will negotiate debt restructuring.  Hopefully he understands that conditions for debt restructuring are the same conditions he just ran against.

[Oakvale]

A pretty dark day for Greece. I can't imagine most No voters, mislead by a government of student union politicians, have any idea of what's going to happen now. Probably not a bad day for Europe though - we can excise a tumour.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Jaichind I hope you haven't banked your investment portfolio on a YES vote

[jaichind]

Jaichind I hope you haven't banked your investment portfolio on a YES vote

I actually kind of did   But the impact is not that bad.   I got a large unexpected windfall which I cashed out of a few weeks ago and was overweight in cash.  So I was looking to invest in something when the referendum crisis came.  I plowed a good chunk of cash not necessary into a Yes vote but into a positive resolution of the crisis.  This investment paid off by Friday so I cashed in some of those gains.  The losses I will sustain in the coming weeks from the remaining part of this bet will wipe out the gains I locked in friday and some more.  So while I made several cleaver moves last week buying big time Monday and selling big time Friday, this vote result pretty much wiped out gains.  Oh well.  Not a big deal.  I will be net negative from last friday but not in a decisive way.  I guess you have take risk to make gains.  This one was a small net negative.  Hopefully others will be positive.

[Zanas]

We positively don't care about your investments, GTFO.

[jaichind]

If that is how next week plays out then we will have a chance to test out Professor Donald Kagan's theory on war.  I attend several lectures by Donald Kagan when I was in college and he was one of my favorite professors in college.  Donald Kagan main theory is "Unlike what Marxist historians claim, nations fight not for material interests but they fight for honor."  His theory is mostly developed from his study, ironically, of the relationships of Greek city states in the Classical period.  

If the Greek people votes on honor they will vote no.  If they vote on, to be fair, short term material interests, then they will vote yes.  Donald Kagan theory says they will vote no to preserve their honor.  We will see if Donald Kagan was right.

Curses.  I should have listen to Professor Kagan and saved some money on my investments. 

[jaichind]

We positively don't care about your investments, GTFO.

I was asked a question and responded to it.  Sorry if that offended you in any way.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

How dare the Greeks not cower for the bankers, whose austerity they ordered caused the economy to shrink by 25%? How dare they!

Imagine if every time the an American state ended up in economic trouble, all 50 governors had to get together and hash out a solution. This is a farce.

Or Puerto Rico.

[jaichind]

There might be some translation problems but it seems that Tsipras said "Greek debt relief now on the table in creditor talks."  How does he figure that?  Debt relief is not something he gets to put in the table.  Only the EU gets to do that.  He can use the referendum results to ask the EU to put it on the table.   Remind me next time my Federal tax bill come due for me to hold a household referendum where my family will vote 3-0 (I will vote for my 4 year old child via proxy) not to pay and I will tell the IRS that tax forgiveness is now on the table.