Greek Referendum on IMF/Troika deal
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  Greek Referendum on IMF/Troika deal
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Author Topic: Greek Referendum on IMF/Troika deal  (Read 73247 times)
jaichind
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« Reply #450 on: July 06, 2015, 04:43:01 AM »

The ECB cannot keep the ELA funding in place "as is" because they would require massive haircuts on
Greek sovereign bond (now more likely to default) which would essentially have the same result as pulling it altogether. The only option for the ECB to proceed with ELA is for the other Eurozone members to guarantee the Greek sovereign bonds. If they do, it is a clear signal that Europe wants to go back to the negotiation table.
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jaichind
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« Reply #451 on: July 06, 2015, 05:47:07 AM »

Tsipras has provided the Troika with head of Varoufakis as proof of his desire for a new deal

Another reason why Varoufakis had to go is someone has to take ownership of the promise he made last week that within "one hour of an No vote fresh agreement on aid will be done and the banks reopen.  Clearly this was never going to happen, even in a Yes vote, and now it is clear this will not take place, someone had to take the fall for this failed promise. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #452 on: July 06, 2015, 05:57:08 AM »

It seems the German position is the hard-line that there is no basis for talks and Greece must make present a plan to ask for aid.  France wants to reopen talks and is willing to consider debt haircuts.  Same is true for Spain who also indicated that it wants to keep Greece in the Euro.  So this No vote, while it gets  Tsipras nowhere closer to a deal he wants, does have the affect of splitting the Eurozone leaders whereas they were united against him last week.  Of course in the greater scheme of things, the German position will be the most important one.
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jaichind
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« Reply #453 on: July 06, 2015, 06:00:34 AM »

General Manager of Media Relations at the Ministry of Finance don't know if the banks will be open tomorrow or not at the moment.  They confirmed that the Ministry of Finance will announce the final decision at around 9-10pm Greece time.  I suspect we will go through this water torture next few days on a daily basis where the Tsipras regime will pretend that the banks will open soon every day only to say  toward the end of the day that they will not.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #454 on: July 06, 2015, 07:34:51 AM »

Tsipras spoke to Merkel, they agreed he will present proposals at tomorrow's summit - Reuters. Also said the Greek proposals will be based on Juncker's last-minute offer.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #455 on: July 06, 2015, 07:49:14 AM »

Tsipras spoke to Merkel, they agreed he will present proposals at tomorrow's summit - Reuters. Also said the Greek proposals will be based on Juncker's last-minute offer.

The only fundamental disagreement has always been about debt relief. If this issue is finally included in the negotiations, there is no reason an agreement can't be found.
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Paleobrazilian
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« Reply #456 on: July 06, 2015, 07:58:56 AM »

Easier said than done when Germany is pretty much ignoring the outcome of the referendum and demanding pretty much the same things they were before and rejecting any sort of debt relief.

The only way Greece will get relief right now is the Grexit way.
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #457 on: July 06, 2015, 08:01:10 AM »

Varoufakis might have been annoying but that is just antics.

It's very hard to do a deal with someone who accuses you of terrorism. Even if you actually are a terrorist.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #458 on: July 06, 2015, 08:01:18 AM »

Easier said than done when Germany is pretty much ignoring the outcome of the referendum and demanding pretty much the same things they were before and rejecting any sort of debt relief.

The only way Greece will get relief right now is the Grexit way.

Then they should make it clear they're not actually interested in negotiating. Let's stop pretending you just want to sit and talk when in fact you have never accepted a single proposal from Greece.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #459 on: July 06, 2015, 08:06:01 AM »

Tsipras spoke to Putin. They discussed bilateral cooperation, Putin expressed sympathy for the Greek people.

Varoufakis was fired because Tsipras has for months wanted a finance minister who could work better with Eurogroup.
Waited for the Telegraph interview as a final straw due to Varoufakis' popularity.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #460 on: July 06, 2015, 08:09:59 AM »

Gabriel: Humanitarian aid needed, Greece threatened with insolvency, 3rd bailout would be EFSF and "damn complicated."
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Paleobrazilian
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« Reply #461 on: July 06, 2015, 08:13:17 AM »

Easier said than done when Germany is pretty much ignoring the outcome of the referendum and demanding pretty much the same things they were before and rejecting any sort of debt relief.

The only way Greece will get relief right now is the Grexit way.

Then they should make it clear they're not actually interested in negotiating. Let's stop pretending you just want to sit and talk when in fact you have never accepted a single proposal from Greece.

The thing is, most Greeks probably still prefer keeping the Euro, so Tsipras has no alternative but negotiate.

Then again, perhaps yesterday's outcome shows that most in Greece now don't care much about the Euro.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #462 on: July 06, 2015, 08:20:35 AM »

Gabriel - no haircut. Looks like Tsakalatos will be the new finance minister.
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #463 on: July 06, 2015, 08:38:00 AM »

Tsipras spoke to Putin. They discussed bilateral cooperation, Putin expressed sympathy for the Greek people.
If grexit does happen, then Russia will have the perfect opportunity to capitalize on it. 

No one in the west wants Greece to fall under Russia's influence, and this meeting might partially be a ploy by Tsipras to show the immediate danger of this happening if Greece is ejected from the Euro.
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Bacon King
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« Reply #464 on: July 06, 2015, 08:49:19 AM »

Fun fact for people arguing Greece should cut it's military spending because 2% of GDP is too high: that 2% is actually the minimum acceptable spending level per the terms of their NATO membership treaty
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Simfan34
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« Reply #465 on: July 06, 2015, 08:49:41 AM »
« Edited: July 06, 2015, 08:51:19 AM by Governor Simfan34 »

Gabriel - no haircut. Looks like Tsakalatos will be the new finance minister.

But he wears a tie!

Fun fact for people arguing Greece should cut it's military spending because 2% of GDP is too high: that 2% is actually the minimum acceptable spending level per the terms of their NATO membership treaty

This is absolutely correct. If Greece is spending 2% there is not much more they can cut.
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Torie
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« Reply #466 on: July 06, 2015, 09:00:14 AM »

Is there any merit to the suggestion that the Greek voters understood that the vote was next to meaningless as to what its creditors/Germany/Eurozone power brokers end up doing, and the vote was more about, given the inevitable trajectory, it was about who they want the government to be going forward as their standard of living substantially declines? I know that by the end of this, I was quite confused about what a no versus yes vote really meant. The mistakes made by the current government cannot be undone. It's spilt milk.
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ag
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« Reply #467 on: July 06, 2015, 09:17:52 AM »

Tsipras spoke to Putin. They discussed bilateral cooperation, Putin expressed sympathy for the Greek people.
If grexit does happen, then Russia will have the perfect opportunity to capitalize on it. 

No one in the west wants Greece to fall under Russia's influence, and this meeting might partially be a ploy by Tsipras to show the immediate danger of this happening if Greece is ejected from the Euro.

Why not? It would have an extra benefit of hastening the Russian collapse.
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Mehmentum
Icefire9
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« Reply #468 on: July 06, 2015, 09:20:07 AM »

Tsipras spoke to Putin. They discussed bilateral cooperation, Putin expressed sympathy for the Greek people.
If grexit does happen, then Russia will have the perfect opportunity to capitalize on it. 

No one in the west wants Greece to fall under Russia's influence, and this meeting might partially be a ploy by Tsipras to show the immediate danger of this happening if Greece is ejected from the Euro.

Why not? It would have an extra benefit of hastening the Russian collapse.

?
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ag
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« Reply #469 on: July 06, 2015, 09:32:26 AM »

Tsipras spoke to Putin. They discussed bilateral cooperation, Putin expressed sympathy for the Greek people.
If grexit does happen, then Russia will have the perfect opportunity to capitalize on it. 

No one in the west wants Greece to fall under Russia's influence, and this meeting might partially be a ploy by Tsipras to show the immediate danger of this happening if Greece is ejected from the Euro.

Why not? It would have an extra benefit of hastening the Russian collapse.

?

It will severely deplete Russian reserves.
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Mehmentum
Icefire9
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« Reply #470 on: July 06, 2015, 09:43:40 AM »

Tsipras spoke to Putin. They discussed bilateral cooperation, Putin expressed sympathy for the Greek people.
If grexit does happen, then Russia will have the perfect opportunity to capitalize on it. 

No one in the west wants Greece to fall under Russia's influence, and this meeting might partially be a ploy by Tsipras to show the immediate danger of this happening if Greece is ejected from the Euro.

Why not? It would have an extra benefit of hastening the Russian collapse.

?

It will severely deplete Russian reserves.
Russia doesn't need to bail Greece out.  The collapse of the Greek economy (well, what's left of it) and ejection from the EU would be the perfect environment for Russia to gain influence in. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #471 on: July 06, 2015, 10:18:16 AM »

Russia doesn't need to bail Greece out.  The collapse of the Greek economy (well, what's left of it) and ejection from the EU would be the perfect environment for Russia to gain influence in. 

Yes, Russia can always come in after a disorderly Greek exit where Greece defaults and is in chaos economically for an alliance with Greece where Greece might even exit NATO.  I am sure Russia would love to be part of such an arrangement.  But what would be for Greece to do it.  It would be mostly out of revenge.  Since Russia is not in a position to help Greece out of the big blowup and only comes in after the big economic blowup, what use is the Russian alliance to Greece.  If the separation of Greece from the Eurozone is especially bitter then for sure the motivation of revenge will have more consequence to Greece as well as possible Orthodox solidarity.  But other than that this new arrangement does not give Greece greater military and economic security than staying in EU/NATO.
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Hnv1
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« Reply #472 on: July 06, 2015, 10:48:46 AM »

Tsipras spoke to Putin. They discussed bilateral cooperation, Putin expressed sympathy for the Greek people.
If grexit does happen, then Russia will have the perfect opportunity to capitalize on it. 

No one in the west wants Greece to fall under Russia's influence, and this meeting might partially be a ploy by Tsipras to show the immediate danger of this happening if Greece is ejected from the Euro.

Why not? It would have an extra benefit of hastening the Russian collapse.

?

It will severely deplete Russian reserves.
Russia doesn't need to bail Greece out.  The collapse of the Greek economy (well, what's left of it) and ejection from the EU would be the perfect environment for Russia to gain influence in. 
Russia can't bail Greece out, it doesn't have the resources and their economy is pretty ed as well. I saw a graph a while back projecting that the size of the Greek economy in 10 years time with Grexit\staying will not be all that different. I think it's best for everybody at this point if Grexit happens already instead of this perpetual instability, it will mean chaos on the long run but probably better on the long run.
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jaichind
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« Reply #473 on: July 06, 2015, 11:06:43 AM »

Greek govt will extend bank holiday, capital controls through Wednesday, a Finance Ministry spokesman says by phone after a meeting between Greek bank officials, alternate Finance Minister Dimitris Mardas.
ATM withdrawals limit of EU60/day to remain unchanged.
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jaichind
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« Reply #474 on: July 06, 2015, 11:14:24 AM »

Dombrovskis, the Latvian-born EU vice president responsible for the EUR, indicated that the vote had “complicated” the work of the creditors and had left the Greek government in a weaker, not stronger, negotiating position.  He also indicated that a write-down of Greece’s debt mountain is now “off the table."
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