Greek Referendum on IMF/Troika deal

[jaichind]

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble says at event in Frankfurt that “I offered my friend Jack Lew these days that we could take Puerto Rico into the euro zone if the U.S. were willing to take Greece into the dollar union. He thought that was a joke.”

[ag]

Then, either Greece introduces the drachma voluntarily,  or it completely paralizes its own economy for an indefinite period. It is a choice: drachma, or your grandma starves.

Are you aware this sounds like it's a public policy prescription from Marlon Brando's character in the Godfather?

Honestly I'd be much more willing to agree with the non-Greek side in this debate if their rhetoric wasn't so consistently toxic

I am aware  Except that this time this  is not a prescription, but a prediction. It is the insescapable consequence of trying to hold on to the euro without having the euro. It is not part of any rhetoric. I have only verbalized it for your benefit, so that you understand why it is not the matter of Greeks going to some court to keep the euro.

[ag]

This guy reads the riot act to Tsipras, starring him in the eye. Tsipras seemed rather entertained by it all. We need a Constitutional amendment right now to make Verhofstadt eligible to be POTUS. We need him far more than Belgium does.

Stark!

America isn't going to elect a president who looks like Harry Potter.

Well, Harry must be eligible on age, by now

[Torie]

It does seem now as if Tsipras is going to cry uncle and swallow the hard medicine, and that as a fig leaf for him in exchange, the Euros will say something reassuring about debt restructuring now, rather than sometime later over the horizon, maybe. That assumes however, that Tsipras still has control over the situation in Greece, and that the Greek parliament, etc., does not rebel. Just my guess.

[Antonio the Sixth]

And Antonio, what about their masterful application of GAME THEORY?

Where does this meme come from anyway?

[jaichind]

Looks like ND will provide the votes to pass a deal even if the extreme left in Syriza revolts over a deal.  

[jaichind]

Greek Defence Minister Panos Kammenos says the Greek government's economic reform proposals will be submitted "in the next few hours.".

Wait, when Tsipras showed up Tuesday and had nothing when he promised the would come with a plan, he said that a detailed plan will be handed in Wed.  Now they are working non-stop to try to beat a Thursday midnight deadline.  So it seems they just had nothing and now are trying to come up with something from scratch.  All that talk about having a detailed plan was just smoke-and-mirrors.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

And Antonio, what about their masterful application of GAME THEORY?

Where does this meme come from anyway?

Varoufakis is hugely into Game Theory.

[ag]

And Antonio, what about their masterful application of GAME THEORY?

Where does this meme come from anyway?

Varoufakis is hugely into Game Theory.

There are doubts whether the feeling is reciprocated.

[jaichind]

Looks like the Greek plan got submitted.  It calls for 50 bill EUR in bailouts an  offers 12-13 billion EUR in austerity measures  including raising taxes on cafes, bars and restaurants. The amount is significantly higher than the package of cuts that Greek voters rejected in in the referendum.    It seems that Merkel might be open to extending the maturity or lowering interest rates as a way to doing debt reduction.
It also looks like Lafazanis faction of Syrzia is opposed to this but his defection will be easily made up by ND and PASOK voting for the deal.

[jaichind]

The Greek proposal seems to target previously agreed primary on surplus targets of 1%, 2%, 3%, and 3.5% per cent of gross domestic product in 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2018.  I am skeptical that the 2015 and 2016 targets can be meet.  Whereas in Jan 2015 the projections for GDP growth in 2015 and 2016 would be 2% and 2.5%.  Now it looks like it will be -2% and 1% respectively.   Not sure the measured proposed can get to this sort of primary surplus. 

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

This guy reads the riot act to Tsipras, starring him in the eye. Tsipras seemed rather entertained by it all. We need a Constitutional amendment right now to make Verhofstadt eligible to be POTUS. We need him far more than Belgium does.

Stark!

America isn't going to elect a president who looks like Harry Potter.

Well, Harry must be eligible on age, by now

Harry Potter was born on July 31, 1980. So in a few weeks, yes.

The amount is significantly higher than the package of cuts that Greek voters rejected in in the referendum.

Oh for Christ's sake.

[Simfan34]

And Antonio, what about their masterful application of GAME THEORY?

Where does this meme come from anyway?

Varoufakis' field of expertise. I know Bacon King has mentioned it a lot.

[Oakvale]

This guy reads the riot act to Tsipras, starring him in the eye. Tsipras seemed rather entertained by it all. We need a Constitutional amendment right now to make Verhofstadt eligible to be POTUS. We need him far more than Belgium does.

I hadn't seen this, thanks! That's terrific.

[H. Ross Peron]

I assumed that the German Empire and its paraphernalia would be verboten in the mindset of Germans.

Kaiserreich nostalgia seems to be at least tolerated amongt right-wingers like DDR nostalgia is in the far left. Although at least some symbols of the German Empire (such as the Black-Red-White flag) are used by Nazis to circumvent bans on swastikas.

[Hifly]

I assumed that the German Empire and its paraphernalia would be verboten in the mindset of Germans.

Kaiserreich nostalgia seems to be at least tolerated amongt right-wingers like DDR nostalgia is in the far left. Although at least some symbols of the German Empire (such as the Black-Red-White flag) are used by Nazis to circumvent bans on swastikas.

You should visit my Grandmother's house
But honestly I don't see any stigma attached to artefacts from that era. Many of our most important streets and monuments are dedicated to key monarchists, with only minimal controversy.

[Helsinkian]

So the Greeks reject an austerity plan of circa 9 billion euros in a referendum, and now a few days after the referendum they may have to swallow an austerity plan of 13 billion euros? Are the Syriza people going to admit that the referendum was a mistake?

[jaichind]

Just like there might be a rebellion in Syriza over this deal, there might be a rebellion in CDU/CSU in Germany over this deal as well, especially over the debt reductions.

[jaichind]

A diff of the new Greek proposal and one creditors proposal that was voted down in the referendum:

Primary fiscal surplus: No difference whatsoever: The targets remain 1%of GDP in 2015, 2% in 2016, 3% in 2017 and 3.5% thereafter.

Value-added tax reform: The new government proposal insists on a 13% VAT on hotels, while the creditors wanted to raise it to 23%. (The new document omits to mention a specific revenue-increase target for 2015, which the creditors wanted to set at 1% of GDP.)

Pension reform: The exact language of the creditors' proposal has been cut and pasted into the new document.

Public financial management: The government proposal calls for the same measures as the creditors' proposal did -- including a new criminal law on tax evasion, tighter health-care spending controls, welfare system reform to generate annual savings of 0.5% of GDP, an increase in corporate tax from 26% to 28%, a new tax on TV advertising, more luxury and property taxes, and the elimination of fuel subsidies for farmers. The only difference is that the government wants a smaller cut in defense spending -- 100 million euros this year rather than 400 million, as the creditors suggested.

Labor market: No difference. The Greek government undertakes to bring its labor market arrangements into line with European Union best practice.

Product markets: No difference. The same measures to cut red tape, remove restrictions and boost competitiveness are outlined in the same language.

Privatization: The government doesn't commit to any specific revenue targets like those specified in the creditors' proposal. It merely promises to complete the sell-off processes begun by its predecessors, something the creditors also called for.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

So we are apparently more pro-Troika in Sweden than they are in Germany. Who would have guessed.

[Simfan34]

What's up with the British and French?

[ObserverIE]

What's up with the British and French?

A greater sense of emotional detachment, possibly. Or at least a more even balance between derogatory prejudices about Greeks and derogatory prejudices about Germans.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Brits of course are not in the Euro, and so can freely look smugly at the whole lot with a sense of ironic disdain towards Eurocracy.

I'd like to see figures from the other so-called PIIGS (and Cyprus).

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Oh and nobody mentioned this earlier, but somebody posted on the IRC, the Google insights for which countries took most interest in the referendum (including Greece).

Number one was Liechtenstein (followed by Monaco, Luxembourg etc.)

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

I'd like to see figures from the other so-called PIIGS (and Cyprus).

Yeah me too. Unfortunately these were the only numbers I could find. :/