Greek Referendum on IMF/Troika deal

[Beezer]

What a cluster. But maybe this will finally put an end to the epic mistake that was and is Greece's euro membership.

[Beezer]

First poll?

Greece [KappaResearch/@tovimagr poll]:
· 47.2% vote Yes (for agreement)
· 33% No
· 18.4% undecided
https://twitter.com/YanniKouts/status/614896548791590913

[Beezer]

I don't really like Tsipras but he may well end up winning this battle.

Winning what battle? Any deal will involve more austerity. Greece's economy is probably now in as crappy a state as it was during the height of the crisis. People or companies that might have thought about investing in the place will continue to give it a wide berth. You now have capital controls, something that you did not have even during the darkest days in 2011.

[Beezer]

Greece Asks for 2-Year Bailout Program From ESM: PM’s Office

Looks like there is another attempt at a deal

What a colossal fück up. They're a couple of hours from defaulting on an IMF loan and then they come up with a new proposal. To be honest I think this is just a ploy by Tsipras to present himself to the electorate as the guy that tried to negotiate to the very last minute.

[Beezer]

I have to say that all of this is highly entertaining. It's quite clear that the eurozone will not offer a better deal, regardless of the referendum's outcome. So either Tsipras is deluding himself and his voters or he is actively pushing for a Grexit with his combattive rhetoric.

BTW, no campaign poster on the Greek finance ministry:

[Beezer]

http://www.euro2day.gr/news/economy/article/1345574/prohgeitai-to-nai-se-dhmoskophsh-gpo.html

[Beezer]

I'm all for a Juncker themed bar where you can get wasted just like the prez.

[Beezer]

The most ridiculous argument used by  the "no" side is the one about national dignity. Greece will continue to be dependent on other countries as long as they remain an uncompetitive backwater. Where's the Greek Beko? Where are the Greek car factories that can be found across the Aegean? Instead of regular citizens going on about how the troika has destroyed their national dignity they ought to take a step back and think how they can turn their country from the laughing stock of Europe into a competitive 21st century economy where the main economic debates don't revolve around pensions (has Tsipras ever mentioned the private sector in any of his speeches?).

[Beezer]

`NO' SEEN GETTING 51.5% VS 48.5% FOR YES IN GPO REFERENDUM POLL

GREEK REFERENDUM OPINION POLL BY METRON ANALYSIS SHOWS 'YES' VOTE 46 PCT, 'NO' VOTE 49 PCT

[Beezer]

Love how Varoufakis is already backtracking.

"In 24h we COULD have an agreement", I said. But our toxic media rushed to report that I predicted an agreement within 24h. Go figure!

https://twitter.com/yanisvaroufakis/status/617734804914708480

In his El Mundo interview he says: Sea cual sea el resultado del referéndum, el lunes habrá un acuerdo, estoy completa y absolutamente seguro.
http://www.elmundo.es/economia/2015/07/04/5596f1b3ca47412d048b459e.html

Completa y absolutamente seguro. My Spanish is a bit rusty but I'm pretty sure that doesn't mean could. And then people wonder why nobody trusts him or his joke of a government.

[Beezer]

Well, at least this is clear. Euro has just become a smaller zone.

Not sure about that.  I still think there is a non-zero chance of a deal that has the contours of the deal they had last Friday with some small amount of debt writeoff (mostly by shifting back the maturity date) with a structure for more writeoffs as the primary surplus continues into the next few years.

That was before Varoufakis accused the Eurogroup of committing acts of terrorism.

[Beezer]

So does this strengthen or weaken Tsipras' position? I'd say it's the latter since the creditors now realize that their demands will never be met by a Greek government so it's sensible to just cut their losses and let Greece default and exit.

[Beezer]

German SPD vice-Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel indicates Tsipras has “torn down the last bridges across which Europe and Greece could have moved toward a compromise” ...“By rejecting the rules of the game of the euro area, as expressed in the majority ‘No’ vote

The Germans are very angry. 

if there were any doubt left that the Eurozone is an antidemocratic project..

Because Gabriel has an eye on the voters that elect him?

[Beezer]

German SPD vice-Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel indicates Tsipras has “torn down the last bridges across which Europe and Greece could have moved toward a compromise” ...“By rejecting the rules of the game of the euro area, as expressed in the majority ‘No’ vote

The Germans are very angry. 

if there were any doubt left that the Eurozone is an antidemocratic project..

Because Gabriel has an eye on the voters that elect him?

because he alleges "Tsipras has burned the last bridges" by letting his general population directly vote on a major policy event.

if your point is this fellow is just bullsh**tting for his own purposes, that's fine.

Calling a referendum at the last minute that was nothing more than a negotiating ploy. If Tsipras cared about democracy, he would have called something weeks ago which would have given the Greek people the opportunity to have a proper debate about their future within or without the eurozone.

[Beezer]

What he could have done is to tell the EU, say a month ago, "You know what we Greeks want, give me the best final deal you got in 5 days.  I will then start a referendum process where we will explain the deal in practical terms as well as the pros and cons of such a deal.  We will also explain that if the Greeks do not accept the deal which is the best one you can come up with, then we have no choice but to default on the debt and exit the EUR."  ...

Yup...and instead we got a 1 week populist circle jerk, complete with appeals to the most base nationalist emotions and accusations of terrorism against European institutions. Not exactly a great example of democracy at work imo.

[Beezer]

No proposal, eh? Well at least this time around they didn't send out the wrong one.

[Beezer]

Thankfully I'm not in debt but if I was I wish I received the kind of terms (super low interest payments, maturities extended into the 2030s, haircut) Greece has gotten.