Greek Referendum on IMF/Troika deal

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Well, I guess this is going to be it.

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What is SYRIZA's stance on the referendum?
This is a good call from them politik-wise, since SYRIZA won't get blamed as much. Sadly this won't help the Greeks in any way except for making them feel better about their likely decision to pull out of the Euro.

Όχι, I believe. No.

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S*** is about to go down.

You mean up

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That was the right decision from Tsipras. Whatever comes out of it won't be good for Greece, but at least the people will have made the decision.

One just has to be clear, that the decision is abandoning the euro - and, possibly, the EU.

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   I'm still wondering if Grexit will really happen, if only because of the precedent it would be setting.  If it goes ahead, and Greece actually starts rebounding economically in a few years, would that not be a clear examples to other weak economies in the eurozone that leaving it isn't the end of the world.  Or perhaps its the case that Germany and other strong economies in the eurozone are now thinking that a smaller eurozone, precedent or not precedent, is a good thing.

Oh, they will start rebounding. It is just from where.

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It would have been so much better if all this were accompanied by a European program designed to somewhat soften the impact of what is coming up on the population. This is what they should have been discussing all this time. And none of it seems likely now.

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It would have been so much better if all this were accompanied by a European program designed to somewhat soften the impact of what is coming up on the population. This is what they should have been discussing all this time. And none of it seems likely now.

I was idly wondering the other day whether maybe it would have made sense to propose some form of aid to social services alongside any demanded structural economic reforms of whatever.

May be, it would also have made sense to ask.

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The economic adjustment Greece must go through will be born by the middle and lower classes.  

For what reason? Why the 'adjustment' must fall on middle and lower classes? Are upper classes exempted in completion of some divine law? Are you sure that there are no other options? Defaulting on the IMF and ECB, for instance? Have you considered the moral and political implications of your assertion?

He simply has considered the implications of defaulting on IMF and ECB.

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He simply has considered the implications of defaulting on IMF and ECB.

He implicitly admitted that the choice is between sudden impact and agony, given that apparently is "set in stone" that both ways lead to impoverishment. Do you think is better defaulting on lower and middle classes?

Ah, but all options include that, I am afraid. There is no choice there. At least none, that anybody - including the current Greek government - would consider.

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He simply has considered the implications of defaulting on IMF and ECB.

He implicitly admitted that the choice is between sudden impact and agony, given that apparently is "set in stone" that both ways lead to impoverishment. Do you think is better defaulting on lower and middle classes?

Ah, but all options include that, I am afraid. There is no choice there. At least none, that anybody - including the current Greek government - would consider.

If there's no choice is because some of the parts involved want it in that way. In case there had been an actual interest in finding some relief for Greece, they would have considered options like the one exposed above. Needless to say that all is morally nauseating.

No Greek government has ever asked for anything that would realistically help its middle class or its poor. Most definitely, THIS Greek government has not. They cared too much about pride and not enough about their own people.

[ag]

He simply has considered the implications of defaulting on IMF and ECB.

He implicitly admitted that the choice is between sudden impact and agony, given that apparently is "set in stone" that both ways lead to impoverishment. Do you think is better defaulting on lower and middle classes?

Ah, but all options include that, I am afraid. There is no choice there. At least none, that anybody - including the current Greek government - would consider.

If there's no choice is because some of the parts involved want it in that way. In case there had been an actual interest in finding some relief for Greece, they would have considered options like the one exposed above. Needless to say that all is morally nauseating.

No Greek government has ever asked for anything that would realistically help its middle class or its poor. Most definitely, THIS Greek government has not. They cared too much about pride and not enough about their own people.

How can this Greek government help realistically the middle and lower class when it's depending on the financial assistance of certain institutions demanding more and more burdens on that sector of the population?  

They should have been asking for social programs helping to deal with the dislocation. It should have been a negotiated exit from euro. Of course, it would have required certain humility.

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First poll?

Greece [KappaResearch/@tovimagr poll]:
· 47.2% vote Yes (for agreement)
· 33% No
· 18.4% undecided
https://twitter.com/YanniKouts/status/614896548791590913

Would be funny if the people would vote to swallow their pride - with the government urging them not to.

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They should have been asking for social programs helping to deal with the dislocation. It should have been a negotiated exit from euro. Of course, it would have required certain humility.

This will not work.  What Tsipras promised was that Greece can stay in the Euro and somehow the austerity program go away and the debt forgiven.  So to start down the path of Euro exit on his own will destroy him politically just as agreeing to more austerity with the EU will do the same.

Well, he volunteered to becom the PM in these circumstances. Being destroyed politically is an implication. If he was worried about it, he should have avoided taking this office.

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If the bankers don't want to negotiate with a left-wing government because they'd rather destroy it, then Greece should just declare bankruptcy and stop all payments.

 It, probably, will, anyway. That is pretty much a given at this point. Good luck to Greeks. Unlike them, the "bankers" will manage.

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They should have been asking for social programs helping to deal with the dislocation. It should have been a negotiated exit from euro. Of course, it would have required certain humility.

Was Grexit a starting point in the bargaining between the new Greek administration, the EU and the other institutions? I'd swear that some sworn statements were made, assuring that Greece would stay in the Eurozone and in neither case send to the cold. I'm not sure what kind of humility is some people asking for. Given how Greeks have been treated by the Troika and the current Greek administration demonised, certain statements are quite understandable. Maybe Tsipras and other cabinet members should have been a bit more cautious with words but... 'humble'?

When you go begging for money, you do well to be somewhat restrained in insulting the people you ask to give you the money. Seems like common sense.

But the point is, actually, it would have been a lot better, from the standpoint of an average Greek, if Grexit had been negotiated by the previous Greek government. Because what is happening today seems to be a huge disaster, into which Greece is driven headlong by a bunch of headstrong amateurs.

This has nothing to do with being leftist or rightist. But everything to do with caring a lot more about national pride than about one's own people.

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What will they pay the printing press employees with? Scrip printed on the same press?

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The situation it inherited was bad, but this government simply went suicidal.

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What Greece now needs is a dictatorship of the proletariat. If you're not familiar with the concept, read about it before insulting me.

I am more than familiar with the concept. Why, exactly, do you want to kill so many Greek children?

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Supported SYRIZA up until the point. Supported leaving the EU. How is closing down the banks a good thing though?

It is inevitable, at this point. If the banks open, there will be a run on the bank, with everybody withdrawing every single cent they are allowed to withdraw. Banks cannot reopen until either the Greeks vote to accept the conditions, or drahma is reintroduced.

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Puerto Rico might default. Does that mean it will be kicked out of the Dollarzone?

I am sure that if Greece gives up pretense of sovereignty by becoming a some other country's commonwealth, something might be thought up. Perhaps, Germans would even allow the Greeks to send a single non-voting member to the Bundestag (I would not be as optimistic if they choose the Russians instead).

Seriously though, it is not the matter of Greece being "kicked out" of the eurozone. The problem for Greece is, that, conditional on defaulting, being outside the euro is infinitely preferable to being inside. Greece really needs to devalue at this point. That is the only thing that can limit the pain of adjustment that will be happening now. And, of course, you can only devalue if you have your own currency.

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It's a sad indictment of the competence of European politicians (within and outside of Greece) that THIS fcking mess is what we ended up with.

An orderly Grexit 4 years ago would have been infinitely better.

Have to agree.

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So far Europe is containing the contagion.  

So far. The acid test is the Grexit itself. Personally I wish that contingency can be avoided, as well we need desperately that the parts involved find a "sustainable path" for a solution etcetera. However I know that turkeys in Germany and other places are giddy with excitement, because they adore Christmas.

Grexit has pretty much happened, I am afraid. Even if the Geeks vote "yes", it may be too late to go back where we were a week ago.

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No one in their right mind would want to go back a week ago. This endless vicious circle must be broken and Grexit is certainly the worst solution for everybody, right and now.

Well, Greek government has chosen it. And wants its choice ratified in a popular vote.

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No, that's false. Greek government has faced an ultimatum and refused to submit for legitimate reasons. Given that the situation is desperate, it's almost mandatory to confront the decission to people's verdict.

You have a strange notion of what ultimatum is. Ultimatum is what Austrians gave the Serbs in 1914.  It had a deadline of 48 hours and only two possible responses: yes and no. That was an ultimatum.

In contrast, Europeans have been talking to the Greeks for years now, and were very willing to continue to negotiate. It is the Greeks who broke the negotiations. In fact, the government seems to have done that without even talking to its own negotiators. The Greek government's "legitimate reason" seems to be simply that they lilke seeing Greek children starve.

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Greece should vote "no" and be ready to leave the Euro if necessary, says Krugman.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/29/opinion/paul-krugman-greece-over-the-brink.html?_r=0
 

Now, leaving the Euro is, probably, a legitimate thing to do under the circumstances. In fact, Greeks should have been negotiating how to do this, while minimizing the negative consequences for its people. Of course, they never even considered doing that - because the last thing they care about is the Greek people.