Greek Referendum on IMF/Troika deal

[Bacon King]

I doubt many KKE supporters will be voting Yes in the referendum

[Bacon King]

Good job ignoring the three other polls that came out today with No leads. ProRata has No up 54-33, Focus (??) has No up 40-37, and trusty Palmost Analysis has No up 52-37.

Focus is just the name of the radio station that published the poll. It was conducted by a small-time pollster called To The Point.


Here's how accurate each of the four pollsters were in their last 2015 election poll, to compare bias as well as general competency:

GPO (Yes +3.9): overestimated ND by +1.8, overestimated SYRIZA by +0.7, underestimated ANEL by -0.9

To The Point (No + 3.2): overestimated ND by +2.8, underestimated SYRIZA by -1.7, off by 1.0 or more with PASOK, ANEL, KKE, Potomi

ProRata (No + 21.0): overestimated Potami by +1.5, all other parties accurate within +/- 0.5

Palmos Analysis (No + 15.0): underestimated ND by -2.3, overestimated Potami by +1.5, underestimated ANEL by -0.8, all other parties accurate +/- 0.5

[Bacon King]

Tsipras has provided the Troika with head of Varoufakis as proof of his desire for a new deal

[Bacon King]

Fun fact for people arguing Greece should cut it's military spending because 2% of GDP is too high: that 2% is actually the minimum acceptable spending level per the terms of their NATO membership treaty

[Bacon King]

Did this poll ask for who voted null.  I am surprised how high the No vote for KKE is.  I figured a bunch of KKE voted null.  But I agree that the non-null KKE voter for sure voted No which is what this exit poll is picking up.

A quick check of that one KKE-voting island (Ikarias)

53% turnout (ten points lower than national rate)

88% of votes valid (six points lower than national rate)
11% of votes invalid (approx double the national rate)
1% of votes blank (approx 125% of national rate)

80% NO
20% YES

no idea if Communist island is a representative sample of KKE voters elsewhere but that's the easiest way to see how KKE voted via municipality vote data

[Bacon King]

I want to see Merkel et al go ahead and try to kick Greece out of the Eurozone... only for the European courts to overrule it for violating their treaties with Greece

[Bacon King]

Then, either Greece introduces the drachma voluntarily,  or it completely paralizes its own economy for an indefinite period. It is a choice: drachma, or your grandma starves.

Are you aware this sounds like it's a public policy prescription from Marlon Brando's character in the Godfather?

Honestly I'd be much more willing to agree with the non-Greek side in this debate if their rhetoric wasn't so consistently toxic

[Bacon King]

IMF now unequivocally demanding that Europe gives Greece more debt relief