Greek Referendum on IMF/Troika deal

[Antonio the Sixth]

That was the right decision from Tsipras. Whatever comes out of it won't be good for Greece, but at least the people will have made the decision.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The Articles of Confederation is the perfect metaphor for what the EU is right now. The only problem is, we have no James Madison and Alexander Hamilton to save us from this mess.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Council of Europe said Greferendum falls short of European standards, a description last applied to Crimea.

Why exactly?

No matter how the question is worded, the Greek know full well what's at stake.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Suddenly this discussion has taken a weird turn...

[Antonio the Sixth]

To be fair, the results of a poll like that are almost entirely unpredictable. Too many unforeseen factors that could change everything until the very last moment.

So, market predictions are worthless, but so are polls.

[Antonio the Sixth]

What happens to Greece, and to the Eurozone,  if Greece gets no more cash from its lenders, so it can only spend what it takes in? What I am asking is assuming Greece never pays a dime back of its debt, but gets no more loans, what happens? What percent of its spending at the moment is red ink? I mean at the end of the day, nobody can force Greece to repay anything, but on the other hand, Greece can't force anybody to lend it more money either. So that to me seems the stalemate endgame.

What happens? Greece will have to print money, which means it has to leave the Euro. Officially, no one wants to get there. Unofficially, Schäuble and his fellow austerity hawks seem bent on doing anything in their power to make sure it happens.

[Antonio the Sixth]

First result in: 59-41 NO, 7% reporting.

More significantly, if the ministry's map is to be trusted, NO seems to be leading almost everywhere in the country.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Good for the Greek people. If the austericrats refuse to heed this message, they will have to bear the responsibility of kicking Greece out.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Good for the Greek people. If the austericrats refuse to heed this message, they will have to bear the responsibility of kicking Greece out.

Greek people have freely and without interference voted to get out of the euro. Their voice should be heard.

No, the Greeks have said that they will not bend to any conditions to stay in the Euro. They will be out if they are forced to by the draconian and absurd conditions imposed by Lagarde and Schaeuble.

[Antonio the Sixth]

What happens next will be the ultimate test for Europe. Can we set aside our bankrupt "morality" and shortsighted selfishness just for one second to avoid a humanitarian disaster? Or do we only care about "punishing" those who refuse to sacrifice themselves to the failed dogma of austerity?

I stand with the Greek people and their brave leader. And I stand with all Europeans who want more from their union than a neoliberal thought police.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Tsipras spoke to Merkel, they agreed he will present proposals at tomorrow's summit - Reuters. Also said the Greek proposals will be based on Juncker's last-minute offer.

The only fundamental disagreement has always been about debt relief. If this issue is finally included in the negotiations, there is no reason an agreement can't be found.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Easier said than done when Germany is pretty much ignoring the outcome of the referendum and demanding pretty much the same things they were before and rejecting any sort of debt relief.

The only way Greece will get relief right now is the Grexit way.

Then they should make it clear they're not actually interested in negotiating. Let's stop pretending you just want to sit and talk when in fact you have never accepted a single proposal from Greece.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Looks like the result of the Merkel-Hollande meeting is that Merkel says that Greece must bring precise proposal tomorrow. Read: Tsipras better show up with exact details on what austerity measures he will implement and in return we might disuses some debt write-downs in the future linked to these austerity measures being implemented.

There'd better be something concrete on this side though, otherwise it will not be an actual negotiation, but a shameless diktat.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Renzi: all EU leaders will meet on Sunday, waiting for new Greek proposals then.

Sunday? Seriously? Does nobody (and yeah, that includes Tsipras) understand the urgency of the situation?

[Antonio the Sixth]

EU ask Greece to put out a plan for several purposes.

1: EU expect the member countries to know best what kind of reforms they can make.

That may be the most hilarious thing I've read all week !

Yeah, it's an especially ludicrous claim considering that they rebuked the first set of (perfectly credible and sound) reforms that Tsipras had proposed because they weren't neoliberal enough for their taste...

[Antonio the Sixth]

There were talks about Tsipras addressing the EP tomorrow. Is this confirmed?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Summit may be cancelled if Greece comes up with an acceptable plan by deadline. Implication is that if no, Sunday would be talking Grexit.

By acceptable, you mean do what they've done for the last 4 years and have the usual downward spiral of austerity causing GDP contraction that requires more austerity?

Anyting, that would avoid the spontaneous drachma.

Tsipras had already submitted financially sound proposals during the early negotiation phase, and the creditors rejected them because they weren't neoliberal enough.

[Antonio the Sixth]

BILD went off the deep end and turned fully nationalist now.



"No new billions for Greece - Today we need the Iron Chancellor"

Now? Bild has always been a chauvinist rag.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The Telegraph is claiming that Tsipras called the referendum with the expectation and secret intention that the "Yes" side would win, and that he was shocked to see the "No" side emerge victorious:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11724924/Europe-is-blowing-itself-apart-over-Greece-and-nobody-can-stop-it.html

I don't buy it. He was the main spokesman for the "no" camp, so if he wanted "yes" to win, all he had to do was deliberately run a bad campaign. Tsipras knows how to win elections, so he would know how to lose them.

Besides, I don't think the Telegraph has much credibility in general, and even less on a topic like this.

[Antonio the Sixth]

And Antonio, what about their masterful application of GAME THEORY?

Where does this meme come from anyway?

[Antonio the Sixth]

And there you go, Germans officially dropped the mask. They never wanted to find a mutually acceptable compromise to keep Greece in the Eurozone. All they wanted is an excuse to kick it out. Whatever Tsipras could have done, it wouldn't have changed their position.

Some countries never learn the lessons from their own history.

[Antonio the Sixth]

And there you go, Germans officially dropped the mask. They never wanted to find a mutually acceptable compromise to keep Greece in the Eurozone. All they wanted is an excuse to kick it out. Whatever Tsipras could have done, it wouldn't have changed their position.

Some countries never learn the lessons from their own history.

Germans or the Finns?

The Finns, Slovaks and all those other self-righteous pricks are part of the chorus, but it's Germany that leads it. Without Germany leading the way, those countries wouldn't amount to anything.

[Antonio the Sixth]

And there you go, Germans officially dropped the mask. They never wanted to find a mutually acceptable compromise to keep Greece in the Eurozone. All they wanted is an excuse to kick it out. Whatever Tsipras could have done, it wouldn't have changed their position.

Some countries never learn the lessons from their own history.

Germans or the Finns?

The Finns, Slovaks and all those other self-righteous pricks are part of the chorus, but it's Germany that leads it. Without Germany leading the way, those countries wouldn't amount to anything.

GDP per capita

Greece 21,653
Slovakia 18,454

Yes "self-righteous pricks".

I guess they won't be satisfied until Greece's GDP per capita drops below theirs. At the current rate, it should only take a couple years.

[Antonio the Sixth]

It really has become hard to contend any longer that these institutions are acting in anything more than vaguely approximating good faith, hasn't it?

Not that this will stop Ingermann and his fellow austerity creeps from blaming it all on the Greeks.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Politico: speculation growing that Tsipras will reshuffle his Cabinet and call a snap election.

What's the point, if Tsipras already can do whatever he wants? Does he want to lose? Not to mention it's a waste of money.

Getting rid of ANEL will certainly help them address serious issues like military spending and fiscal privileges for the Church and the ship industry. Of course, even this won't make much difference if he has to negotiate with austerity fanatics.