Greek Referendum on IMF/Troika deal

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If the bankers don't want to negotiate with a left-wing government because they'd rather destroy it, then Greece should just declare bankruptcy and stop all payments.

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First poll?

Greece [KappaResearch/@tovimagr poll]:
· 47.2% vote Yes (for agreement)
· 33% No
· 18.4% undecided
https://twitter.com/YanniKouts/status/614896548791590913

Would be funny if the people would vote to swallow their pride - with the government urging them not to.

It would be more ironic if they vote to stay in the Euro after the Eurogroup kicked them out by failing to extend the deadline a week.

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Puerto Rico might default. Does that mean it will be kicked out of the Dollarzone?

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The EU is definitely not the US. This is what happens in the US. We subsidize Mississippi year after year. The EU doesn't subsidize Greece.  But somehow, I think a lot of Greece bashers are fine with subsidizing Mississippi.

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http://www.vox.com/2015/6/29/8863313/theres-a-simple-solution-to-greeces-problems-but-europe-wont-try-it

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How likely is it that Greece has significant default but stays in the euro?

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Paddy Power offered odds of 2/7 – representing an 80 percent chance of a Yes vote.  It indicates that 85% of all bets are for Yes.

That's odd because 3 of the 4 polls here have No ahead, and 2 by a large margin
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_bailout_referendum,_2015

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How dare the Greeks not cower for the bankers, whose austerity they ordered caused the economy to shrink by 25%? How dare they!

Imagine if every time the an American state ended up in economic trouble, all 50 governors had to get together and hash out a solution. This is a farce.

Or Puerto Rico.

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Finance ministry is examining options to take direct control of the banking system and replacing the BOG governor.

Reaction from here in Canada: confident in Eurozone stability, urging continued negotiation.

France realizes that the bankers are taking too hard of a line.

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Calling a referendum at the last minute that was nothing more than a negotiating ploy. If Tsipras cared about democracy, he would have called something weeks ago which would have given the Greek people the opportunity to have a proper debate about their future within or without the eurozone.

Yes.   I have no issues with a referendum as a way of sharing political costs of a perceived harsh but necessary deal.  What he could have done is to tell the EU, say a month ago, "You know what we Greeks want, give me the best final deal you got in 5 days.  I will then start a referendum process where we will explain the deal in practical terms as well as the pros and cons of such a deal.  We will also explain that if the Greeks do not accept the deal which is the best one you can come up with, then we have no choice but to default on the debt and exit the EUR."  That will make the EU come up with best but realistic deal possible and the Greek voters will have weeks to understand the contents and consequences of what they are voting for.  And if they vote yes,  Tsipras can correctly claim that while he did not carry out his election promises of Jan 2015 he did the best he could and the Greek population was ok with what he came up with.
 

Clearly he thought the bankers would stop taking such a hardline nearer to the deadline. But it's clear they wanted to make an example of Greece.

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What he could have done is to tell the EU, say a month ago, "You know what we Greeks want, give me the best final deal you got in 5 days.  I will then start a referendum process where we will explain the deal in practical terms as well as the pros and cons of such a deal.  We will also explain that if the Greeks do not accept the deal which is the best one you can come up with, then we have no choice but to default on the debt and exit the EUR."  ...

Yup...and instead we got a 1 week populist circle jerk, complete with appeals to the most base nationalist emotions and accusations of terrorism against European institutions. Not exactly a great example of democracy at work imo.

Germans should read this before they criticize Greece.

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/feb/27/greece-spain-helped-germany-recover

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You haven't been subsidizing Greece, you have been subsidizing Greece's creditors.

who, in turn, have been subsidizing Greece.

Greece has been subsidizing Germany since they forgave some of their debt in 1953.

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Varoufakis has resigned.

What!?! Why!? I thought he said he'd resign if it was a YES vote, and this obviously isn't that...

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http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/07/greek-finance-minister-varoufakis-announces-resignation-150706042047642.html

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Summit may be cancelled if Greece comes up with an acceptable plan by deadline. Implication is that if no, Sunday would be talking Grexit.

By acceptable, you mean do what they've done for the last 4 years and have the usual downward spiral of austerity causing GDP contraction that requires more austerity?

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And there you go, Germans officially dropped the mask.

Well, at least, you can now discard the idea that the Germans are trying to prevent Greece showing those captive Spaniards and Italians how great the life would be outside the euro.

If Greece had submitted a half ass proposal or had just decided to leave the eurozone, that would be one thing. But they really gave away quite a lot to the bankers, and so the other 18 countries are hardly united on whether they want Greece to go, and there will likely be a big mess of disagreements. They sure know how to make tragedies interesting in Greece.

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This is all going to plan as a Greek tragedy. This is what needs to happen next as a Greek tragedy.

Greece offers some more concessions to the bankers. Enough that anyone remotely sane realizes that they have bent over backwards. But not quite enough to get some of the most hardline countries like Germany and Finland to agree. Then after the deal is rejected, Greece needs to leave the eurozone and stop paying all external debts.

The resulting bickering in the eurezone between countries that really didn't want this to happen like France who suddenly are out a bunch of money and the hardline countries like Germany will be epic.

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Tusk expects to reconvene Eurosummit in a few minutes with a compromise proposal.

I'm assuming this will be one of those 'compromises' that is more hardline than what the creditors were originally asking for?

Even the Greek proposal is more hardline than what the creditors were originally asking for.

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http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/14/upshot/the-greek-deal-is-a-disaster-for-greece-and-maybe-for-europe.html

Agreed, they should have not told Greece exactly what to do. And I think making all their loans interest only for at least a couple of years would have been a good idea.

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IMF now unequivocally demanding that Europe gives Greece more debt relief 

When even the IMF decides that there's too much austerity......