When will gay marriage become universally accepted?

[RR1997]

Gay marriage has finally been legalized (hooray!), but when will gay marriage universally accepted?

When will the percentage of people who support gay marriage in the US hover up to the point where it's somewhere between 80-100%?

When will opposing gay marriage be equivalent to supporting racial segregation and opposing interracial marriages?

My opinion:

I think that gay marriage will be an issue in 2016, and the Republicans will call the ruling unconstitutional. Instead of opposing it on moral grounds, I think that the GOP will oppose it in the defense of states' rights.

By the time that the 2020 election comes around, I think that gay marriage will be a non-issue and a large majority will support it, but a significant minority will still oppose it.

 I think that it will stay that way until the 2030's. By the time the 2030's come along, I think that nearly everyone will support it, and opposing it will be equivalent to opposing interracial marriages.

 By the time the 2040's and 50's come along, I think that opposing gay marriage will become equivalent to supporting slavery and racial segregation.

 I could be wrong tho. Hopefully we as Americans progress faster than I expect us to.

Voted 2033-2038

What do you guys think?

[RR1997]

Here's an interesting chart that is relevant to the topic (outdated obviously):

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Not anytime during our lifetimes, if ever.


Humans still can't get over issues like race and gender. There will always be people who want to fight these fights. For the same reason that subconcious racism and misogyny is still a huge problem, so will blatant and subconcious homphobia.

Though I think the overwhelming majority of people do aspire to MLK Jr.'s dream of everyone being "judged by the content of their character", and not arbitrary traits, humans are inherently hardwired to differentiate, and I don't think we'll ever really get over issues like these. Pessimistic, I know

[Boston Bread]

I think Canadian support for SSM is about 80%, and it was legalized only 10 years ago here. I think the US will progress at the same pace and get there by 2025.

[RR1997]

Not anytime during our lifetimes, if ever.


Humans still can't get over issues like race and gender. There will always be people who want to fight these fights. For the same reason that subconcious racism and misogyny is still a huge problem, so will blatant and subconcious homphobia.

Though I think the overwhelming majority of people do aspire to MLK Jr.'s dream of everyone being "judged by the content of their character", and not arbitrary traits, humans are inherently hardwired to differentiate, and I don't think we'll ever really get over issues like these. Pessimistic, I know

I think you midunderstood my question.

Of course racism still exists, but if a political candidate supported bringing back segregation and banning interracial marriages, he would never get elected into any political office, and would be written off as a dangerous extremist.

Homophobia will always exist as well, but when will opposing gay marriage be equivalent to opposing interracial marriages and wanting to bring back segregation? When will opposing gay marriage be written off as a dangerous, extremist position to the point where a candidate would never win if he opposed SSM?

[Antonio the Sixth]

At the rate opinion has been shifting, probably within a decade.

Sure, some people are never going to change, but these people will be seen as complete freaks.

[eric82oslo]

To be honest, very much can happen within 3-5 years.

[bedstuy]

Not anytime in the next hundred years. 

Why do we have homophobia?  Fundamentalist religion and stupid macho bros who are mostly secretly gay.  Neither one is going away any time soon. 

[politicallefty]

Considering that support is already at 60% (±2-3%), I don't think it's a stretch to say that we'll see support rapidly climb now that the issue is settled. I think we'll see polls showing support for marriage equality above the two-thirds mark within a year or even by the end of this year. As support increases among the living (particularly so among the very young) and older people die off, I think we'll see 80% support somewhere around 2024 (though possibly even 2-3 years prior).

[CountryClassSF]

If there are no further infringements on religious liberty, and perhaps a Sister Souljah momeent with mainstream gays against the G.G. , I  probably will be able to move on from this subject.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

If there are no further infringements on religious liberty, I will probably will be able to move on from this subject.

This. While I wholeheartedly disagree with Justice Kennedy on this issue and likely always will, the fight is over and there is no sensible response aside from surrender.

[Del Tachi]

It really is dependent on how long it take for Catholics and Mainline Protestants to come-around on the issue, I suspect that by the 2030s only the most ardent conservative Evangelicals will raise religious objection to SSM.

The eventual outcome is something along the lines of "SSM is immoral, but it shouldn't be illegal (kind of like divorce)"   

[Mister Mets]

I'm guessing early 20s is when it hits 80 percent.

[Anti-Bothsidesism]

when the fundies die.

[Gunnar Larsson]

Here's an interesting chart that is relevant to the topic (outdated obviously):

Very surprised that it wasn't until 1995 that interracial marriages got majority approval. Do you know how the question was formulated in the poll? Something along the line "would you be ok with your child marrying someone of a different race" would assumably get a different answer than "should people of different races be alowed to marry". Still, 1995 is not that long ago.

[Torie]

Is the question whether SSM should be legal, or that one approves of it? Those are two different questions. The chart above about interracial marriage asks about approval of it, not whether or not it should be legal. I would be amazed if a majority thought interracial marriage should be illegal until 1995. Some folks think pot should be legal, while not approving of its use for recreational purposes.

[Frodo]

When the Silent Generation dies off as a political force:

 




So I'd say the 2020s.  

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

When the Silent Generation dies off as a political force:

 


So I'd say the 2020s.  

Where did you get that chart?

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Sooner than you think.

[Frodo]

When the Silent Generation dies off as a political force:

 


So I'd say the 2020s.  

Where did you get that chart?

Here ya go.