Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016
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  Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016
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Author Topic: Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016  (Read 84549 times)
Knives
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« Reply #25 on: July 02, 2015, 12:06:31 AM »

Labor's candidate for Deakin has one of the best campaign slogans I've seen.
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BigVic
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« Reply #26 on: July 05, 2015, 05:20:01 AM »

It is going to be one of the most unusual elections. Both party leaders are unpopular and the latest IPSOS poll shows Shorten and Abbott disapproval ratings at 59 and 55 percent respectively. Expecting lots of "donkey" votes in the next poll.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #27 on: July 05, 2015, 07:48:45 AM »
« Edited: July 05, 2015, 07:53:09 AM by Senator Polnut »

New polling out tonight, key elements: Shorten AND Abbott's approvals in the toilet (although Shorten is at new lows in both but people still generally more unhappy with Abbott), Shorten either tied or ahead of Abbott as preferred PM.

Fairfax/Ipsos

Primaries
LNP: 39% (-1)
ALP: 35% (-2)
GRN: 16% (+2)

TPP:
LNP: 47%
ALP: 53%

Approval
Abbott: 36% (-4)
Shorten: 35% (-6)

Disapproval
Abbott: 59% (+5)
Shorten: 55% (+8)

Preferred PM
Abbott: 39% (-2)
Shorten: 43% (+1)

Newspoll (now by Galaxy)

Primaries
LNP: 40% (nc)
ALP: 37% (+3)
GRN: 13% (-1)

TPP
LNP: 48% (-1)
ALP: 52% (+1)

Satisfaction
Abbott: 33%
Shorten: 28%

Dissatisfaction
Abbott: 60%
Shorten: 56%

Preferred PM
Abbott: 39%
Shorten: 39%

Basically, no good news for anyone, outside of the Greens. But the remarkable thing is, despite the massive collapse in Shorten's personal standing, the ALP is not losing votes and is retaining it's lead. Interesting note, of the last 150 polls, the ALP has led in 148 of them. I've heard a lot of people say "the Government is in no worse position than many first term Governments..." Pretty much wrong. This is the worst performing first term Government for four decades, and the worst performing Prime Minister. Funnily, for all of this drama about Shorten's collapse, he's still one of the best performing opposition leaders against a first-term government, but he will be appearing before the *coughhatchetjobcough* Royal Commission on Union Corruption this coming week... and that could well be an important step if the Government decides to go early.
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #28 on: July 05, 2015, 12:03:19 PM »

Abbott could look to Keating in '93 for hope, though that election was really a GST referendum, no?
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« Reply #29 on: July 05, 2015, 12:36:04 PM »

Wow, does Ipsos normally lean Gren? That's a good number for Di Natale et al.

Where would they target? I assume Sydney and Grayndler are safe ALP because of their heavyweight incumbents.
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DL
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« Reply #30 on: July 05, 2015, 01:06:02 PM »

Why is Shorten so unpopular...just a few months ago he seemed to have very robust approval numbers...I heard him give a speech in Montreal a few years ago and i thought he was great!
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morgieb
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« Reply #31 on: July 05, 2015, 09:03:24 PM »

Wow, does Ipsos normally lean Gren? That's a good number for Di Natale et al.

Where would they target? I assume Sydney and Grayndler are safe ALP because of their heavyweight incumbents.
Given preferencing issues, I'd be targeting Liberal-held seats. Wentworth could be worth its time if the seat were open. Maybe one of those North Coast seats? Greens did pick up Ballina and (almost) Lismore in the recent state election....
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #32 on: July 07, 2015, 04:02:43 PM »

Does Australia have a site like ThreeHundredEight.com for Canada and 538 for the US?
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Talleyrand
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« Reply #33 on: July 07, 2015, 05:15:22 PM »

Does Australia have a site like ThreeHundredEight.com for Canada and 538 for the US?

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/

This is probably the closest you'll get to one. There are also a lot of interesting links on the sidebar, including Antony Green's blog.
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Talleyrand
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« Reply #34 on: July 08, 2015, 07:31:22 PM »

Former New England Independent MP Tony Windsor is considering a political comeback.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-07-09/tony-windsor-considers-political-comeback-in-light-of-mine/6606022
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #35 on: July 08, 2015, 08:18:57 PM »


I cannot begin to tell you how much I want this to happen.
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doktorb
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« Reply #36 on: July 09, 2015, 02:35:09 AM »

Labor's candidate for Deakin has one of the best campaign slogans I've seen.

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Talleyrand
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« Reply #37 on: July 13, 2015, 08:41:09 AM »

I know it's Morgan... but it now has Labor's lead whittling down to 51-49.

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/07/13/morgan-51-49-to-labor/

Two ReachTel polls also show the Liberals doing well in the northern Tasmania seats of Bass and Lyons, which were gained from Labor incumbent in 2013. Interestingly enough, the Morgan poll had Labor ahead 58-42 in the Tasmania TPP (although much of that is probably based in Denison, where Wilkie is safe, and their only seat right now, Franklin). Then again, constituency polling is a wreck. Tongue

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Talleyrand
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« Reply #38 on: August 06, 2015, 03:13:12 PM »

Abbott is visiting South Australia heavily and making multiple funding promises in midst of horrible polling in the state, including a $40 billion shipbuilding contract.

These are the three seats the Liberals are scared of losing.

Hindmarsh (1.9%) - This will be a rematch of 2013, with former 3 term Labor MP Steve Georganas recontesting the seat he lost to first time MP Matt Williams. An ACTU poll back in 2013 had the incumbent holding up fairly well, but if statewide polling is correct, this is the lowest-hanging fruit for the ALP. It would be an extremely poor result if they didn't win it back.

Boothby (7.1%) - Labor whittled down the margin in this seat in five consecutive elections to less than 1% in 2010 when they were led by hometown girl Julia Gillard, but it bounced back heavily to longtime MP Andrew Southcott in 2013 amid Labor's election disaster that year. Southcott is now a leading contender for Speaker, and this could make the race for this seat (already set to be close) pretty exciting, especially if popular independent Nick Xenophon runs a candidate here and directs preferences against the Liberals. Labor is running their unsuccessful candidate in the Davenport by-election earlier this year here.

Sturt (10.3%) - Chris Pyne's seat should be safe, but it has been marginal before, including when it almost fell to Labor in 2007. The biggest danger here would be if the Xenophon Group stood a candidate here. A union poll had him heading for a heavy defeat in that case, although otherwise he should be o.k.

http://www.skynews.com.au/news/top-stories/2015/07/29/pyne-rejects-polling-showing-he-may-lose-seat.html
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Knives
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« Reply #39 on: August 06, 2015, 10:36:19 PM »

idk who is running the Victorian Labor page atm but it's lowkey embarrassing yet hilarious at the same time.
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Talleyrand
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« Reply #40 on: August 09, 2015, 08:15:05 AM »

Newspoll is out.

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/08/09/newspoll-54-46-to-labor-8/

TPP

Labor - 54% (+1)
Liberal/National - 46% (-1)

Primary

Liberal/National - 39% (-1)
Labor - 39% (0)
Greens - 13% (+1)
Others - 9% (0)

PPM

Abbott - 38% (-1)
Shorten - 38% (+2)

Abbott Satisfaction

Approve - 33% (0)
Disapprove - 61% (+1)

Shorten Satisfaction

Approve - 29% (+2)
Disapprove - 57% (-2)



ReachTel yesterday had it had 53-47, with 59-41 on Shorten as PPM. Apparently internal ALP polling has them ahead 53-47 with Abbott, with massive swings in VIC, SA, and WA, a decent result in QLD, and mediocre results in NSW/TAS. Without Abbott, they trail 49-51.
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DL
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« Reply #41 on: August 09, 2015, 12:08:37 PM »

Why does Shorten have such high disapproval numbers? Seems odd for that to happen to an opposition leader. I heard him speak a couple of years ago and i thought he was fantastic
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CrabCake
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« Reply #42 on: August 09, 2015, 12:24:55 PM »
« Edited: August 09, 2015, 12:28:29 PM by Crabby And His Moron Brothers »

He was a key player in The Curious Saga of Rudds and Gillards, where he played a somewhat opportunistic, almost nasty role in knifing both leaders. To a lot of the Aussie public he is nothing but a slimy union leadership hack. (My Australian uncle was visiting the other day, and said that phras almost verbatim in fact). That puts him vulnerable to attacks from the right (who resent unions) and the left (his affiliate union, the AWU is the most powerful force of the Labor Right; and the knifing of Rudd was associated with the pro-mining lobby loathed by greens and their allies).

A lot of people dislike the ALP's factional culture and powerful "faceless men", more to the point, and a man like Shorten - a product of such a culture - feels like the ALP is dragging its feet on internal reform.
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #43 on: August 09, 2015, 12:54:45 PM »

The good news for Shorten is that Keating never had a net positive approval rating and won the 1993 election with similar numbers to what he (Shorten) is getting now.
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Talleyrand
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« Reply #44 on: August 10, 2015, 08:26:47 AM »

The good news for Shorten is that Keating never had a net positive approval rating and won the 1993 election with similar numbers to what he (Shorten) is getting now.

The issue there is that he while he was unpopular, he was probably grudgingly respected and seen as capable by much of the Australian public. In addition, he had an incumbency advantage and a succesful eight year tenure as Treasurer to go on. Shorten doesn't have either of those boons, although in his benefit is the fact that Abbott clearly is probably not seen as capable by the electorate at this point. Either way, that's a flawed analogy IMO.

Meanwhile, Morgan is out.

http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/6387-morgan-poll-federal-voting-intention-august-10-2015-201508100947

They have the ALP ahead 57-43 on respondent-allocated preferences, up from 54-46 last time. However, this is only 54.5-45.5 based on 2013 flows.

The state cross tabs are only one of the reasons no one is going to believe this.

VIC- ALP 60.5/LNP 30.5
SA- ALP 59/LNP 41
WA- ALP 57.5/LNP 42.5 (Huh)
QLD- ALP 54.5/LNP 45.5
TAS- ALP 57/LNP 43
NSW- ALP 54.5/45.5
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CrabCake
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« Reply #45 on: August 10, 2015, 08:38:22 AM »

Morgan seems to be very much leftier than The others, but predicted '13 fairly well?

In regards to WA, they have a mediocre Coalition government and are seeing the bum end of the mining boom. They also have been experiencing an oddly high Green vote since the Ludlam by-election although that could be disspating (no minor party cross tabs sadly).

Young people (18-24) 67% ALP!
Even the two cross-tabs covering 25-49 are overwhelmingly Labor, and even 65+ only leans ALP.
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Talleyrand
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« Reply #46 on: August 11, 2015, 08:33:22 AM »

Morgan seems to be very much leftier than The others, but predicted '13 fairly well?

In regards to WA, they have a mediocre Coalition government and are seeing the bum end of the mining boom. They also have been experiencing an oddly high Green vote since the Ludlam by-election although that could be disspating (no minor party cross tabs sadly).


Yeah, Morgan's final poll in 2013 hit the nail on the election.

It isn't surprising that the Coalition has declined in WA for the reasons you stated, but it's totally unbelievable that they've falled to less than 43%, which is why I can't take this poll too seriously. Tongue

Meanwhile Essential has no change (as usual), with the ALP ahead 53-47. Abbott is at 38-53 and Shorten at 29-52, with the former ahead on PPM by 36-32.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #47 on: August 17, 2015, 07:48:33 AM »

Why does Shorten have such high disapproval numbers? Seems odd for that to happen to an opposition leader. I heard him speak a couple of years ago and i thought he was fantastic

For first term Opposition Leaders high negative ratings and low preferred PM ratings are the norm.
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Talleyrand
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« Reply #48 on: September 17, 2015, 07:15:14 PM »

The Coalition has stormed to an election-winning lead in the newest Galaxy.

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/09/18/galaxy-51-49-to-coalition-2/

They lead 51-49, with primary votes at 44-36-11.

Turnbull has a massive 51-20 lead over Shorten on PPM. RIP Bill. Sad
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #49 on: September 17, 2015, 07:16:51 PM »
« Edited: September 17, 2015, 07:23:43 PM by Fmr President & Senator Polnut »

The Coalition has stormed to an election-winning lead in the newest Galaxy.

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/09/18/galaxy-51-49-to-coalition-2/

They lead 51-49, with primary votes at 44-36-11.

Turnbull has a massive 51-20 lead over Shorten on PPM. RIP Bill. Sad

This is what Talley has been waiting for.

This is the sugar hit, what matters is whether this is sustained.


The degree to which Abbott's removal has been greeting with a sigh of relief is actually so much stronger than I expected. It seems everyone except the rabid right is pleased. So, of course, the LNP number will bounce and the PPM number will surge in Turnbull's favour. This is what pretty much everyone expected would happen.
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