Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016

[Barnes]

Quite a rush back to the Coalition, yes, but we all know the large personality following that Turnbull has amassed.  I must be honest, but I have yet to find him particularly impressive in the role, and the media darling track has been rather annoying.

Of course, I would say that in the face of numbers such as this, but these are very early days.  I still believe that there are deeper structural issues with Coalition support that will take longer than three days to repair, although Turnbull will be much more successful at doing so.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Quite a rush back to the Coalition, yes, but we all know the large personality following that Turnbull has amassed.  I must be honest, but I have yet to find him particularly impressive in the role, and the media darling track has been rather annoying.

Of course, I would say that in the face of numbers such as this, but these are very early days.  I still believe that there are deeper structural issues with Coalition support that will take longer than three days to repair, although Turnbull will be much more successful at doing so.

If anything, most of the commentary is referring to the Turnbull bounce so far as being "modest".

There's a Newspoll in the field this weekend maybe an Ipsos and likely Morgan too.

[MaxQue]

I'm surprised it's not 53 or 54 for Turnbull.

[Talleyrand]

http://www.skynews.com.au/news/top-stories/2015/09/21/turnbull-gives-govt-12-point-poll-bounce.html

Morgan has the Liberals powearing into a 55-45 lead, up from a monster 43-57 deficit last time. Their primary vote is 48-29 up from 35-36 last time!

It's increasingly likely Turnbull will win an increased majority. Incredible turnaround.

[Phony Moderate]

http://www.skynews.com.au/news/top-stories/2015/09/21/turnbull-gives-govt-12-point-poll-bounce.html

Morgan has the Liberals powearing into a 55-45 lead, up from a monster 43-57 deficit last time. Their primary vote is 48-29 up from 35-36 last time!

It's increasingly likely Turnbull will win an increased majority. Incredible turnaround.

How is an increased majority likely? That Morgan poll is, I think, by far the Coalition's best since the spill and it is only a slightly bigger lead than what was achieved at the last election.

[DL]

http://www.skynews.com.au/news/top-stories/2015/09/21/turnbull-gives-govt-12-point-poll-bounce.html

Morgan has the Liberals powearing into a 55-45 lead, up from a monster 43-57 deficit last time. Their primary vote is 48-29 up from 35-36 last time!

It's increasingly likely Turnbull will win an increased majority. Incredible turnaround.

Whoa...shouldnt we wait a few months to let him accumulate some baggage as PM first and for the honeymoon to wear off. Remember how when Gillard replaced Rudd after a spill, the initial polls suggested that she would win in a landslide and then her support eroded and she ended up dead even with the Liberals

[Talleyrand]

Neither Rudd nor Gillard recorded a 12% boost for their party when they seized the leadership, and it would be a significant 1.5% swing in their favor from the last election. Howard recorded TPP swings in his favor larger than that twice in 2001 and 2004, so it's eminently possible. Turnbull has already begun the process of bringing about competent, reasonable government and the media's attention is now on the increasingly panicky and desperate ALP.

Turnbull is widely popular with the Australian public (keep in mind this man has a 12% personal vote in his electorate!!!). The honeymoon may wear off, but he will easily win the next election, with or without an increased majority.

In addition, Gillard had a (very small) boost at all. There was one poll showing her ahead 55-45, but others had varying results, including some showing little or no change at all. And that quickly disappeared because of the circumstances of the knifing and her poor political skills (and I say this as a fan of her's). Turnbull won't have those disadvantages. I'm really quite excited for the positive changes he will bring as PM for at least two terms to come.

[Phony Moderate]

Surely a lot of the boost has something to do with Turnbull simply not being Abbott.

[Talleyrand]

Update-

Newspoll is out and the Coalition has taken a 51-49 lead. Look for this to increase in the coming weeks.

TPP

Liberal/National - 51% (+5)
Labor - 49% (-5)

Primary

Liberal/National - 44% (+5)
Labor - 35% (-4)
Greens - 11% (-1)
Others - 10% (0)

PPM

Turnbull - 55%
Shorten - 21%

Abbott Satisfaction

Approve - 42%
Disapprove - 24%

Shorten Satisfaction

Approve - 29% (-1)
Disapprove - 54% (-4)

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/09/22/newspoll-51-49-to-coalition-7/

Surely a lot of the boost has something to do with Turnbull simply not being Abbott.

Of course! As Shorten said, even Cory Bernardi would have improved in the polls from Abbott, but Turnbull has a unique, powerful appeal to middle Australia that another leader (like Scott Morrison) could not have replicated.

[DL]

Turnbull won't have those disadvantages. I'm really quite excited for the positive changes he will bring as PM for at least two terms to come.

Can someone explain something to me, if Turnbull is so great - why is it that he was leader of the Liberals a few years ago and then before he could even fight an election they dumped him in favour of Abbott?

[Talleyrand]

Turnbull won't have those disadvantages. I'm really quite excited for the positive changes he will bring as PM for at least two terms to come.

Can someone explain something to me, if Turnbull is so great - why is it that he was leader of the Liberals a few years ago and then before he could even fight an election they dumped him in favour of Abbott?

3 reasons.

1. Rudd was still extremely popular at the time (even in spite of this Turnbull significantly narrowed his lead)

2. He showed political courage on the Climate Change Bill which some couldn't tolerate

3. He was undermined by lesser individuals jealous of his perch

[Knives]

Dude obvs Turnbull has changed the game but like chill lol. Give it a couple of months and if the polling holds up you can then call his your Messiah.

[Talleyrand]

Essential has it as 50-50, but some of the other results are very telling.

1. Turnbull is ahead 53-17 on PPM.

2.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/09/22/newspoll-51-49-to-coalition-7/

[Talleyrand]

The Turnbull surge continues!!!

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/10/05/morgan-56-44-to-coalition/

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

For some reason Morgan, after previously being much Labor than the other pollsters has flipped the other way, Md is giving results way more Liberal than the others. Odd.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

For some reason Morgan, after previously being much Labor than the other pollsters has flipped the other way, Md is giving results way more Liberal than the others. Odd.

Morgan's pro-Labor bias is exaggerated, their issue isn't exaggerating Labor's numbers, but exaggerating the current mood. They get better closer to elections, but during the regular year, they're usually off. Considering the last Abbott poll had Labor up 56-44 when everyone else had it around 53-54, the polling is starting to settle around 52 at the moment for the Coalition, maybe 53. So it is a flipping of the previous status quo, but noting the Morgan tendency to overplay the mood.

The poll was actually a topic of conversation at the sub-branch last night, most of us are realistic that we cannot win the election, but laughed ourselves stupid at the idea that we're at 27.5% primary.

[Talleyrand]

Newspoll has it at 50-50.

TPP

Liberal/National - 50% (-1)
Labor - 50% (+1)

Primary

Liberal/National - 43% (-1)
Labor - 35% (0)
Greens - 12% (+1)
Others - 10% (0)

PPM

Turnbull - 57% (+2)
Shorten - 19% (-2)

Turnbull Satisfaction

Approve - 50% (+8)
Disapprove - 25% (+1)

Shorten Satisfaction

Approve - 28% (-1)
Disapprove - 53% (-1)

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/10/11/newspoll-50-50-10/

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

It's interesting... it does reflect what the mood generally is. Turnbull is just so preferable to Abbott it's insane, Shorten pales in comparison. But... the voting intention seems to not, in any way, reflect the leadership ratings, I hear a lot of people say how much they prefer Malcolm over Bill and absolutely over Abbott but I don't see a lot of people equally say "I'm voting for them now". A lot of the numbers pre-Turnbull were unhappy moderate Liberals, they've largely come home. For the remaining unsure, Turnbull still has to translate, through policy pronouncements, that personal appreciation into votes.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

And Talley - Essential has moved in 51-49 for the Coalition from 52-48 last week...

[Talleyrand]

And Talley - Essential has moved in 51-49 for the Coalition from 52-48 last week...

I'm honestly a bit baffled as to why this is happening, as his approvals are only increasing and he seems to have done an excellent job of building authority in a way that Gillard or Rudd couldn't when they knifed a sitting PM. I assume the initial euphoria is wearing off, and the swing group you described skeptically awaiting some change.

I think we'll know December or the New Year the long-term effect of Turnbull returning; by then the removal of Abbott will be much more of a distant memory.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Personally popular PMs can't always carry their party.

[Talleyrand]

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/10/23/reachtel-53-47-to-coalition-3/

ReachTel has it at 53-47 to the Coalition, up from 50-50 last time.

Turnbull's approvals are 66-16 and Shorten's are 25-62.

Turnbull is ahead 76-14 as preferred Prime Minister...

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/10/23/reachtel-53-47-to-coalition-3/

ReachTel has it at 53-47 to the Coalition, up from 50-50 last time.

Turnbull's approvals are 66-16 and Shorten's are 25-62.

Turnbull is ahead 76-14 as preferred Prime Minister...

Let's be brutally honest here. Turnbull hasn't really had to make a difficult decision yet. It's a perfect popularity storm for him right now.

[Talleyrand]

Newspoll is out!!!

TPP

Liberal/National - 52% (+2)
Labor - 48% (-2)

Primary

Liberal/National - 45% (+2)
Labor - 35% (0)
Greens - 11% (-1)
Others - 9% (-1)

PPM

Turnbull - 63% (+6)
Shorten - 17% (-2)

Turnbull Satisfaction

Approve - 58% (+8)
Disapprove - 23% (-2)

Shorten Satisfaction

Approve - 26% (-2)
Disapprove - 58% (+5)

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/10/26/newspoll-52-48-to-coalition-7/

[Knives]

Newspoll is out!!!

TPP

Liberal/National - 52% (+2)
Labor - 48% (-2)

Primary

Liberal/National - 45% (+2)
Labor - 35% (0)
Greens - 11% (-1)
Others - 9% (-1)

PPM

Turnbull - 63% (+6)
Shorten - 17% (-2)

Turnbull Satisfaction

Approve - 58% (+8)
Disapprove - 23% (-2)

Shorten Satisfaction

Approve - 26% (-2)
Disapprove - 58% (+5)

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/10/26/newspoll-52-48-to-coalition-7/

Lol Shorten. I feel bad cos I have friends that work for him, but he's such a liability which is sad because he's been a decent leader.