Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016

[Talleyrand]

To help clear up the general election polling and stuff on the other thread, I thought we may as well start this now, since we already had one of these when Julia Gillard was Prime Minister at an earlier point in her tenure.

http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/five-reasons-why-tony-abbott-could-call-an-early-electionand-five-reasons-why-it-may-not-happen-20150626-ghyb1o.html

The election is due by January 14, 2017, but it will be held before then, most likely in 2016, but there has been speculation that Abbott may call an early election (as has almost every first-term government in the postwar era).

Nearly all recent polls have the Labor opposition 52-48 ahead in the TPP, which suggests this election is poised to be a tossup.

[Phony Moderate]

A toss-up situation would possibly be bad news for the ALP; the incumbent government usually wins toss-ups at the federal level, whereas non-toss ups/big seat swings occur when the government is defeated (see 1975, 1983, 1996, 2007 and 2013).

[Vega]

It seems as though if somehow Shorten does the right thing and resigns, ALP's chances will be sky high (or "well positioned", at least).

[BaconBacon96]

Yes, I'm starting to think Shorten is becoming a drag on the party's chances. How would Albanese or Plibersek do as leader?

[Vega]

Yes, I'm starting to think Shorten is becoming a drag on the party's chances. How would Albanese or Plibersek do as leader?

Pilbersek would prevent the party from going even further right, I guess; ditto for Albanese. However, I don't think there has been any public polling on the two.

[BaconBacon96]

http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/6206-preferred-leaders-liberal-labor-april-2015-201504260519

According to this Roy Morgan poll from April, 23% of voters prefer Plibersek as leader compared to 21% for Shorten and 13% for Albo.

[Phony Moderate]

Albo, though admirable, seems like too much of a fixer to be suitable for leader. Kind of amusing though that he and Pilbersek are seen as more electable than Shorten. None of this "we must appeal to the centre ground!!!11111" stuff down under it would seem.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Yes, I'm starting to think Shorten is becoming a drag on the party's chances. How would Albanese or Plibersek do as leader?

Pilbersek would prevent the party from going even further right, I guess; ditto for Albanese. However, I don't think there has been any public polling on the two.

Um ... the ALP has not shifted to the right since Shorten and Plibersek has actually kind of gone down in my estimations, she might not be a natural 'performer', but whenever I've seen her, she's been kind of unimpressive. I do think Shorten has a stronger policy brain than both Plib and Albo - his mistake was not capitalising on the Government's weaknesses and in essence, create a Government in exile. Just ready and waiting ... But they've gone the old route. But, let's be honest here, we have been spoilt by how bad Abbott had been.

[BaconBacon96]

My concern with Plibersek is that she'd come across as too much like Gillard.

[Knives]

lmao Sophie Mirabella won pre-selection, ing morons.

[Vega]

My concern with Plibersek is that she'd come across as too much like Gillard.

She won't, as long as the transition from Shorten to herself is well conducted. Gillard's problem all through out her tenure was that she "knifed Rudd in the back", etc. etc., and then was protrayed as power hungry and duplicitous.

Pilbersek shouldn't necessarily have that problem.

[Phony Moderate]

Which was odd as Rudd did it to Beazley, Peacock did it to Howard, Keating did it to Hawke, Abbott did it to Turnbull etc.

[Knives]

Which was odd as Rudd did it to Beazley, Peacock did it to Howard, Keating did it to Hawke, Abbott did it to Turnbull etc.

Labor has a deep fear of changing leaders with the chaos of last govt. The thought is even if Shorten opted to step down it'd still look like he was being pushed out especially because he hasn't been in for long.

[Knives]

People have started getting Liberal flyers and there's an ad out in Shorten, we're seeing an election soon.

[Talleyrand]

Newspoll has released its last ever quarterly report and it continues to show some improbable numbers.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/06/30/morgan-53-5-46-5-to-labor/

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

They more realistic than last time. The ALP is stronger in WA, QLD and VIC is much stronger and consistently so.

[Vega]

Is there any chance this will end in a hung parliament? And, if so, how are the Greens doing? ALP will need them if they are going to have a victory.

[Barnes]

There's always early election speculation in a first term especially, but I do agree it looks like there's a big chance of one soon.  If not, I'll be pretty disappointed!

Is there any chance this will end in a hung parliament? And, if so, how are the Greens doing? ALP will need them if they are going to have a victory.

At the moment, I don't think a hung parliament is likely, although that can quickly change as it did in 2010.  Of course, depending on whether or not there's a double dissolution (the only way to have a Senate election before July 2016) a Labor government will be heavily reliant on the Greens and the crossbench in the Senate.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Is there any chance this will end in a hung parliament? And, if so, how are the Greens doing? ALP will need them if they are going to have a victory.

Put it this way, I think a Coalition majority is more likely than an ALP one.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Wait, aren't they supposed to be reforming the senate to prevent wonderful mistakes like Muir?

[Barnes]

Wait, aren't they supposed to be reforming the senate to prevent wonderful mistakes like Muir?

That's the long-term goal, although no bill has yet to materialize as of yet. If Abbott wants an early election this year he can do one of two things regarding the Senate:
1. Have a House-only election and move the Senate and House elections out of sync; or
2. Have a double dissolution.

If he goes with option two (the more likely one), the Senate crossbench will most likely grow because of the lower quota.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Does he even have the trigger for a DD?

Ugh the idea of this reprobate remaining in power is pretty gross. Sorry for the editorialising, but Abbott is such a screw-up; 48% of Aussies must be on meth.

[Talleyrand]

IIRC, they have multiple triggers.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-06-18/abbott-government-given-first-double-dissolution-trigger/5532358

The biggest reason, as has been pointed out earlier, that I think an early election is unlikely, is that with a halved quota, you'd see another spate of terrible cross-bench Senators with a double dissolution.

He won't do a House-only election, and the earliest he can have a regularly scheduled House/Senate election is August 6, 2016.

Another reason, although less important, is the fact that there are ongoing redistributions in WA and NSW that won't end until early next year. If Abbott does do a DD, this is what would happen.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2014/07/double-dissolutions-and-the-redistribution-timetable.html

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Abbott won't care about the re-distributions. But he will care about the Senate, it's the only thing in my mind that might get him to hold off. But he's a politician, if he thinks he can win, he will give it a crack, for a number of reasons- his Federation White Paper process is DEAD, the economy is still stagnant and Shorten will appear at the Royal Commission on Unions as early as next month. They're going to want to bury/extend the situation for the failures and capitalize of Shorten's weaknesses. I don't think they want Parliament to return in August, but that's based on nothing but gut.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The fact that the Government is actively trying to pour cold water on the SSM cross-party Bill and with Eric Abetz saying some of the stupidest things I've heard from this Government yet... Makes me think they don't want to have a timeline for this as early as August. While I don't think minds are made up, I'm more sure that they absolutely want the option to pull the trigger sometime during the winter break (that ends on 10 August).

Remember, Australia is heading into weird times when it comes to the electoral calendar. In reality, the only periods when an election can be held without interfering with the sacred cows of footy finals is between now and late August and from mid-October until very very early December (but in reality late November) - December elections get close to Christmas holidays and people get angry.