Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

If only Labor were going to win an election with an actually decent, non-horrible leader. I can't shake the feeling that Shorten will snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

Imagine if Albanese was the ALP leader!

Yes, we would probably lose by more.

Perhaps. I shouldn't be too harsh.

Also, I have to say Australian government buildings are very humble. It's admirable in some ways.

Parliament House isn't grandiose outside, but it is inside, but just not Romanesque

It has a really unique design, which is different from most other Parliament and Legislative buildings.

Also, what is the best news channel/outlet for election coverage? ABC? I know Sky News has an affiliate in Australia.

ABC - Sky is now basically Fox News-lite

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

And a DD on 2 July is confirmed.

[Vega]

Man, Turnbull looks better than 99% of US politicians. I wonder how much his suits cost...

[morgieb]

So.....shows on.

My predictions won't be up to later (probably not until June, uni's gonna be tough for the next month, although I always say that I'll study hard but I generally don't....), my current gut feel is that the Liberals hang on, though perhaps with a minority of the vote.

All states look pretty bloody interesting....

NSW: The state with the most marginal Liberal seats...and since about 1980 (when Victoria started to trend towards Labor's direction) generally the state that determines the election. Are Labor still on the nose here, especially in Sydney? How much impact will the almaganations have? My gut suggests that Labor will get a swing in the regions but it'll be more uneven in Sydney.

Victoria: Two factors make the nature of the state tough to call - the first is Turnbull, despite being from Sydney, is the least Sydney-style Liberal leader since at least John Hewson (i.e. he'll go down better than Howard and Abbott did in a more moderate and nobelise kind of state, which Victoria kinda is), and the second is the possibility of the Greens making huge inroads here. I'll say the swing will be below average, though some might disagree.

Queensland: Where do all those Palmer voters go? Do they go to a major party or do they vote for some sh**t like Katter or Hanson? This is important, because if they do go to Labor, then Shorten will probably win the election.

South Australia: Local issues are biting hard here, though the submarine decision might help mitigate the swing. Also...Nick Xenophon. He won't as well in the Lower House than in the Upper House, but his party will still probably get around 15% in the Lower House which will help decide the majority of seats with their preferences and maybe swings a seat or two if they finish in the Top 2.

Western Australia: Not a lot of marginal seats on paper, but the swing is apparently the biggest here following the decline of the mining boom and the unpopularity of the state Liberals, and there are a number of seats on very inflated margins. If the night is tight, we could be in for a wild ride in WA...perhaps deciding the election.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

First set of polls showing

Newspoll - 51-49 ALP
Galaxy - 50-50
Ipsos - 51-49 LNP (2013 Prefs) 50-50 (respondent allocated)

Anyhoo. I agree to an extent about the swing in NSW being uneven. I think there's every reason to suspect that the ALP could lose some seats that people see as a given, but then pick up some seats on higher margins that people aren't talking about. I think the within Sydney proper, the swing might be a little underwhelming, but probably swinging one or two, but I'd be looking at Macquarie and MacArthur, basically, the far-western fringe of Sydney. The regions seem more prime for bigger swings, I feel very confident about E-M flipping back, I'd be watching Page, Gilmore and the perennial Dobell/Robertson pairing.

VIC - This state will be interesting, as you say, Turnbull is certainly more palatable to Victorian swing voters than Abbott was, however, Shorten is from Victoria, so it'll be interesting to see that dynamic. The fundamental problem is that 2013 was likely the high water-mark for the Libs Federally. The ALP margins in their safest seats got hacked away at, add to this Victoria's very few genuine marginal seats and that might suggest a status quo result, where a couple of marginals flip and the ALP recovers its margins in its own seats. The Green vote will be IMPORTANT, but I don't think it's going to be the same factor that say, NXT will be in SA. I will say that the ALP is looking at seats beyond their expected targets, such as Dunkley, which they see as vulnerable with Bilson retiring.

SA - NXT and few viable marginals. That's all. Hindmarsh could flip back to the ALP and Briggs is very very vulnerable in Mayo... I'd also see the margin in Sturt, Pyne won't lose it, but seeing him sweat will be very enjoyable.

WA - Again, few marginals but I do think the politically toxic state government is a huge drag on their vote. The ALP have hurt themselves by clearing out their entire House representation (all three of them) removing their personal votes, but all of those seats are safe, I expect they can pick up the new seat (despite a 6%+ margin) and good chances at the two marginals.

QLD - This, to me, is the big game. How this state swings, will determine the outcome. There are at least 4-6 seats in SE Queensland that are absolutely at risk, Bonner/Brisbane/Petrie/Forde are the key four, they're also worried about Longman and Dickson. If you exclude the Sunshine and Gold Coasts (too many rich old people), the ALP is feeling good about their chances in EVERY seat along the Queensland Coast.

NT - Wazza will likely restore his margin in Lingiari and Solomon will almost certainly fall.

TAS - This state is going to be quite interesting. I have this weird feeling that Lyons on a small Lib margin could hold, while Bass and Braddon could EASILY fall to the ALP, despite bigger margins.

ACT - The only thing worth watching for us, is the impact on the second Senate seat with the new OPV voting options. The Greens will need a strong primary vote and be able to keep the Libs at 32% as a maximum.

[morgieb]

First set of polls showing

Newspoll - 51-49 ALP
Galaxy - 50-50
Ipsos - 51-49 LNP (2013 Prefs) 50-50 (respondent allocated)

Anyhoo. I agree to an extent about the swing in NSW being uneven. I think there's every reason to suspect that the ALP could lose some seats that people see as a given, but then pick up some seats on higher margins that people aren't talking about. I think the within Sydney proper, the swing might be a little underwhelming, but probably swinging one or two, but I'd be looking at Macquarie and MacArthur, basically, the far-western fringe of Sydney. The regions seem more prime for bigger swings, I feel very confident about E-M flipping back, I'd be watching Page, Gilmore and the perennial Dobell/Robertson pairing.

VIC - This state will be interesting, as you say, Turnbull is certainly more palatable to Victorian swing voters than Abbott was, however, Shorten is from Victoria, so it'll be interesting to see that dynamic. The fundamental problem is that 2013 was likely the high water-mark for the Libs Federally. The ALP margins in their safest seats got hacked away at, add to this Victoria's very few genuine marginal seats and that might suggest a status quo result, where a couple of marginals flip and the ALP recovers its margins in its own seats. The Green vote will be IMPORTANT, but I don't think it's going to be the same factor that say, NXT will be in SA. I will say that the ALP is looking at seats beyond their expected targets, such as Dunkley, which they see as vulnerable with Bilson retiring.

SA - NXT and few viable marginals. That's all. Hindmarsh could flip back to the ALP and Briggs is very very vulnerable in Mayo... I'd also see the margin in Sturt, Pyne won't lose it, but seeing him sweat will be very enjoyable.

WA - Again, few marginals but I do think the politically toxic state government is a huge drag on their vote. The ALP have hurt themselves by clearing out their entire House representation (all three of them) removing their personal votes, but all of those seats are safe, I expect they can pick up the new seat (despite a 6%+ margin) and good chances at the two marginals.

QLD - This, to me, is the big game. How this state swings, will determine the outcome. There are at least 4-6 seats in SE Queensland that are absolutely at risk, Bonner/Brisbane/Petrie/Forde are the key four, they're also worried about Longman and Dickson. If you exclude the Sunshine and Gold Coasts (too many rich old people), the ALP is feeling good about their chances in EVERY seat along the Queensland Coast.

NT - Wazza will likely restore his margin in Lingiari and Solomon will almost certainly fall.

TAS - This state is going to be quite interesting. I have this weird feeling that Lyons on a small Lib margin could hold, while Bass and Braddon could EASILY fall to the ALP, despite bigger margins.

ACT - The only thing worth watching for us, is the impact on the second Senate seat with the new OPV voting options. The Greens will need a strong primary vote and be able to keep the Libs at 32% as a maximum.

Sounds like we agree with a lot

On the Green vote in Victoria, what I meant there was that there were quite a few seats where the Greens might win (Melbourne Ports, Higgins, Wills, Batman - I don't think they'll necessarily win them but it'll be interesting). Agree that the NXT will have more impact on seats in South Australia than the Greens do in Victoria, because of preferencing.

Also by EVERY seat on the Coast, I'm skeptical that Labor can pick up Hinkler, Wide Bay or Kennedy. I mean they might be tricky to call for a variety of reasons and Labor did really well in the state election there, but they're Queensland Coast seats and aren't really in play AFAIK.

On the ACT Senate, I think the new rules will make it harder for the Greens to pick up the second Senate seat. Because under the new rules they'll need to poll pretty close to the Liberals on first preference votes, and that seems unlikely AFAIC.

____________________________________

However, a poster on the Tally Room who seems have connections to the NSW Liberal Party and claims to have links to Liberal Party internals (I tend to believe him too, he's been doing it since the 2010 Federal Election, which seems to be too long to hold that kind of rouse) thinks that Labor aren't getting enough of a swing in NSW and Queensland to win.

[morgieb]

Internal seat polling, for those interested. Grains of salt are allowed.

Burt - 50/50

(for the following I have the Liberal figures first)

Eden Monaro - 46.9/53.1
Reid - 50.3/49.7
Banks - 50.9/49.1
Gilmore - 50.2/49.8
Bennelong - 51.6/48.5
Lindsay - 51.2/48.8
Hughes - 58.8/41.2
New England - 53.1/46.9 (Joyce ahead)

[morgieb]

In other news:

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/liberals-ready-to-team-with-greens-to-oust-david-feeney-from-melbourne-seat-batman/news-story/0c295fbb20011e479dc64bbf811e0963

Probably won't mean all that much in Labor's marginals unless the Greens get a huge amount of the protest vote (generally Greens preferences flow heavily to Labor regardless of whether they direct preferences or run open tickets), but it's big news for the Labor/Greens contests. Greens may well be favourites now in Wills and Batman.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I kind of consider Wide Bay the northern end of the Sunshine Coast. Hinkler is a very weird seat, it was very close in 2001 and 2007 and then blow-outs.

It's part of the reason why I think QLD will be so important will be if you don't see the swings happen in FNQ and Brisbane, then you can probably assume, regardless of what happens anywhere else, that the Government will be returned.

The seats I'm looking at in QLD.

Strong chance.
Forde (the QLD state election saw a seat that covers the main population centre swing HARD to the ALP)
Petrie
Bonner
Brisbane
Capricornia
Flynn
Longman

Worth a crack
Herbert
Leichardt
Dickson
Hinkler

In other news:

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/liberals-ready-to-team-with-greens-to-oust-david-feeney-from-melbourne-seat-batman/news-story/0c295fbb20011e479dc64bbf811e0963

Probably won't mean all that much in Labor's marginals unless the Greens get a huge amount of the protest vote (generally Greens preferences flow heavily to Labor regardless of whether they direct preferences or run open tickets), but it's big news for the Labor/Greens contests. Greens may well be favourites now in Wills and Batman.

I don't see either falling, but they'd be close.

[Knives]

Batman is really hard to predict because last election you had the double whammy of loss of incumbent and anti-Labor swing, if Feeney can improve his primary vote a few points he should be good - if not he is ed.

[Knives]

Also hearing rumblings that Dunkley is very tight.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Also hearing rumblings that Dunkley is very tight.

Dunkley is on my watchlist.

[morgieb]

Also hearing rumblings that Dunkley is very tight.

Dunkley is on my watchlist.

OOC, what is your watchlist?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

My watchlist are seats that I don't think are necessarily in play, but could be an indicator of what's going on broadly.

- Dunkley
- McEwen
- Sturt
- Adelaide
- Lingiari
- Brand
- Pearce
- Leichardt
- Hinkler
- Bennelong
- Dickson 
- Gilmore
- Franklin

[BaconBacon96]

I hear talk of McEwen being a seat that might actually swing towards the Liberals...is there any real chance of this, at all?

[Knives]

I hear talk of McEwen being a seat that might actually swing towards the Liberals...is there any real chance of this, at all?

I don't think so, 2013 they did really well on account of a very strong candidate.

If I wasn't so biased I'd think this would be the funniest election so far, like the Daily Telegraph is running  tomorrow with their front page endorsing Albo in Grayndler lmao.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Are we having an election?

Are you sure it's not Austria?

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

If only Labor were going to win an election with an actually decent, non-horrible leader. I can't shake the feeling that Shorten will snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

Imagine if Albanese was the ALP leader!

Yes, we would probably lose by more.

What makes you think that Polnut? I thought at the leadership election, Albanese was more popular with voters than Shorten.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

If only Labor were going to win an election with an actually decent, non-horrible leader. I can't shake the feeling that Shorten will snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

Imagine if Albanese was the ALP leader!

Yes, we would probably lose by more.

What makes you think that Polnut? I thought at the leadership election, Albanese was more popular with voters than Shorten.

I voted for Albo over Shorten, but in hindsight, I think Albo is our Abbott. He's too much of a party brawler and ideological warrior to be a good national leader. I think Shorten is a better shot at connecting with middle Australia than Albanese. Part of the reason why I backed  Albo at the time was I thought Government would be a two term prospect at least and we needed someone to keep Abbott's feet to the fire.

I hear talk of McEwen being a seat that might actually swing towards the Liberals...is there any real chance of this, at all?

McEwen is on my watchlist because the Libs are going to be pumping resources into it, therefore what happens there could well signal what happens elsewhere. Like in Dunkley, IF the margin holds, despite Bilson's departure, then it suggests the swing in Vic might not be enough to flip what Labor needs.

[Meclazine for Israel]

You know when you have a tough policy on illegal boat arrivals when the Syrian refugees cannot leave by boat either.

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/05/11/asia/australians-boat-syria-bound/index.html

[MaxQue]

Do the toaster thing and Turnbull being in Panama Papers is expected to have an effect on the campaign?

[Knives]

Do the toaster thing and Turnbull being in Panama Papers is expected to have an effect on the campaign?

Probably not.

If it does it just reinforces this notion that he is rich haha but I doubt it has any bearing on the campaign. Tomorrow's debate will be interesting, apparently Bill used to be a gun debate at school but idk how that works with a debate like this.

[Knives]

As expected Bill resoundingly won the debate, quite obvious he'd done many of these before.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

As expected Bill resoundingly won the debate, quite obvious he'd done many of these before.

Although the DP was convinced their panel which looked at body language and clothes, that Turnbull had the upper hand... I mean, who gives a toss about deliver or knowledge, right?

[chrisg4037]

Does anyone know if there are any blank maps of the electorates for this cycle, with the redistributions and name changes? Thank you!