Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016
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morgieb
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« Reply #275 on: June 30, 2016, 12:13:36 AM »

Lilley - tough to gauge. Seems like it should be secure on paper but there isn't much of a swing in Brisbane and Swan seems to be a bit toxic in parts of Queensland due to the Rudd-Gillard thing. Labor should still hold but the swing may be subdued. I don't get why he's still running given that his frontbench career is over....

Moreton - more interesting. Was surprised Perrett held on here in 2013, although the swing in Queensland was inconsistent. If the night is good for the LNP it may be a surprise against-the-grain gain, but I feel given a general trend towards Labor the seat shouldn't swing that much.

Griffith - Kevin Rudd's old seat. Looks secure on paper but he was a popular local MP and Labor have apparently spent money here. Notably the by-election result wasn't great for Labor, although that could be because it was a Labor MP retiring rather than a Liberal MP. Probably should be a hold but demographically it's not too bad for the LNP (despite the presence of South Brisbane/West End which is traditonally latte leftie territory) so it could surprise.

Oxley - should be an easy Labor hold, but the preselection of the new Labor MP was dodgy and it may keep the swing down. There is also a bit of gentrification further east in the seat and therefore some middle-class areas. Trouble is many in the LNP were excited about their candidate here at the last election....yet Ripoll still held easily enough.

Rankin - easy Labor hold, especially given that the sitting MP will gain a sophmore surge. The Liberal candidate may have been a former state MP, but she seems a pretty weak candidate in practice.

Blair - while this seat was once Liberal-leaning, redistributions have made this a bonafide Labor seat. Labor hold.

Fairfax - with Palmer not recontesting, this should be easily return to the LNP's hands. It almost certainly would've even if he did run again.

Kennedy - was very close at the last election, but discontent amongst rural Independents seems to be receding after the Rudd-Gillard government were voted out and the LNP's stocks in rural Queensland are declining. Katter should hold comfortably.

So 3 Labor pickups, Flynn, Petrie and Capricornia. Lots could be close, and might flip if Labor spring a surprise, but equally there's a couple of Labor seats in Queensland that have potential cold-sick potential if the Coalition do better than expected. In any case, this is the state to watch.



My Senate predictions are 5 Coalition, 4 Labor, 1 Green, Glenn Lazarus and Pauline Hanson. The majors should hit the stated quotas or go close to it pretty easily. As for the last two seats, Hanson's popularity seems to have surged a bit since heading back to Queensland and One Nation, and add a lower quota and the potential for exhausted votes meaning that she'll get a better deal with preferences, and she should be back. As for Lazarus, he has a high profile due to his previous occupation and him being a sitting Senator, and he seems to be getting a good deal with preferences. KAP and the ALA could also compete for the last seat, as might the second Green. So Queensland could be a total lottery on election night, second only to South Australia.
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Vosem
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« Reply #276 on: June 30, 2016, 01:03:53 PM »

My predictions were horribly, terribly off in 2013 and are likely to be so again, but here goes nothing:

Queensland:
HoR: Fairfax from PUP to LNP; Capricornia, Forde from LNP to ALP. Total: LNP 21 (-1), ALP 8 (+2), KAP 1 (-), PUP 0 (-1).
Senate: 5 LNP (-1), 4 ALP (-), 1 Greens (-), 1 ON (+1), 1 GLT (-).

New South Wales:
HoR: Werriwa from ALP to Coalition; Paterson, Barton, Dobell, Page, Robertson, Eden-Monaro, Macarthur from Coalition to ALP; Cowper from Coalition to independent. Total: ALP 23 (+5), Coalition 23 (-7), Independent (Oakeshott) 1 (+1).
Senate: 5 Coalition (-1), 4 ALP (-), 2 Greens (+1), 1 LDP (-).

Victoria:
HoR: Murray from Libs to Nats; Batman from ALP to Greens; Chisholm, Bruce from ALP to Coalition. Total: Coalition 18 (+2), ALP 16 (-3), Greens 2 (+1), Independent (McGowan) 1 (-).
Senate: 4 Coalition (-1), 4 ALP (-), 2 Greens (-), 1 NXT (+1), 1 Derryn Hinch (+1), 0 John Madigan (-1), 0 Ricky Muir (-1).

Tasmania:
HoR: No change. Coalition 3 (-), ALP 1 (-), Independent (Wilkie) 1 (-).
Senate: 4 Coalition (-), 4 ALP (-1), 2 Greens (-), 2 JLN (+1).

South Australia:
HoR: Mayo, Barker, Grey from Coalition to NXT; Adelaide from ALP to Coalition. Coalition 4 (-2), ALP 4 (-1), NXT 3 (+3).
Senate: 3 Coalition (-2), 3 ALP (-), 3 NXT (+2), 2 Greens (-), 1 FF (-).

Western Australia:
HoR: Burt, Cowan from Coalition to ALP. Coalition 11 (-1), ALP 5 (+2).
Senate: 5 Liberal (-1), 4 ALP (+1), 2 Greens (-), 1 National (+1), 0 PUP (-1).

Territories:
HoR: Solomon from Coalition to ALP. ALP 4 (+1), Coalition 0 (-1).
Senate: 2 Coalition (-), 2 ALP (-).

HoR total:
Coalition (Malcolm Turnbull) 80 (-10)
Labor (Bill Shorten) 61 (+6)
Nick Xenophon Team (Nick Xenophon) 3 (+3)
Greens (Richard DiNatale) 2 (+1)
Katter's Australian Party (Bob Katter) 1 (-)
Palmer United Party (Zhenya Wang) 0 (-1)
Independents 3 (Rob Oakeshott, Cathy McGowan, Andrew Wilkie)

Senate total:
Coalition (Malcolm Turnbull) 29 (-4)
Labor (Bill Shorten) 25 (-)
Greens (Richard DiNatale) 11 (+1)
Nick Xenophon Team (Nick Xenophon) 4 (+3)
Jacqui Lambie Network (Jacqui Lambie) 2 (+1)
Liberal Democratic Party (David Leyonhjelm) 1 (-)
Family First Party (Bob Day) 1 (-)
One Nation Party (Pauline Hanson) 1 (+1)
Glenn Lazarus Team (Glenn Lazarus) 1 (-)
Justice Party (Derryn Hinch) 1 (+1)
Palmer United Party (Zhenya Wang) 0 (-1)
Manufacturing and Farming Party (John Madigan) 0 (-1)
Motoring Enthusiasts Party (Ricky Muir) 0 (-1)
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Knives
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« Reply #277 on: June 30, 2016, 09:13:47 PM »

Having met Julia Banks, I really don't see her winning Chisholm as much as the Liberals talk it up haha
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #278 on: June 30, 2016, 10:24:45 PM »
« Edited: July 01, 2016, 07:53:29 AM by Fmr President & Senator Polnut »

Another think... I do think the capacity for an upset is still there, but the momentum in the last 3-4 days has absolutely shifted in the Government's favour. Labor might have answered question one well, the problems with Turnbull and his policies, BUT they just didn't demonstrate to middle Australia a strong enough case that they'd be better.

I'll do a final, final prediction tomorrow afternoon, around 4-5pm.

But I'll try a seat by seat estimation of changes.

NSW.

ALP -> LNP 0 (but watch for Parramatta and Kingsford Smith)
LNP -> ALP - Eden-Monaro, Page, Barton, Dobell, Paterson (already notionally Labor), Macarthur, Macquarie (7, but net of 4)
LNP -> IND - Cowper (1) New England will be VERY close, but I think if Joyce's primary vote is 45%+ he'll be OK.

That's a net loss of 5 for the LNP in NSW, including post-redistribution

QLD

ALP -> LNP - 0 but watch for Moreton
LNP -> ALP - Petrie, Capricornia, Forde(3) - but Brisbane and Bonner could ABSOLUTELY happen
PUP -> LNP - Fairfax

Net loss of 2 for the LNP in QLD

VIC

ALP -> LNP - 0 but watch for Bruce
LNP -> ALP - 0 but Deakin is a chance
ALP -> GRN - Batman (but I really think this will be one of the closest races in VIC. If Feeney's primary vote remains in first and is around 36-38% he should get home.
LIB -> GRN - Watch Higgins... I think it's going to be close.

Net loss of 1 for the ALP in VIC

TAS - this state makes so little sense to me... none.

ALP -> LNP 0
LNP -> ALP - Braddon (but a really strong chance for Lyons) 1

Net gain of 1 for the ALP in TAS

SA

ALP -> LNP - 0 (Adelaide will be close-ish)
LNP -> ALP - Hindmarsh 1  (off the back of NXT preferences)
LNP -> NXT - Mayo, Barker 2 (watch for Grey)

Net loss of 3 for the LNP in SA

NT

ALP -> LNP - 0
LNP -> ALP - Solomon 1

Net loss of 1 for the LNP in NT

WA

ALP -> LNP - 0
LNP -> ALP - Burt, Cowan (good shot at Husluck and watch for Pearce) 2

Net loss of 2 for the LNP in NT
 

So, based off the new Parliament numbers
LNP 88 -> 74
ALP 57 -> 68
GRN 1 -> 2
Cross-bench 4 -> 6 (-Palmer + Oakeshott and 2 x NXT)

Hung Parliament
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Knives
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« Reply #279 on: June 30, 2016, 10:40:43 PM »

In that hung parliament, I see Turnbull easily getting across the line however.
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morgieb
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« Reply #280 on: June 30, 2016, 10:45:30 PM »

In that hung parliament, I see Turnbull easily getting across the line however.
Yeah. But a hung parliament with Turnbull in charge might be even better for Labor than Labor winning IMO. Would basically guarantee Labor win in 2019 and the Liberals economic advantage will IMO deteriorate.
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International Brotherhood of Bernard
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« Reply #281 on: June 30, 2016, 11:59:39 PM »

What are the odds we see a 2015 QLD redux here, where most polls were tied or gave a narrow LNP edge and most everyone expected the LNP to pull it out despite their absolutely toxic term in office but in the end Labor managed to squeak ahead b/c of stronger-than-anticipated preference flows? Or have the polling issues from that election been resolved?
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #282 on: July 01, 2016, 12:45:45 AM »

What are the odds we see a 2015 QLD redux here, where most polls were tied or gave a narrow LNP edge and most everyone expected the LNP to pull it out despite their absolutely toxic term in office but in the end Labor managed to squeak ahead b/c of stronger-than-anticipated preference flows? Or have the polling issues from that election been resolved?

That's because QLD had optional preferential, and unless you were voting Labor first preference, you weren't really voting for them, even Green preferences only flowed 60% to them.

This is different, BUT I do think preference flows will be a big factor here because the mix of 'others' will be different this time and respondent allocated polling is better for the ALP than the 2013 flows. So it has to be considered as an important variable.
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #283 on: July 01, 2016, 12:58:15 AM »
« Edited: July 01, 2016, 02:14:29 PM by Ser Fubart of House Solman »

Here's a mostly ignorant American's predictions:

Coalition: 76
Labor: 68
Greens: 2
Xenophon: 1
Others: 3

Bare majority for the Coalition.

God Save the Queen and God help anyone trying to do Senate predictions.

These are based off the Poll Bludger, this thread, and nothing else. I look forward to watching the results. When do they start coming in?

Polls close at 6 according to the Sydney Morning Herald. Assuming it's AEST, that means 1 AM Pacific Daylight Time for me. Bleh. I'll probably try to get up early at hope that there's still a lot coming in at 6 or 7 AM my time.

Side note: During DST, is South Australia actually a half hour ahead of Queensland?

Edit 2:

TPP

Coalition: 50.7%
Labor: 49.3%
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #284 on: July 01, 2016, 01:12:01 AM »

The decision will likely be clear by 6am your time. I expect we'll have a clear idea once a decent whack of the WA vote is in, so 10-10:30pm EST.

QLD doesn't observe daylight savings.
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Lachi
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« Reply #285 on: July 01, 2016, 02:08:52 AM »

New Prediction:
(Assuming uniform swing, which is highly unlikely)

HUNG PARLIAMENT, LNP with plurality

ALP: 70
LNP: 74
GRN: 2
OTH: 4

GAINS:
ALP:
Macarthur
Reid
Deakin
Page
Robertson
Lindsay
Eden-Monaro
Banks
Brandon
Hindmarsh
Solomon
Lyons
Capricornia
Petrie
(Bonner, Gilmore, Corangamite, La Trobe, and Bass all on a knife edge, bonner being won by the LNP by 0.09%)

Others:
Greens (Batman)
NXT (Mayo)
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morgieb
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« Reply #286 on: July 01, 2016, 05:01:02 AM »
« Edited: July 01, 2016, 05:13:38 AM by morgieb »

WA

Curtin - Julie Bishop's seat. This is like the North Shore of Sydney, except in West Perth. The only interest here is if Labor finish 2nd or the Greens do.

Forrest - despite Bunbury being reasonably large, it still leans Liberal...and that's not even talking about the rual areas. Add that Labor-voting Collie was redistributed out of the seat and this is safe Liberal. Might see a swing like most of WA given the slowing economy here, though.

Tangney - like Curtin, although this is south of the river. Jensen may be recontesting as an Independent but he'll do jack sh**t because he was deselected and seemingly has little profile in this electorate. Safe Liberal hold.

Moore - although Goodenough is seen as a bit of dud here, this is still a solidly Liberal area. Won't be interesting.

Canning - this would've been interesting under the old boundaries given the death of Don Randall, a general swing in WA and this seat being traditionally vulnerable, but despite the redistribution cutting the margin here, in practice the current boundaries are far safer for the Liberals here. Could see a large swing but the Liberals should hold.

Pearce - one to watch, given the swing in WA and the margin being under 10%. But Labor didn't pick this up even at their peak in WA and Porter can expect a sophmore surge. Liberals will hold but I think this will be in marginal territory.

Stirling - should've been competitive given Labor held this in the Howard years, but Labor took too long to select a candidate, suggesting they aren't taking this seriously. Liberals will hold, then.

Swan - will be tight, Labor are improving in WA and this has been held by Labor in the recent past. Ultimately I think the Liberals will hold through incumbency, but it'll be close.

Burt - might not be on the first list of marginals, but there isn't a sitting MP here, a general swing to Labor in WA, and at the state level the area is pretty good for Labor without Don Randall's personal vote. Labor's most likely pickup in WA and I say they pick this up.

Hasluck - a marginal seat in WA that's made safer by the redistribution but looks more marginal given the general swing in WA. Again I think incumbency might be enough for Wyatt to hold here, especially given the swing is less vicious than in WA.

Cowan - with the redistribution this is now Liberal's most marginal seat in WA. With a swing back to Labor this will be very tough to hold, but Simpkins despite his gaffes seems to be popular in this division and Aly while being a strong candidate might have a profile that proves a liability in this outer surburban division. I'll still predict a Labor hold but neither result will surprise.

Durack - while the area has been pretty good for the WA Nationals at the local level, this wasn't that close in 2013 and Labor are directing preferences to the Liberals. Add that Labor could easily finish 2nd here given that Labor are getting a swing in WA, the fact that Labor have a solid candidate (on paper) here, and a declining economy over in WA and rural areas (giving Labor a swing), and the Liberals should hold because Labor finish second.

O'Connor - tricky. While it was close in 2013 in terms of the 2PP, the gap between the Liberal and the WA National was reasonably large. Given a sophmore surge for the sitting MP and Labor directing preferences towards the Liberal rather than the Nationals, the Liberals should hold.

Perth - should be a Labor hold given that the swing in WA for Labor is above average, but a retiring MP could keep the swing down.

Brand - see Perth.

Fremantle - preselection dramas could see some movement towards the Greens here, but 1. the Liberal vote here is too strong and 2. much of the seat in the south of the seat is pretty bad for the Greens. Also the new Labor candidate won the preselection here but was vetoed by head office. So Labor hold.

Labor pickup Burt and Cowan, then. Depending on the night I think Labor could gain 1-5 seats here though depending on how vicious the swing is. One to watch, especially if the early results are close.

Senate predictions are 5 Liberal, 4 Labor, 2 Greens and 1 National. IMO this state is the most predictable in this result, only real question is if the Liberals pick up 5 or 6 seats here (they'll probably pick up the last seat off the Nationals given a swing to Labor here).
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morgieb
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« Reply #287 on: July 01, 2016, 07:01:37 AM »

South Australia

Barker - the main story in South Australia is the NXT and how well they do. Personally if Xenophon's off the ballot they'll slide, but I still see them polling 15-20% in the HOR. As it stands they could be anywhere between picking up 1 seat at best or making South Australia a proper 3-party state. Also preferences will be interesting because of the split ticket thing - I wonder if Labor and the Liberals hand out HTV's preferencing each other rather than the NXT. As for Barker, it looks safe but Labor's vote is low enough that the NXT should ambush here. I'll predict a Liberal hold but it's probably the NXT's 3rd best chance of picking up a seat.

Grey - interesting. On paper I think Labor's core vote in places like Whyalla and Port Augusta is a bit too rusted on to swing, and the rural territory that squashes the votes in those places is too strong. And the NXT's vote in rural areas looks weaker than what it is in Adelaide. Yet polls show them competitive here. I think the Liberals still win, but an upset is possible. Wonder also what swing Labor get on a 2PP basis if the NXT are polling well here.....

Mayo - a safe Liberal seat on paper, but this was one of the best Democrat areas when they were relevant, and it's safe to assume that the old Democrats strength will convert to NXT strength. Add that Jamie Briggs has been scandal-prone, and I'm calling this an NXT gain.

Sturt - I'd love to see Pyne lose. I think most people would. But all signs point to him holding up well in his district. If the NXT finished 2nd it could get interesting especially given that I struggle to see him getting a lot of preferences, but I think he'll be OK.

Boothby - tricky. On paper this looks fertile for the NXT - it's an open seat and a fairly middle-class one where Xenophon should have some appeal. But do they get enough where Labor and Liberal are likely to poll OK? I'm not so sure so I'll stick with a Liberal hold. Nevertheless, this is the NXT's second best chance at a seat and if they poll above average I think they pick this up.

Hindmarsh - tough to gauge. Looks good for the NXT on the surface, but it's probably too marginal on a Labor/Liberal basis than what the NXT would hope for. But even as a Labor/Liberal contest it looks interesting. Very close, but I think the Liberals may just have the edge here as Labor apparently aren't doing so great in SA.

Wakefield - a Labor seat that looks even safer in practice than what it is on paper due to large swathes of rural territory being mixed in with Labor voting areas. For this reason I don't see the NXT having a huge impact here.

Adelaide - this however looks more interesting, there is some talk that Labor are struggling here. I don't quite believe it but Labor's vote held up here pretty well in 2013, Turnbull may more appeal in urban areas than Abbott did and the NXT factor could make it interesting...

Makin - although a marginal seat in theory, Zappia has made this look secure. Maybe NXT has appeal here but I suspect the core Liberal vote might be a bit too high.

Kingston - essentially read what I wrote with Makin. Kingston is even safer though, so it makes it more possible for the NXT to take second and make it interesting. Labor should still hold.

Port Adelaide - very safe for Labor. It's not a great area for the NXT so while they may finish 2nd I doubt unless it's a very good night for them they'll endanger Labor's hold here.

So the NXT pick up Mayo. Could pick up a lot more but I'm not convinced they will, given there are signs that the tide is receding a bit.



Senate predictions are 4 Labor, 4 Liberal, 3 NXT and 1 Green. Tough. Labor, Liberal and the NXT should all hit 3 quotas. Greens should also get a quota. I'll say Labor and Liberal have slightly higher votes than the NXT so they gain the 4th quotas, but it will be interesting. Family First probably not without a shot either.
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morgieb
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« Reply #288 on: July 01, 2016, 07:27:46 AM »

Other states

Bass - interesting. Always a competitive seat, but incumbency will help the Liberals and Nikolic has done more to get his name out there than the other two Tassie Liberal incumbents. Labor's vote also doesn't appear to have quite returned to 2007/10 levels. So I'll say the Liberals hold.

Braddon - this along with Lyons show the difference between Tasmania and the mainland - you'd expect the Coalition to win seats like these on the mainland but in Tasmania they still (sometimes anyway) have stuck with their working-class roots. It's tough to call but given that Labor will not have Sidebottom's personal vote (important in a regional district) I'll predict a Liberal hold.

Solomon - it's usually close, but the misadventures of the CLP state government can't help the CLP here. Labor should pick it up with a big swing.

Lyons - see Braddon, but this seat is a bit more marginal and was traditionally Labor-leaning before 2013. Accordingly I think Labor re-gain the seat.

Lingiari - Labor have struggled here by their usual standards in the last two elections in part due to Abbott's appeal with the Aboriginal population and Labor issues in said areas. This time around with the CLP tanking, Labor should get a big swing here.

Franklin - if Labor didn't lose this in 2013 (although this seat behaves a bit different to the rest of Tasmania), they won't lose it in this election.

Canberra - the less safe bit of Canberra as this goes into more marginal suburbia around Tuggeranong, but it's still safe Labor

Fenner - the new name for Fraser, and is as safe for Labor as the old seat.

Denison - Wilkie should be secure here for as long as he wants.

So 1 gain for Labor in Tasmania (Lyons) and one in the Northern Territory (Solomon).



In Tasmania, I'll predict 5 Liberal, 4 Labor, 2 Greens and 1 Lambie. Jacqui Lambie should clear a quota and there is talk that she'll also have enough to get her running mate up. That I doubt, however. Labor and Liberal should clear 4 quotas and the Greens should clear 2. Last seat will probably go to the Liberals as I suspect they'll be closer to a 5th quota than Labor, given Labor's vote in Tasmania hasn't quite recovered to their peak.

The Territories should be boring - 1 Labor and 1 Liberal/CLP for both. There is a bit of talk about the Greens challenging the Liberals in the ACT, but they couldn't do it under the old Senate system and the new one makes it harder for them to win enough preferences to overtake the Liberal. The major parties in the Northern Territory will pretty much always clear a quota.
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morgieb
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« Reply #289 on: July 01, 2016, 07:43:55 AM »

So TL;DR - seat predictions and the like:

Coalition - 78 (-10 - gain Fairfax, lose Eden-Monaro, Page, Macarthur, Petrie, Capricornia, Flynn, Cowan, Burt, Solomon, Lyons, Mayo)
Labor - 67 (+10 - gain Eden-Monaro, Page, Macarthur, Petrie, Capricornia, Flynn, Cowan, Burt, Solomon, Lyons)
Greens - 1 (n/c)
Others - 4 (n/c - NXT gain Mayo, PUP lose Fairfax)

TPP:

Coalition - 50.4%
Labor - 49.6%

So narrow Coalition majority. Though I wouldn't be surprised with a whole range of results from the Coalition getting a similar result to 2013 and Labor getting a surprise majority.

Senate:

Coalition - 31
Labor - 27
Greens - 9
Nick Xenophon Team - 3
Jacqui Lambie - 1
Derryn Hinch - 1
Liberal Democrats - 1
Glenn Lazarus - 1
One Nation - 1
WA Nationals - 1
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Talleyrand
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« Reply #290 on: July 01, 2016, 12:26:49 PM »

TPP:

Coalition- 51.2%
ALP- 48.8%

Seats:

Coalition - 83 (gain Fairfax, lose Barton, Paterson, E-M, Page, Solomon, Burt, Capricornia, Lyons)
ALP- 63 (gain Barton, Paterson, E-M, Page, Solomon, Burt, Capricornia, Lyons)
Green- 1
Others- 3 (lose Fairfax)

Not going to take a stab at the Senate, although I think Hanson won't get in.
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #291 on: July 01, 2016, 12:56:44 PM »

Final polls seem to be showing a very small, very subtle swing to the Coalition...
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Ebowed
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« Reply #292 on: July 01, 2016, 06:42:20 PM »

Questions for my fellow Australians. Taking off your psephological/analytical hat am I the only one who still thinks something feels 'off' about the conventional wisdom about this one? I don't think for a second that Turnbull is acting or messaging like someone who has this won.

It's not just you.  On Tuesday they trotted out Morrison to announce their third crackdown on 'welfare fraud' in 12 months.  Yesterday they dragged out Dutton to draw the link between refugees and terrorism.  And the week was largely spent discussing the issue of Whether Or Not Malcolm Turnbull Will Destroy Medicare, which is a bad sign for the Liberals.

They look and sound desperate.

The problem is that the numbers just don't seem to be there, that the footing the Coalition have is just too good, and I think that's a real tragedy.

It's clear, though, that Malcolm Turnbull, were he leading from opposition against a halfway relatively competent and especially articulate (or even just able to string a sentence together) leader, would not be a very formidable force.  Malcolm Turnbull on the campaign trail has proved to be highly awkward, very unlikable and an enormous grandstander who really doesn't think very highly of the Australian people.

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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #293 on: July 01, 2016, 10:24:10 PM »
« Edited: July 01, 2016, 10:35:05 PM by #TheShadowyAbyss »

Anyone know where I can watch results come in if I wanted to?

Also, reports that Turnbull has gone rogue.
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Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends
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« Reply #294 on: July 01, 2016, 10:36:07 PM »

Prediction time! I'll organise by state/territory:

New South Wales

House
Banks - With the Georges River suburbs now safeish-safe Liberal, longtime member Daryl Melham gone, and David Coleman an established MP, Banks should stay Liberal in 2016.
Barton - With the redistribution taking away the better Liberal territory around Sandringham and Ramsgate, and into better Labor territory around Marrickville, this will be easily re-gained (notionally held) by Labor. Varvaris would have found it difficult to hold on the old boundaries.
Bennelong - John Howard's old seat, Liberal hold, unless Labor win in a landslide.
Berowra - The most interesting thing to watch here on election night is how much of a personal vote Philip Ruddock will take with him after 43 years.
Blaxland - Easy Labor hold.
Bradfield - Easy Liberal hold.
Calare - Easy National hold, although the likes of Lithgow/Bathurst may swing back to Labor significantly, given John Cobb's retirement.
Chifley - Easy Labor hold.
Cook - Treasurer Scott Morrison will be returned easily.
Cowper - Oakeshott will give Luke Hartsuyker a fright, but Hartsuyker should squeak back in.
Cunningham - Easy Labor hold.
Dobell - With the Craig Thomson saga in the history books, plus with the redistribution and corruption amongst former state MLAs for the area, Labor are slightly favoured to gain (notionally win) this. Incumbent MP Fiona McNamara should limit the swing though.
Eden-Monaro - Voting with the nation since 1972, Eden-Monaro almost broke its track record last election. Mike Kelly, Labor MP 2007-13, is running again, while incumbent Liberal MP Peter Hendy's margin was boosted over 2% in the redistribution. I think Eden-Monaro will break its bellwether record, and go back to Labor.
Farrer - Easy Liberal hold.
Fowler - Easy Labor hold.
Gilmore - One of the few seats in the nation to swing TO Labor in 2013, the Liberals should hold on, barring a Labor landslide.
Grayndler - Labor hold, unless the Greens surge in this inner-western Sydney progressive hotspot. Albanese's profile should ensure he's home safe here.
Greenway - The margin from 2013 is representative of the poor campaign of Liberal candidate Jaymes Diaz - Greenway swung over 2% to Labor. Perhaps the only seat the Liberals will gain in Sydney in 2016. Every election has upsets, and I'm going for an upset Liberal gain here, although this WILL be tight.
Hughes - Liberal hold, Hughes' demographics have become very Liberal family since Howard's 1996 victory.
Hume - Easy Liberal hold.
Hunter - Labor hold.
Kingsford Smith - Labor hold, although one to watch over the years, as the area is gentrifying and getting better for the Liberals.
Lindsay - Like Robertson, Penrith-based Lindsay has voted with Australia as a whole since 1984. Likely Liberal hold, considering the government will likely be returned.
Lyne - Easy National hold, particularly with the Rob Oakeshott saga well and truly in the past.
Macarthur - Russell Matheson's margin has been slashed in the redistribution, by removing Camden and adding areas north of Campbelltown, and will have to work hard to hold Macarthur. This will be a hot contest on the new boundaries, will Matheson be able to do what his predecessors John Fahey and Pat Farmer did, and win after an unfavourable redistribution? This will be competitive, but ultimately, I think Labor will squeak in here.
Mackellar - New Liberal candidate Jason Falinski will easily win.
Macquarie - If Labor win this, they'll most likely win government. Narrow hold for Louise Markus.
McMahon - Labor hold, although the area is not rock-solid for Labor anymore, as the last two state elections displayed.
Mitchell - Easy Liberal hold.
New England - With Tony Windsor, kingmaker in making Julia Gillard Prime Minister in 2010, coming back to try and win his old seat, Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce has a challenge on his hands... National hold ultimately.
Newcastle - Easy Labor hold.
North Sydney - Easy Liberal hold.
Page - Has gone with the nation since 1990, although the area trended away from the Nationals at the state level last state election. I expect former Labor MP Janelle Saffin to win back Page.
Parkes - Easy National hold.
Parramatta - Likely Labor hold.
Paterson - Likely Labor gain (notional hold), following the radical redistribution wiping out retiring MP Bob Baldwin's margin. On these boundaries, Paterson should be a Labor seat except for landslides.
Reid - The outer inner-west of Sydney (particularly areas on the river like Drummoyne and Concord) has been trending Liberal, and combined with Craig Laundy's strong performance as an MP, and areas around Auburn being removed in the redistribution, the Liberals are favoured in a tight contest.
Richmond - Likely Labor hold, next time the Coalition wins Richmond, the Liberals could be the larger conservative party in the area, given the growth of Tweed Heads.
Riverina - Easy National hold.
Robertson - Key contest, and like Lindsay, is a bellwether that has gone with the nation since 1984. At this point in time, I expect Robertson to stay blue.
Shortland - Easy Labor hold for Pat Conroy, member for the abolished seat of Charlton since 2013.
Sydney - Easy Labor hold.
Warringah - Former Prime Minister Tony Abbott will easily win again.
Watson - Labor hold.
Wentworth - Easy Liberal hold, particularly now the MP for Wentworth, Malcolm Turnbull, is Prime Minister. Expect a swing away from the Liberals though.
Werriwa - Labor hold.
Whitlam - Labor hold.

SUMMARY:
ALP gain from LIB: Barton*, Dobell*, Eden-Monaro, Macarthur, Paterson* (* indicates Labor notional hold/win)
LIB gain from ALP: Greenway
ALP gain from NAT: Page
Net gain/loss: ALP +5

Senate (WARNING: Expect my Senate predictions to be somewhat off, I haven't been following the Senate as closely as the house).
LIB/NAT - 5
ALP - 5
GRN - 1
LDP - 1
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« Reply #295 on: July 01, 2016, 10:36:51 PM »

Victoria

House
Aston - Liberal hold.
Ballarat - Labor hold.
Batman - Possible Green gain, although the Liberals are preferencing Labor, David Feeney has made quite the fool of himself.
Bendigo - Likely Labor hold.
Bruce - Likely Labor hold, although Alan Griffin's retirement has created an opening. This being said, the Liberals would have to work hard against the trend to gain Bruce.
Calwell - Easy Labor hold.
Casey - Easy Liberal hold.
Chisholm - Anna Burke's retirement has made an opportunity for the Liberals to get this marginal back. On state figures, this would be a marginal Liberal seat, although the trend is in Labor's favour nationwide. While the Liberal focus is on retaining Dunkley, La Trobe, Deakin and Corangamite, I think the Liberals will pull off an upset win here. Expect Chisholm to be a key target in future elections, particularly if the boundaries become more Liberal-friendly.
Corangamite - Likely Liberal hold.
Corio - Labor hold.
Deakin - Likely Liberal hold, Deakin is prone to small swings, and now contains the Ringwood area, making it better for the Liberals.
Dunkley - Likely Liberal hold, although Billson's retirement has made this more competitive than usual.
Flinders - Easy Liberal hold.
Gellibrand - Easy Labor hold.
Gippsland - Easy National hold.
Goldstein - Easy Liberal hold.
Gorton - Easy Labor hold.
Higgins - Liberal hold, while some booths around Prahran are good for the Greens, the Toorak, Malvern and Armadale blue-ribbon areas will ensure a comfortable victory for O'Dwyer.
Holt - Labor hold.
Hotham - Labor hold.
Indi - Independents tend to do better on their second election, and with Sophie Mirrabella back as Liberal candidate, Cathy McGowan should hold.
Isaacs - Labor hold, although the bayside suburbs are trending Liberal.
Jagajaga - Labor hold.
Kooyong - Easy Liberal hold.
La Trobe - Liberals favoured, Wood has lost the seat before, but won it back in 2013, and could lose again. One I'll be watching closely.
Lalor - Easy Labor hold.
Mallee - The safest seat anywhere in Australia, the Nationals will win easily.
Maribyrnong - Opposition Leader Bill Shorten will win easily.
McEwen - Likely Labor hold, given their incumbency and the large Liberal swing last time.
McMillan - Easy Liberal hold.
Melbourne - Green hold.
Melbourne Ports - Labor hold, and will be for as long as Michael Danby is member, keeping the Caulfield area 10% safer for Labor than at the state level. However, the seat is trending to both the Liberals and Greens alike.
Menzies - Easy Liberal hold.
Murray - With Sharman Stone retiring after 20 years, Murray is a wide open contest between the Liberals and Nationals. A close race will be expected, if I had to pick, I'd go for National Damian Drum, ex-AFL coach and incumbent member of the Victorian Legislative Council.
Scullin - Easy Labor hold.
Wannon - Easy Liberal hold, and expect this or Murray to be re-named Fraser next redistribution.
Wills - Likely Labor hold, with the main question here being how much the Greens gnaw off Labor's margin. The Liberals are preferencing Labor in this inner-city leftist hotspot.

SUMMARY:
LIB gain from ALP: Chisholm
GRN gain from ALP : Batman
NAT gain from LIB: Murray
Net gain/loss: ALP -2

Senate
LIB/NAT: 5
ALP: 4
GRN: 2
Derryn Hinch: 1 (my way-off prediction)
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« Reply #296 on: July 01, 2016, 11:10:24 PM »

Queensland

House
Blair - Labor hold, although Teresa Harding may get a swing back to the LNP.
Bonner - Likely LNP hold, unless the tide is truly in Labor's direction.
Bowman - LNP hold, Andrew Laming has done the hard yards here.
Brisbane - As long as the Ascot/Clayfield area is in Brisbane, it will be a competitive seat, the trends in other areas in Brisbane are also helping the LNP. With Teresa Gambaro retiring, this will be a key contest between the LNP and Labor candidates. Based on current polling and the government's current situation, narrow LNP hold.
Capricornia - Likely Labor gain, Capricornia may be trending LNP, but only leaves Labor's grasp in landslides like 1975, 1996 and 2013. The Coalition lost Capricornia in 1977 and 1998 respectively. Wouldn't be shocked if Landry holds in an upset though.
Dawson - George Christensen, one of the LNP's firebrand MPs (has a few Geert Wilders-esque traits), will likely hold, unless Labor are going for a big nationwide win.
Dickson - Likely LNP hold.
Fadden - Easy LNP hold.
Fairfax - Perhaps the most certain result in 2016 - the LNP will easily win this Sunshine Coast seat, and would even if Clive Palmer wasn't retiring.
Fisher - LNP hold, even with soon to be ex-MP Mal Brough caught in a scandal.
Flynn - Possible LNP hold, watch the Katter/Lazarus vote here.
Forde - Held by the government of the day since 1987 (2010 aside), Forde has a tendency to swing big, had a massive PUP vote in 2013, plus former Premier Peter Beattie was the Labor candidate in 2013. A true nailbiter, going for a narrow LNP hold.
Griffith - Labor hold.
Groom - Easy LNP hold.
Herbert - Likely LNP hold, expect Katter's Australian Party to do well.
Hinkler - Likely LNP hold.
Kennedy - Bob Katter will be easily re-elected, particularly with the LNP tide receding.
Leichhardt - Warren Entsch is a popular MP, and should be re-elected.
Lilley - Labor hold, Lilley only goes LNP in landslides.
Longman - Wyatt Roy should hold, although expect the margin to be close here
Maranoa - Easy LNP hold.
McPherson - Easy LNP hold.
Moncrieff - Easy LNP hold.
Moreton - Graham Perrett is clearly a popular MP, getting a swing to him in 2013, and should hold on again. The north of the seat in particular is becoming stronger for the LNP though, and Moreton will remain a key marginal for years to come.
Oxley - Labor hold, although not safe for them, particularly with areas like Forest Lake and Mount Ommaney.
Petrie - Can't see Luke Holwarth holding with such a low margin, Petrie's bellwether streak will likely end in 2016.
Rankin - Labor hold.
Ryan - Easy LNP hold.
Wide Bay - Easy LNP hold.
Wright - LNP hold.

SUMMARY
ALP gain from LNP : Capricornia, Petrie
LNP gain from PUP: Fairfax
Net gain/loss: ALP +2

Senate
LNP: 5
ALP: 5
GRN: 1
GLT (Glenn Lazarus Team): 1

Western Australia

House
Brand - Labor hold, expect a decent swing here.
Burt - Labor candidate Matt Keogh should get a decent swing, particularly in the Armadale/Kelmscott area, where Don Randall's personal vote has sadly disappeared. This should be a gain for Labor, as traditional voting patterns in the east of the seat return, and the swingy west moves away from the Liberals.
Canning - Liberal hold, particularly with the removal of the Armadale area. With popular MP Don Randall sadly no longer with us, expect a big swing back to Labor.
Cowan - Luke Simpkins has had some of his best booths (Kingsley/Woodvale) exchanged for solid Labor territory in and around Beechboro. Perhaps the biggest fight Simpkins has faced since he first won Cowan in 2007, Simpkins is up against Anne Aly, university lecturer. Simpkins appears to have more of a ground game than Aly, although with the projected swing in WA, this has a good chance of falling. Labor gain, possibly narrowly.
Curtin - Easy Liberal hold.
Durack - Liberal hold, considering the late announcement of a National candidate.
Forrest - Easy Liberal hold.
Fremantle - Labor hold.
Hasluck - The hills areas just might save Ken Wyatt, who is favoured in a tight contest.
Moore - Easy Liberal hold.
O'Connor - Likely Liberal hold.
Pearce - Easy Liberal hold.
Perth - Labor hold, although on these boundaries, one to watch next Liberal landslide. The Liberals' Jeremy Quinn is very visible here.
Stirling - Liberal hold, unless the Liberal tide is truly leaving WA.
Swan - Not as safe as it looks, expect Labor to win back more of the eastern booths (the Belmont/Cannington area) in this seat. Will be a nailbiter to the bitter end, Irons will probably sneak back in from his incumbency.
Tangney - Easy Liberal hold, Jensen's preferences will flow strongly back to the Liberals, and I can't see him polling enough to win ala Allan Rocher or Paul Filing in 1996.

SUMMARY
ALP gain from LIB: Burt, Cowan
Net gain/loss: ALP + 2

Senate
LIB: 5
ALP: 5
GRN: 1
NAT: 1
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« Reply #297 on: July 01, 2016, 11:39:52 PM »

South Australia

House
Adelaide - Kate Ellis should be safe here, the Liberals shouldn't bother trying to win Adelaide until she retires. The Nick Xenophon Team could make the margin and preference flows interesting though.
Barker - Liberal hold, although expect the Xenophon Team to come second, a significant portion of Barker has elected independents at the state level over the last two decades.
Boothby - Likely Liberal hold, although expect the Nick Xenophon Team to poll well here, particularly in the eastern half of the seat.
Grey - Liberal hold, although the Nick Xenophon Team have an outside chance here.
Hindmarsh - Glenelg, Henley Beach and the coast in general are good for the Liberals, while Labor does better inland, particularly around Mile End. If Labor gain any seats in South Australia, it will be likely this one. The Nick Xenophon Team have made this marginal seat a bit more complex, gun to my head, Williams holds on by a slither.
Kingston - Amanda Risworth, MP since 2007, most be a borderline superhero - this part of Adelaide is not normally safe Labor, and was a marginal seat until the 2010 election. Should stay Labor as long as Rishworth is MP.
Makin - Should be a Labor seat for as long as Tony Zappia is MP.
Mayo - Safe Liberal on paper, although Briggs' scandal may have created an opening for the Nick Xenophon Team. This area was a hotspot for the Democrats in the 1980s and 1990s, who came close to unseating Alexander Downer, Foreign Mninister 1996-2007, in 1998. Briggs has a lower profile than Downer ever did, and getting into hot water has made this one to watch. The way the polls are looking in South Australia, I'm marking this down as a Xenophon Team gain.
Port Adelaide - Easy ALP hold.
Sturt - Despite some polls saying otherwise, particularly with good poll numbers for the Nick Xenophon team, Christopher Pyne should win again. Sturt has not left Liberal hands since 1969, and while the Xenophon Team will likely finish second, Pyne should have enough of a buffer to win a ninth term.
Wakefield - Labor hold, although if Labor were to lose a seat in South Australia, it would be this one.
 
SUMMARY:
NXT gain from LIB: Mayo
Net gain/loss: LIB -1

Senate
NXT - 4
LIB - 3
ALP - 3
GRN - 1
FF - 1

Tasmania

House
Bass - Prone to large swings, Bass could go either way, although is the most likely of the three Liberal seats in Tasmania to stay blue. Likely Liberal hold.
Braddon - Toss-up, Liberals favoured.
Denison - Andrew Wilkie should easily win again.
Franklin - Labor hold.
Lyons - Dick Adams lost this after 20 years last election, and his personal following is now gone. Will be an interesting contest. Going for a narrow Labor gain.

SUMMARY:
ALP gain from LIB: Lyons
Net gain/loss: ALP +1

Senate
LIB: 4
ALP: 5
GRN: 2
JLN: 1

Australian Capital Territory

House
Canberra - Easy Labor hold.
Fenner - Easy Labor hold.

SUMMARY
No change.

Senate
LIB - 1
ALP - 1

Northern Territory

House
Lingiari - While Labor cannot take Lingiari for granted, the poor performance of the CLP territorial government, with a swing away from the CLP, should ensure Labor win another term.
Solomon - Always a close seat, Solomon will be one to watch in 2016.
I think the poor performance of the CLP territorial government will make relection for Griggs to high of a mountain to climb this year. Labor gain, with a decent swing (>4%)

SUMMARY
ALP gain from CLP: Solomon
Net gain/loss: ALP +1

Senate
CLP - 1
ALP - 1

TOTALS:

House
Coalition - 81 (52 LIB, 21 LNP, 8 NAT)
Labor - 63
Greens - 2
Independents - 2 (McGowan and Wilkie)
Katter's Australian Party - 1
Nick Xenophon Team - 1

Senate
Coalition - 29
Labor - 29
Greens - 8
Nick Xenophon Team - 4
Liberal Democrats - 1
Family First - 1
WA Nationals  - 1
Others - 3 (Jacqui Lambie, Glenn Lazarus, Derryn Hinch)
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« Reply #298 on: July 02, 2016, 01:48:43 AM »

Alright...

I'm going to stick with my prediction from yesterday of a hung parliament. But it feels very strange and unsettled out there. Basically no outcome short of a large Labor win would shock me. It feels like there are going to be surprises galore tonight.
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« Reply #299 on: July 02, 2016, 02:11:00 AM »

First exit poll has it at 50/50... this could be a really entertaining night regardless.
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