Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016

[Lachi]

Seats in doubt:

CAPRICORNIA: LAB ahead 50.4-49.6
FORDE: LAB ahead 50.4-49.6
COWAN: 50.1-49.9, LNP ahead on primary vote
PETRIE: 50.0-50.0, LNP ahead on primary vote

[morgieb]

My local electorate of Murray now has a +30% swing to the Nationals

Helps you didn't have a Nationals candidate in the last election

[Lachi]

My local electorate of Murray now has a +30% swing to the Nationals

Helps you didn't have a Nationals candidate in the last election

Lol, true

Also, forecast on latest results from in doubt seats takes the LNP to 76 exactly

[Mr. Morden]

Seats in doubt:

CAPRICORNIA: LAB ahead 50.4-49.6
FORDE: LAB ahead 50.4-49.6
COWAN: 50.1-49.9, LNP ahead on primary vote
PETRIE: 50.0-50.0, LNP ahead on primary vote

Looks like ABC now has both Capricornia and Petrie as 50.0-50.0.

[Lachi]

Seats in doubt:

CAPRICORNIA: LAB ahead 50.4-49.6
FORDE: LAB ahead 50.4-49.6
COWAN: 50.1-49.9, LNP ahead on primary vote
PETRIE: 50.0-50.0, LNP ahead on primary vote

Looks like ABC now has both Capricornia and Petrie as 50.0-50.0.

Petrie has now gone LNP

[morgieb]

Eden-Monaro flipping and Lindsay probably will too. Who the f**k will the media obsess over now assuming the Coalition holds on?

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Eden-Monaro flipping and Lindsay probably will too. Who the f**k will the media obsess over now assuming the Coalition holds on?

Corangamite or Petrie? Maybe Reid? (assuming Labor pick that one up next time they get in, assuming they don't form government this time)

[IceAgeComing]

A hung parliament is the most likely outcome; currently its 73/68/1/4 according to the ABC with the four undecided seats being split equally by the two major parties, although all are within half a percent so its incredibly close.  I'm not sure whether the ABC predictions are adjusted for postals (the predicted numbers are about 0.5% better for the Coalition than the current ones which makes me think that they've tried to do that) which suggests that they need to be a lot more LNP than expected to give the Coalition a bare majority.

The senate is kind of interesting: the Greens might end up with less Senators than they have now which isn't what anyone expected.  In terms of minor parties the Liberal Democrats, Motoring Enthusiasts, and Glenn Lazarus have definately lost (and Madigan technically I support although he was never expected to win); Family First need a boatload of preferences to hold their SA seat and unless PUP is much more popular in WA than literally everywhere else in Australia they've lost there as well.  Lambie has held her seat; Xenophon currently has 2.89 Quotas which I think will lead to 3 Senators; One Nation definately has one in Queensland but they've been slipping further back as more votes have been counted so I think they've lost the second one there, and they currently have 0.58 of a Quota in NSW which means that they need to get preferences from a few people to get a Senator there - there are a few votes out for parties that might give their votes to her over the major parties based on my amateur knowledge.  In Victoria Derryn Hinch's Justice Party has 0.78 of a Quota; that's close enough to give him that seat I think considering that there'll be a fair few exhausted votes in this election.  So in looks like there might be more "minor parties" in the new Senate; it depends on how the One Nation does in NSW.  It looks like the Greens might have six; definitely one everywhere but SA and there I think they ought to get one unless something odd happens.

If I'm wrong please tell me; I'm not an expert on Australian elections by any means

[Mr. Morden]

What is the best source for Senate results?

[Lachi]

The ABC has now proposed the real possibility of another election if the coalition cannot form a minority government.

also, MAPS!

Regional Victoria: https://gyazo.com/34c39793d46799fb0db3c8dec6eb48ec
Melbourne: Batman now in doubt again

Sydney: https://gyazo.com/c13ed44be1124fb3a0d46815bdf1b171
Regional NSW: https://gyazo.com/3eca6914183345e9dcc2a3f70a04da34

S.E Queensland: https://gyazo.com/4d0fe33a0cc2558c6132aec2b83f2eb8
Regional Queensland: Capricornia still in doubt

NT:https://gyazo.com/8232efa6ee6b036dc9ee5716b60c0425
TAS: https://gyazo.com/da0e99f0237a2628276d3b33b33fbcfc

Regional WA: https://gyazo.com/4914f9f4ea7792a0583cfaf3ec4de802
Perth: Cowan still in doubt

[morgieb]

What is the best source for Senate results?

http://vtr.aec.gov.au/SenateStateFirstPrefsByGroup-20499-NAT.htm works.

[libertpaulian]

The ABC has now proposed the real possibility of another election if the coalition cannot form a minority government.

ONE reason I'm grateful for the Presidential system my country has.

[IceAgeComing]

One Nation currently have 0.52 of a Quota in WA; ahead of the WA Nationals which is odd.  Does mean that they have an outside shot of a Senate seat there; although they'd want preferences to go their way.  NSW is drifting away from them, and they'll only get Hanson from Queensland.

The Greens currently have 1.4 quotas; means that they might only end up with one Senate seat which is disappointing since that's probably the place where they were most likely to get two.  Their vote share is down 4% from last time.

Other than that nothing has changed; I've not bothered to look at the smaller minor parties to work out how they'll preference since honestly I don't think that anyone really knows at this point just because of the sheer number of parties standing.

e: I'd argue that having an early election is better than the dysfunction that seems to have been typical in America recently...

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Looking at the results briefly atm it looks like a repeat of 1998 - the ALP swing was big but in all the wrong places (apart from Tasmania and a few unrepresentative places like MacArthur... what happened there?). Hopefully the LNP don't just scrap a majority with this.

[SATW]

finally he is speaking

[Tetro Kornbluth]

One positive is that Labor have won Eden-Monaro and Lindsay, so come whenever the next election will be, the media will have to obsess about something else.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Gilmore - which was declared earlier for the LNP - has been put back into play as later counts are leaning ALP. It's now 50-50.

[libertpaulian]

So far, the ABC site has retracted two seats- from 74 to 72 for the LNP.  Labor is stuck at 66.

[RogueBeaver]

Turnbull says counting will finish at 2 AM, won't resume till Tuesday, but he has been advised that the Coalition will form a majority government.

[morgieb]

Looking at the results briefly atm it looks like a repeat of 1998 - the ALP swing was big but in all the wrong places (apart from Tasmania and a few unrepresentative places like MacArthur... what happened there?). Hopefully the LNP don't just scrap a majority with this.

As I stated in my seat previews:

"Given that the margins in both here and Werriwa are somewhat deflated due to a lack of a real campaign in the former (AFAIK) and the parachuting of Laurie Ferguson instead of a local in the latter, the fact that the state seats that make up the district had pretty solid margins for Labor in the state election, and that Labor chose (seemingly) a well-regarded local candidate, it's hard to see the Liberals holding here."

So a combo of a strong candidate, a better campaign and good results for Labor in NSW meant that Labor won here with ease.

[Talleyrand]

Turnbull's "victory"  speech is a disaster- he sounds totally unnerved, and is rambling incoherently. Obviously he has not expecting it to be this tight.

[IceAgeComing]

Its pretty clear at this point that the Double Dissolution trigger bills probably won't pass through a Joint Session; since I think the Coalition has lost Senators (certainly hasn't gained any) and I don't see how the new Senate cross bench will be any more favourable - and they've lost House seats as well so they don't have a majority in a joint session

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

So, err, why is fish and chips lady back?

[Talleyrand]

So, err, why is fish and chips lady back?

The simplest explanation is that she has filled the "right-wing populist" (if you can ascribe an ideological term to it...) void created by the collapse of the PUP.

[IceAgeComing]

I don't know if anyone really knows; I didn't hear much rumbling about a One Nation senate win

They are still ahead of the Nationals in WA at this point; I'm pretty sure that they'll stay there.  Bad for the Nats; there was lots of talk about them winning at least one Senate seat and they've ended up miles short and finishing behind One Nation