Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016

[Antonio the Sixth]

Any chance of a 'Grand Coalition'?

lolololololololololololololol

[136or142]

Any chance of a 'Grand Coalition'?

lolololololololololololololol

So, you're saying there is a chance?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Any chance of a 'Grand Coalition'?

lolololololololololololololol

So, you're saying there is a chance?

lol

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

   If it comes down to a 73-72 seat breakdown is it likely that whoever has the 73rd seat will form the next government?  Of the 5 third party/indy winners is it safe to say that two lean right, two lean left (the Green and the Independent from Tasmania), and one is right in the middle (Nick Xenophone candidate)?

This is the Indi Independent:

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/jun/06/election-2016-marriage-equality-asylum-seekers-renewables-cathy-mcgowan-launches-indi-campaign

so more of a centre-leftist (although of course if she were to prop up a Labor government, I doubt she would be elected another term)

[Vega]

Will most of the remaining seats be called in the next few hours?

[Boston Bread]

Will most of the remaining seats be called in the next few hours?

The counting seems incredibly sluggish right now, sadly.

[Vega]

Will most of the remaining seats be called in the next few hours?

The counting seems incredibly sluggish right now, sadly.

Yeah, and the lack of consistency in seat numbers is odd.

[Blair]

tbh this is the result that UK labour was suppose to have in 2015

[Vega]

tbh this is the result that UK labour was suppose to have in 2015

If it happened this way, Miliband probably would have stayed on for better or for worse.

[reciprocity]

So the AEC has different numbers from ABC. I am pretty shocked because I pretty much spent my afternoon watching the ABC website (lol) and LNP for the time I was watching ahead by 4-6 seats but then it went 67/67. Now reading the AEC website, it has ALP at 72 and the Coalition at 66. This is confusing.

From what I was hearing from some of the commentary, Conservative voters may have not put their other preferences for the Liberals. If ALP comes out ahead of the LNP then I wonder if it was written in stone that 2016 was Labor's for the taking because I think if Abbott stayed, the Coalition would have decisively lost the election and Turnbull was meant to be the ''Great Moderate'' who would shield the marginals is really struggling.

[Lachi]

Will most of the remaining seats be called in the next few hours?

We have to wait for the postal votes to be counted, which won't start until Tuesday

[RogueBeaver]

Sky reporting that Albanese has powerbroker support to take Lab leadership.

[Cassius]

Sky reporting that Albanese has powerbroker support to take Lab leadership.

Lolaustralia.

Well, let's put it this way.  If Abbott was still PM, this would have been called for ALP hours ago.

expect his faction to carefully brush that fact out of history though.

Well, maybe. But Turnbull was supposed to be the guy who maintained the Coalition's comfortable majority because he was so moderate and electable, yet he's completely cocked that up.

Yeah. I have always thought Malcolm was a paper tiger, and it seems pretty clear that he played less well in certain electorates than a populist would have done. But already people like Bolt are writing objectively wrong stuff like that Abbott would have won this.

True enough.

[RogueBeaver]

I read on Thursday that a challenge would only happen if the Coalition won a majority. So has that changed, or do the challengers know something?

[Ebowed]

Albanese should be careful.  The rank and file has gone from backing him in 2013 to supporting Shorten.  I prefer Shorten as do many other leftists who preferred Albo three years ago.

Shorten ran a very strong campaign and that's why the result is in doubt right now.  To throw out the person who got the Labor party this far is a slap in the face.

[VPH]

Glad Katter held onto his seat. Just such an interesting, polarizing figure.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

I'm listening to Turnbull's speech right now and I don't really think it is as bitter as it is being made out to be. Granted, I'm only six minutes in.

[BaconBacon96]

Albanese should be careful.  The rank and file has gone from backing him in 2013 to supporting Shorten.  I prefer Shorten as do many other leftists who preferred Albo three years ago.

Shorten ran a very strong campaign and that's why the result is in doubt right now.  To throw out the person who got the Labor party this far is a slap in the face.

It would be absolutely ridiculous to challenge Shorten after such a result. And I say this as an Albanese fan.

[Mr. Morden]

I think even if the Libs regain the majority, Malcolm is finished as leader.

They're going to retain a majority, yet immediately dump their PM?  When was the last time that happened?

[Lachi]

HUNG PARLIAMENT, LNP with plurality

ALP: 70 (current projection: 72)
LNP: 74 (Current projection: 73)
GRN: 2 (did not pick up)
OTH: 4

GAINS:
ALP:
Macarthur
Reid
Deakin
Page
Robertson (Not called, LNP ahead)
Lindsay
Eden-Monaro
Banks
Braddon
Hindmarsh (Not called, LAB ahead)
Solomon
Lyons
Capricornia (Not called, LAB ahead)
Petrie (Not Called, LIB ahead)
(Bonner, Gilmore, Corangamite, La Trobe, and Bass all on a knife edge, Bonner being won by the LNP by 0.09%)

Others:
Greens (Batman)
NXT (Mayo)

Seats I did not call would go to Labor, but actually did:
Cowan (LAB ahead, but still in doubt)
Bass
Burt
Flynn
Longman
Macquarie
Herbert (In doubt, LAB ahead

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I don't buy this challenge nonsense. Shorten deserves another crack, even if the Libs fall over the line

[Intell]

I watched the election through the night, thought the liberals had it, now it's much closer. Also have to add, gosh was Turnbull a failure with a bitter speech.

[/]

What percent chance does Shorten have of becoming the next PM?

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

What percent chance does Shorten have of becoming the next PM?

The way that almost every pick up is heading in the ALP direction and the liberals seem to only be holding onto seats. I'd say Shorten has a good chance.

[morgieb]

What percent chance does Shorten have of becoming the next PM?

Most of the in doubt seats were projected as Liberal gains/Liberal ahead earlier, just that the ABC turned off their predictive software and now are using the current votes. I doubt Shorten wins.