Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016
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Author Topic: Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016  (Read 84562 times)
Vosem
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« Reply #425 on: July 02, 2016, 09:42:05 PM »

What percent chance does Shorten have of becoming the next PM?

If things hold as they are now, the ALP will lead the Coalition 73-72 with 5 independents who would mainly prefer Shorten to Turnbull. Later counts seem to be going against the Coalition, with the ALP gaining. I might say Shorten is narrowly favored at this point over Turnbull.

If the ALP can gain one more seat in later counts (Gilmore seems likeliest?) and the NXT pulls it off in Grey, then they'll lead the Coalition 74-70, with strong pressure on the NXT to back the ALP. They'll even be able to keep their promise of not coalescing with the Greens.

Of course this depends on guessing what the late returns will be like and what the crossbench will think, so it's all very unclear.

In the Senate, assuming preferences won't shift the margins between parties around by more than 0.15 quotas (which I think is a pretty safe assumption in most circumstances), then the following results seem baked in:
Territories: 2 Coalition, 2 Labor
NSW: 5 Coalition, 4 Labor, 1 Greens, 1 One Nation, 1 unclear (tossup between LDP/CDP)
Victoria: 4 Coalition, 4 Labor, 2 Greens, 1 Derryn Hinch, 1 unclear (extremely unclear; One Nation seems best-placed on first prefs, tho)
Queensland: 5 Coalition, 4 Labor, 1 Greens, 1 One Nation, 1 Liberal Democrats
Western Australia: 5 Coalition, 4 Labor, 2 Greens, 1 One Nation
South Australia: 4 Coalition, 4 Labor, 3 Nick Xenophon Team, 1 Greens
Tasmania: 5 Labor, 4 Coalition, 2 Greens, 1 Jacqui Lambie Network

Total:
29 Coalition
27 Labor
9 Greens
3 Nick Xenophon Team
3 One Nation
1 Liberal Democrats
1 Jacqui Lambie Network
2 unclear (but 2 more minor right seats of some sort seem likeliest)

Point is, ALP+NXT+Greens is very likely to be a majority in the Senate, as well, which could influence how the House crossbenchers pick the next Prime Minister.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #426 on: July 02, 2016, 09:44:18 PM »

I think Shorten has a decent chance. Turnbull is still in the driver's seat, but I wouldn't be at all confident about the outcome.

What percent chance does Shorten have of becoming the next PM?
Most of the in doubt seats were projected as Liberal gains/Liberal ahead earlier, just that the ABC turned off their predictive software and now are using the current votes. I doubt Shorten wins.

There's a reason why the predictive software was turned off, it's because the modelling isn't being matched by the outcomes.
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VPH
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« Reply #427 on: July 02, 2016, 10:05:28 PM »

How do the senate elections work?
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morgieb
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« Reply #428 on: July 02, 2016, 10:29:29 PM »

How do the senate elections work?
Essentially you preference at least 6 squares above the line or 12 below the line. There are 6 (12 in this election because it's a double dissolution, usually only the half the Senate is up for election) quotas to reach per state (2 in the territories). If you get above 7.7% (IIRC) you get into the Senate. If there are quotas leftover, it'll be how you go in preferences.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #429 on: July 03, 2016, 02:20:19 AM »
« Edited: July 03, 2016, 02:29:21 AM by Fmr President & Senator Polnut »

Well... my take.

Despite predicting a hung Parliament (that's not discounting a decent move on postals to help them to 76) I'm surprised by a few things as to how it may have come about.

1. The swing in Tasmania, which NO ONE saw coming. I know the Libs started pumping money into Bass, but I did think Braddon was more of a danger... but there you go.

2. Without doubt the story and the biggest factor was the performance of the ALP in NSW, and especially Sydney. Not only did they see large swings 7%+ in their own safe seats, they got decent swings in seats that were viewed as vulnerable to the Libs, such as Parramatta and Greenway as well as the scale of the swings in Lindsay, Gilmore etc.

3. Despite suggestions about the Libs sand-bagging marginals, it really seems Labor had the overall stronger marginals campaign.

4. The biggest surprise was the under-performance in Victoria and Queensland. In both, incumbent ALP members increased their margins, but, especially in VIC they just couldn't crack most marginals (largely because there are so few) but Dunkley remains in the danger zone for the Libs and obviously, so does Chisholm for the ALP. But the BIGGEST shock to me wasn't that the ALP couldn't flip Brisbane... I did think it was likely to be a bridge too far, but to have a swing TO the LNP in both central Brisbane seats (Brisbane and Griffith) was kind of mind-boggling.
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Ebowed
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« Reply #430 on: July 03, 2016, 02:26:52 AM »

Labor just pulled ahead in the National 2PP.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #431 on: July 03, 2016, 02:29:02 AM »

Shorten outright winning isn't out of the cards yet, but we'll see. Hard to see how there isn't another election soon, since it might end up with a byelection or two costing the government their majority.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #432 on: July 03, 2016, 02:53:53 AM »

Shorten outright winning isn't out of the cards yet, but we'll see. Hard to see how there isn't another election soon, since it might end up with a byelection or two costing the government their majority.

It pretty much is. Labor needs to flip decent leads in some seats that would be huge upsets, in addition to winning every seat they're only just ahead in. 72 is kind of the best I can expect for the ALP ...

Labor just pulled ahead in the National 2PP.

They were ahead this morning then the Libs got it back. But I think the best case scenario is something like 50.4-6 for the Libs in the end.
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politicallefty
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« Reply #433 on: July 03, 2016, 05:15:09 AM »

I checked up on the results early yesterday morning and I recall the LNP being up by something like 73-66 over the ALP. Now, the ALP leads 67-65. Apparently, reading here, Bill Shorten's leadership is at risk? I know Australian political parties aren't entirely rational, but it appears that the ALP will at least be denying the LNP a majority. Why the f-ck would anyone attempt a party coup based on those results? While an outright majority doesn't seem possible, it's certainly possible that the ALP could win enough seats to form a minority or coalition government, is it not?
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #434 on: July 03, 2016, 05:20:48 AM »

If Shorten gets toppled now, the ALP really needs to reform its leadership selection process.
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Phony Moderate
Obamaisdabest
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« Reply #435 on: July 03, 2016, 05:33:06 AM »

If Shorten gets toppled now, the ALP really needs to reform its leadership selection process.

They already did that.
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morgieb
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« Reply #436 on: July 03, 2016, 05:55:50 AM »

If Shorten gets toppled now, the ALP really needs to reform its leadership selection process.
Won't happen. Plibersek was kinda equovial about the leadership, but given how close Shorten has got he should be fine.
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Knives
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« Reply #437 on: July 03, 2016, 05:56:11 AM »

Shorten is going nowhere - simply Murdoch trying to undermine our next PM.
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Lachi
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« Reply #438 on: July 03, 2016, 05:57:19 AM »

New projection from ABC:
ALP: 72
L/NP:72
GRN:1
NXT:2 (now ahead in grey)
OTH:3
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #439 on: July 03, 2016, 06:06:14 AM »

If Shorten gets toppled now, the ALP really needs to reform its leadership selection process.

They already did that.

Indeed, the reform is the reason for this. The mechanism allows for the leadership to automatically vacated after an election loss, if there is no other candidate the leader then re-assumes the leadership, if there's a rival then there's an election.

Albo claimed in 2013 that he only ran to provide an alternative.

I'll put it this way, I think Albo even considering a challenge of any kind after Shorten's performance would be a self-inflicted blow of massive proportions.

But it won't happen.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #440 on: July 03, 2016, 08:11:27 AM »

New projection from ABC:
ALP: 72
L/NP:72
GRN:1
NXT:2 (now ahead in grey)
OTH:3

Yeah, I just saw that.  So then, if that turns out to be the result, what happens?  Government is formed by whichever party Xenophon goes with?  What is likely to happen there?
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #441 on: July 03, 2016, 08:34:35 AM »

I think Grey is a LONG way from settled. I wouldn't give it to NXT at this point. Unless something goes horribly wrong/right on postals etc 72 I still see as the ALP best case scenario.

For academic purposes, IF that ended up being the chamber I think the ALP becomes favourite. Largely because the only natural ally of 'others' that the Libs have is Katter and that only gets you to 73. The challenge becomes who can get to 76 OR show the GG they have the ability to guarantee supply. NXT has said his key criteria is who can best deliver stable government - that includes the Senate. So far, you'd say that the ALP/GRN bloc is stronger in the Senate than the LNPs right now.

So
ALP - 72
GRN - 1
Wilkie - 1
NXT - 2

With McGowan as Speaker? - equals 76+speaker vs 73 (LNP+Katter).

The reality is, the LNP needs to be at 74-75 to be able to be sure they can get over the line, the ALP can be as low as 71.
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Talleyrand
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« Reply #442 on: July 03, 2016, 09:57:51 AM »

Think the ALP getting 72 seats is highly unlikely... Postals will probably very strong for the LNP in Flynn and Capricornia, and the margin in Forde is way too tiny to withstand them either. The Liberals also have an outside chance of grabbing back Hindmarsh.

I doubt any other seat flips, although I think the NXT falls short in Grey.

Kevin Bonham says Melbourne Ports could be an interesting 3-cornered contest with potential to fall to the Liberals or possibly even the Greens, but the ALP in all likelihood has it.

I'm currently guessing Coalition 76 (a bare majority), 69 ALP, 1 GRN, 1 KAP, 1, NXT, 2 IND.
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rob in cal
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« Reply #443 on: July 03, 2016, 10:22:40 AM »

   The AEC website has lots of great info.  If you click on results by division its got a breakdown by precinct, and at the bottom shows how many postal ballots have been received, though they haven't been counted yet.
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rob in cal
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« Reply #444 on: July 03, 2016, 11:01:14 AM »

   Looks like a typical seat has about 7-9 thousand postal votes waiting to be counted.  In 2013, Coalition candidates usually did about 3-5% better in postal votes than regular votes according to some random seats that I checked, so if this holds true, Liberals have a good shot at Hindmarsh and Forde, which ALP currently lead, and by this logic Liberals would hold unto all seats where they have a small lead such as Chisolm and Dunkley. This scenario gives ALP 70 seats (based on ABC projections which have them at 67 already won, plus winning Capricorn, Herbert and Cowan).
    Still unclear is Grey, because not many of the precincts have gotten to the TPP vote yet according to the AEC site. Not counting Grey we come to Liberals at 74 seats (nine of the still up for grabs, plus the 65 already won according to ABC).
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morgieb
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« Reply #445 on: July 03, 2016, 11:17:06 AM »

Think the ALP getting 72 seats is highly unlikely... Postals will probably very strong for the LNP in Flynn and Capricornia, and the margin in Forde is way too tiny to withstand them either. The Liberals also have an outside chance of grabbing back Hindmarsh.

I doubt any other seat flips, although I think the NXT falls short in Grey.

Kevin Bonham says Melbourne Ports could be an interesting 3-cornered contest with potential to fall to the Liberals or possibly even the Greens, but the ALP in all likelihood has it.

I'm currently guessing Coalition 76 (a bare majority), 69 ALP, 1 GRN, 1 KAP, 1, NXT, 2 IND.
But how strong though? Labor's current 2PP vote there is 51.5%. The reason why they were so strong the last time around was because of FIFO workers, and there aren't as many of them in this election.
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Bacon King
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« Reply #446 on: July 03, 2016, 06:49:13 PM »

Nationwide in 2013, the inclusion of non-ordinary votes (i.e. absent, provisional, pre-poll, and postal) only increased the coalition's first preference vote share by 0.14 points, and decreased Labor's by 0.44. Greens increased their vote share by 0.24, mostly due to a very strong performance among "absent" votes.
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #447 on: July 03, 2016, 07:35:25 PM »

Nationwide in 2013, the inclusion of non-ordinary votes (i.e. absent, provisional, pre-poll, and postal) only increased the coalition's first preference vote share by 0.14 points, and decreased Labor's by 0.44. Greens increased their vote share by 0.24, mostly due to a very strong performance among "absent" votes.

Sounds like Batman could get closer and maybe flip.
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Bacon King
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« Reply #448 on: July 03, 2016, 07:41:06 PM »
« Edited: July 03, 2016, 07:48:07 PM by Bacon! »

Change in 2013 Labor 2PP vote share when all non-ordinary vote types (postal, pre-poll, etc) were added:
(i.e. change in vote share between "ordinary" votes and total votes)

Petrie: +0.01
Hindmarsh: no change
Gilmore: -0.11
Herbert: -0.14
Cowan: -0.33
Dickson: -0.44
Robertson: -0.47
La Trobe: -0.59
Chisholm: -0.61
Dunkley: -0.80
Capricornia: -0.88
Forde -2.14
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #449 on: July 03, 2016, 08:33:01 PM »

Nationwide in 2013, the inclusion of non-ordinary votes (i.e. absent, provisional, pre-poll, and postal) only increased the coalition's first preference vote share by 0.14 points, and decreased Labor's by 0.44. Greens increased their vote share by 0.24, mostly due to a very strong performance among "absent" votes.

Sounds like Batman could get closer and maybe flip.

I'd be shocked if Batman flipped at this point.
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