Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016
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Adam T
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« Reply #450 on: July 03, 2016, 09:22:43 PM »
« edited: July 03, 2016, 09:38:45 PM by Adam T »

Nationwide in 2013, the inclusion of non-ordinary votes (i.e. absent, provisional, pre-poll, and postal) only increased the coalition's first preference vote share by 0.14 points, and decreased Labor's by 0.44. Greens increased their vote share by 0.24, mostly due to a very strong performance among "absent" votes.

Sounds like Batman could get closer and maybe flip.

I'd be shocked if Batman flipped at this point.

I'd be like "holy shock, Batman flipped!"
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #451 on: July 03, 2016, 09:28:37 PM »

Nationwide in 2013, the inclusion of non-ordinary votes (i.e. absent, provisional, pre-poll, and postal) only increased the coalition's first preference vote share by 0.14 points, and decreased Labor's by 0.44. Greens increased their vote share by 0.24, mostly due to a very strong performance among "absent" votes.
If so postals might not be able to shift any seats, resulting in a 72-72 tie. A net shift of 0.06 to the coalition on TPP wouldn't get them any of the close seats.
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Talleyrand
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« Reply #452 on: July 03, 2016, 09:32:54 PM »

Think the ALP getting 72 seats is highly unlikely... Postals will probably very strong for the LNP in Flynn and Capricornia, and the margin in Forde is way too tiny to withstand them either. The Liberals also have an outside chance of grabbing back Hindmarsh.

I doubt any other seat flips, although I think the NXT falls short in Grey.

Kevin Bonham says Melbourne Ports could be an interesting 3-cornered contest with potential to fall to the Liberals or possibly even the Greens, but the ALP in all likelihood has it.

I'm currently guessing Coalition 76 (a bare majority), 69 ALP, 1 GRN, 1 KAP, 1, NXT, 2 IND.
But how strong though? Labor's current 2PP vote there is 51.5%. The reason why they were so strong the last time around was because of FIFO workers, and there aren't as many of them in this election.

Hmmm... that's interesting. In that case, I think ALP could very well hold on there, but obviously we'll have to wait and see.

Nationwide in 2013, the inclusion of non-ordinary votes (i.e. absent, provisional, pre-poll, and postal) only increased the coalition's first preference vote share by 0.14 points, and decreased Labor's by 0.44. Greens increased their vote share by 0.24, mostly due to a very strong performance among "absent" votes.
If so postals might not be able to shift any seats, resulting in a 72-72 tie. A net shift of 0.06 to the coalition on TPP wouldn't get them any of the close seats.

Look at the changes in the individual seats- that suggests Forde will almost certainly flip back to the Coalition and Capricornia probably will too. Assuming they hold on to Grey, you'd get a 75-70 result.
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #453 on: July 03, 2016, 09:44:12 PM »


Nationwide in 2013, the inclusion of non-ordinary votes (i.e. absent, provisional, pre-poll, and postal) only increased the coalition's first preference vote share by 0.14 points, and decreased Labor's by 0.44. Greens increased their vote share by 0.24, mostly due to a very strong performance among "absent" votes.
If so postals might not be able to shift any seats, resulting in a 72-72 tie. A net shift of 0.06 to the coalition on TPP wouldn't get them any of the close seats.

Look at the changes in the individual seats- that suggests Forde will almost certainly flip back to the Coalition and Capricornia probably will too. Assuming they hold on to Grey, you'd get a 75-70 result.
My 72-72 guess already has Forde and Capricornia with the Liberals, as AEC shows Liberals narrowly ahead in both right now. They can get to 73 with Grey.
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morgieb
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« Reply #454 on: July 03, 2016, 09:59:38 PM »

On another note, a look at the swings so far at the election (if the swing is -%, then it swung away from the Liberals)

Burt   -14.50%
Macarthur   -12.60%
Paterson   -11.10%
Bass   -10.60%
Watson   -9.90%
Blaxland   -9.40%
Chifley   -9.00%
Brand   -8.50%
Longman   -8.40%
Solomon   -8.40%
McEwen   -8.30%
McMahon   -8.30%
Flynn   -8.10%
Kingston   -7.80%
Wakefield   -7.60%
Rankin   -7.40%
Hunter   -7.10%
Port Adelaide   -7.10%
Herbert   -6.90%
Macquarie   -6.90%
Maranoa   -6.60%
Lingiari   -6.50%
Eden-Monaro   -6.40%
Kingsford Smith   -6.30%
Parramatta   -6.00%
McMillan   -5.90%
Pearce   -5.90%
Dickson   -5.90%
Franklin   -5.90%
Wide Bay   -5.70%
Oxley   -5.70%
Calwell   -5.70%
Dobell   -5.50%
Parkes   -5.40%
Menzies   -5.40%
Holt   -5.40%
Braddon   -5.30%
Fowler   -5.30%
Dunkley   -5.20%
Cowan   -5.20%
Canning   -5.10%
Flinders   -4.90%
Makin   -4.70%
Lindsay   -4.60%
Newcastle   -4.60%
Dawson   -4.50%
Forde   -4.50%
Swan   -4.20%
Hasluck   -4.20%
Barton   -4.10%
Mitchell   -4.00%
Sturt   -3.90%
Scullin   -3.90%
Lyons   -3.70%
Blair   -3.70%
Gilmore   -3.60%
Gorton   -3.60%
Greenway   -3.50%
Hume   -3.40%
Fenner   -3.30%
Warringah   -3.20%
Boothby   -3.20%
Lilley   -3.20%
La Trobe   -3.10%
Fadden   -3.00%
Riverina   -2.90%
Stirling   -2.90%
Corio   -2.90%
Mackellar   -2.80%
Calare   -2.80%
Moreton   -2.80%
Bruce   -2.80%
Moncrieff   -2.70%
Richmond   -2.70%
Shortland   -2.70%
Fremantle   -2.60%
Bendigo   -2.50%
Sydney   -2.50%
Gellibrand   -2.50%
Berowra   -2.40%
Wright   -2.40%
Robertson   -2.40%
Groom   -2.30%
North Sydney   -2.30%
Hughes   -2.30%
Leichhardt   -2.30%
Hindmarsh   -2.20%
Mallee   -2.10%
Wentworth   -2.10%
Lalor   -2.10%
Forrest   -1.90%
Bowman   -1.90%
Casey   -1.90%
Isaacs   -1.90%
Cunningham   -1.90%
Ballarat   -1.80%
Perth   -1.70%
Whitlam   -1.70%
Banks   -1.60%
Werriwa   -1.60%
Durack   -1.50%
Lyne   -1.50%
Tangney   -1.50%
Moore   -1.50%
Wannon   -1.50%
Capricornia   -1.50%
Farrer   -1.40%
McPherson   -1.40%
Corangamite   -1.20%
Hinkler   -1.10%
Bonner   -1.10%
Jagajaga   -1.10%
Hotham   -1.10%
Maribyrnong   -1.10%
Page   -1.00%
Adelaide   -1.00%
Fairfax   -0.80%
Canberra   -0.80%
Fisher   -0.40%
Cook   -0.10%
Bradfield   0.10%
Petrie   0.30%
Ryan   0.40%
Aston   0.40%
Goldstein   0.80%
Melbourne Ports   0.80%
Griffith   1.00%
Brisbane   1.10%
Reid   1.30%
Kooyong   1.50%
Chisholm   1.60%
Bennelong   1.80%
Deakin   1.90%
Curtin   2.80%
Gippsland   2.90%

Only listed seats with a conventional Labor/Coalition 2PP vote. The rest we'll see the 2PP vote in a couple of weeks.

4 seats experienced swings of over 10%. I know what happened in Burt, Macarthur and Paterson - they were all seats affected by the redistribution. In Macarthur and Paterson they gained areas that were heavily Labor-leaning, and the booths that were kept in the district had an underlying Labor vote that was lying dormant because it was swamped by Coalition-leaning territory and Labor didn't really campaign there. Also there was a large swing in Hunter (where most of the Paterson booths came from) in 2013 and Labor's old MP for Werriwa (which Macarthur gained substantual territory from) was not a local and was therefore unpopular in the district. In Burt this was a new seat created from territory that had a strong personal vote for Don Randall, but was Labor-leaning at the state level. With him not contesting for sadly obvious reasons, it was ripe for a huge swing, especially with a general recovery in Labor fortunes in WA.

Bass on the other hand is more interesting. Especially given Lyons and Braddon didn't swing anywhere near as much and they seem more fertile territory for the ALP. Was Nikolic really that bad of a candidate?

On the other hand, two seats experienced swings of nearly 3% to the Coalition. I get why Bishop's popularity would've improved in her seat, but Gippsland is interesting. I guess the CFA thing may have had an effect here (although given the results in McEwen I'm skeptical), but what's more interesting is that neighbouring McMillan had a fairly large swing well above the state average back to the Coalition. And there was a general trend back to Labor in blue-collar areas which Gippsland had a few of.
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morgieb
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« Reply #455 on: July 03, 2016, 10:10:32 PM »

If you want more #analysis of why seats swung like they did, I'll give you a few possible reasons >_>
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Knives
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« Reply #456 on: July 03, 2016, 10:23:23 PM »

Does Amanda Risworth stuff ballot boxes? Her margin is crazy for a seat the Libs used to hold.
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morgieb
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« Reply #457 on: July 03, 2016, 10:33:23 PM »

Does Amanda Risworth stuff ballot boxes? Her margin is crazy for a seat the Libs used to hold.
lol yeah she must be made of gold.

Heard she's a very good local MP, and there's been a trend to Labor in South Australia in recent years from what I see. But even so 17% is insane.
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Intell
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« Reply #458 on: July 03, 2016, 10:38:12 PM »

An Analysis of the seat of swan, where I live would be nice.
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Talleyrand
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« Reply #459 on: July 03, 2016, 10:38:43 PM »


Nationwide in 2013, the inclusion of non-ordinary votes (i.e. absent, provisional, pre-poll, and postal) only increased the coalition's first preference vote share by 0.14 points, and decreased Labor's by 0.44. Greens increased their vote share by 0.24, mostly due to a very strong performance among "absent" votes.
If so postals might not be able to shift any seats, resulting in a 72-72 tie. A net shift of 0.06 to the coalition on TPP wouldn't get them any of the close seats.

Look at the changes in the individual seats- that suggests Forde will almost certainly flip back to the Coalition and Capricornia probably will too. Assuming they hold on to Grey, you'd get a 75-70 result.
My 72-72 guess already has Forde and Capricornia with the Liberals, as AEC shows Liberals narrowly ahead in both right now. They can get to 73 with Grey.

AEC has the ALP narrowly ahead in both. Labor has a 0.1% margin in Forde and 0.7% in Capricornia.
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morgieb
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« Reply #460 on: July 03, 2016, 10:52:04 PM »
« Edited: July 03, 2016, 10:57:16 PM by morgieb »

An Analysis of the seat of swan, where I live would be nice.
Interesting one, was a bit of a disappointment for Labor on the night for mine, because I felt it was gonna be marginal, but no it looks safe-ish for Irons. Looking at the booths, it looks like the swing was patchy, but it appears that Labor did better in the eastern, more swingy booths than the more solidly Liberal Western booths (there's a huge East-West divide here, the West is very much blue blood Liberal, but the rest of the seat is much more swingy). This pattern was not atypical this election, in many seats the Labor vote swung the most in the more naturally Labor-leaning areas.

Probably Anton Kreitzer might know this part of the world better than me, I'm from the other side of the country Tongue
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Talleyrand
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« Reply #461 on: July 03, 2016, 11:05:29 PM »

Didn't Swan have poor candidate selection too? The ALP candidate was a former Green who had never voted ALP, and called the incumbent Liberal MP (who grew up as a ward of the state) a "rich white man" during the campaign.
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morgieb
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« Reply #462 on: July 03, 2016, 11:35:43 PM »

Didn't Swan have poor candidate selection too? The ALP candidate was a former Green who had never voted ALP, and called the incumbent Liberal MP (who grew up as a ward of the state) a "rich white man" during the campaign.
That makes sense as to why the swing was kinda underwhelming, did not know about that.
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Ebowed
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« Reply #463 on: July 04, 2016, 12:09:48 AM »

When is Malcolm Turnbull going to resign?  He should be feeling pretty embarrassed after that hilariously terrible concession speech on Saturday night.

Australian Labor Party - 4,963,280 (50.23%)
Liberal/National Coalition - 4,917,543 (49.77%)

Face it, Malcolm - Australia hates you! Smiley
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Talleyrand
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« Reply #464 on: July 04, 2016, 01:34:36 AM »

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/election-2016-odds-on-for-mixed-queensland-result-20160704-gpy369.html

Interesting article on the 5 LNP-held seats the ALP is currently leading in Queensland.

In summation-

The ALP thinks it's unlikely they'll win Flynn or Forde.

Labor is confident it'll take Herbert, and has claimed Longman.

ALP thinks they have a better chance of taking Capricornia than Forde, but don't think they'll get both (whatever that means...)

Looking pretty good for a Coalition government- quite possibly a majority. According to the Guardian, an unnamed Coalition MP thinks they'll get 76-77 when it's all said and done.
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Ebowed
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« Reply #465 on: July 04, 2016, 01:40:31 AM »
« Edited: July 04, 2016, 01:42:19 AM by Ebowed »

I'm fascinated at the prospect of a 76 seat Coalition government that has literally no mandate for anything except a plebiscite on equal rights.  They won't be able to get their corporate tax give-away or union busting legislation through the Senate.  They aren't going to be able to keep cutting health and education and their deficit will only blow out further as they keep trying to cut revenues.  They are hopeless.

One thing's for sure, people didn't vote for PM Tony Abbott or PM Scott Morrison and given the way Turnbull "leads" his party he is not going to last for much longer.

We could all save ourselves a lot of pointless hassle if Shorten gets to lead the government.

It's pretty striking how the media convinced everyone (including me) that the Coalition would win... because they said so.

In reality, Turnbull, who is basically Australia's Mitt Romney and his unskewed polling, should be taken with a grain of salt when he provides any numbers, or indeed, any statements at all. If we had treated his electoral confidence like his economic forecasts and budget modelling, we would have known that he was cooking the books, as always!
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #466 on: July 04, 2016, 02:22:08 AM »

Just heard from a Labor person they are confident of getting to at least 70, Flynn was a BAD postal result for the ALP in 2013, but they don't expect it to be anywhere near that bad this year.
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #467 on: July 04, 2016, 02:27:33 AM »

I'd love to see a second election this year. It would be funny if that happened in Austria and Australia.

It will be interesting to see if we get any lasting change from this period of instability. Turnbull doesn't seem long for the PM-ship. Not that Shorten will win, but I'm not sure how long Turnbull will last this term. Anything less than a majority would be awful for him.
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Lachi
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« Reply #468 on: July 04, 2016, 03:12:17 AM »

The Australian Electoral Commision now has the following seat totals:
ALP: 71
LNP: 67
NXT: 2
GRN: 1
KAP: 1
IND: 2
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #469 on: July 04, 2016, 08:14:32 AM »

Does Amanda Risworth stuff ballot boxes? Her margin is crazy for a seat the Libs used to hold.

It isn't a seat that they ever had any business holding though. Overwhelmingly working class.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #470 on: July 04, 2016, 05:29:56 PM »

Was Nikolic really that bad of a candidate?

Yes. Amazed that anyone thought Bass was going to stay Liberal tbh.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #471 on: July 04, 2016, 06:52:00 PM »

Provisional results map:



When they are *final* you'll get (as always) one with a more detailed key etc.
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Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends
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« Reply #472 on: July 04, 2016, 07:48:27 PM »

An Analysis of the seat of swan, where I live would be nice.
Interesting one, was a bit of a disappointment for Labor on the night for mine, because I felt it was gonna be marginal, but no it looks safe-ish for Irons. Looking at the booths, it looks like the swing was patchy, but it appears that Labor did better in the eastern, more swingy booths than the more solidly Liberal Western booths (there's a huge East-West divide here, the West is very much blue blood Liberal, but the rest of the seat is much more swingy). This pattern was not atypical this election, in many seats the Labor vote swung the most in the more naturally Labor-leaning areas.

Probably Anton Kreitzer might know this part of the world better than me, I'm from the other side of the country Tongue

AK reporting here, regarding Swan, while Labor did either win back or improve their performance in a lot of the east of the seat (Cannington, Belmont/Kewdale/Redcliffe, the High Wycombe area from Hasluck, which tends to vote with the overall winner), the strongly Liberal South Perth/Como area held up really well, and indeed, the Liberals got a swing TO them in most of the South Perth and Como booths. In most booths, the swing to Labor was not enough to win back the seat, and areas like Rivervale (the area of Belmont near the casino and new stadium) are getting better for the Liberals.

Irons' incumbency would have helped as well, and also, voters differentiating between state and federal issues. Speaking of which, in next year's state election, expect a big swing to Labor in the state seats of Belmont (most of the northeast of Swan) and Forrestfield (where High Wycombe is, most of this seat is in neighbouring Hasluck).

If you'd like analysis of any other WA seats, feel free to ask Smiley
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Ebowed
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« Reply #473 on: July 04, 2016, 08:57:08 PM »

States by popular vote so far...

Victoria
ALP - 51.92%  (+1.72)
LNC - 48.08%

New South Wales
LNC - 50.20%
ALP - 49.80%  (+4.15)

Queensland
LNC - 53.51%
ALP - 46.49%  (+3.47)

Western Australia
LNC - 53.19%
ALP - 46.81%  (+5.09)

Northern Territory
ALP - 58.02%  (+8.37)
LNC - 41.98%

South Australia
ALP - 56.97%  (+9.33)
LNC - 43.03%

Tasmania
ALP - 55.76%  (+4.53)
LNC - 44.24%

Capital Territory
ALP - 61.33%  (+1.42)
LNC - 38.67%

Nationwide
Australian Labor Party - 4,976,336 - 50.24%  (+3.73)
Liberal/Nationalist Coalition - 4,929,345 - 49.76%
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morgieb
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« Reply #474 on: July 04, 2016, 10:38:50 PM »

FWIW, postals have apparently been counted in Franklin.

Interestingly, they have broken 48.3% ALP – 37.5% Lib on primar votes. In contrast, in 2013 postals broke 37.9% ALP – 43.8% Lib.
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