Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

Oakeshott is now AHEAD in Cowper according to the Guardian!?!?!?!?!?!

[Lachi]

Oakeshott is now AHEAD in Cowper according to the Guardian!?!?!?!?!?!

Remember, the two-party preferred count has only just begun today in Cowper, so, honestly, I think the nationals will hold there

[jimrtex]

What sort of strategies were the parties advocating for marking the senate ballot?

Under the old system, presumably the advice would be: "It's insane to vote below the line, vote for us above the line", along with a reminder which column number they were in the state.

A voter who was inclined to vote for a single-issue party might try to analyze their preference order, but would quickly become confused or bored, and simply pick their issue. Any tactics would be left to the agents who would try to figure out other groups whose 77th preference to them, in exchange for a 63rd preference that they knew probably not reciprocate.

Under the new system, it might be risky having voters voting above the line, since they might continue the practice of marking only one party, resulting in an informal ballot. Parties with a full slate of twelve might be content with voters ranking their candidates below the ballot. There is no real harm in voters switching the order around, and probably is helpful.

For example with ALP at 4.17 quotas in NSW, the 5th candidate would be in 8th place for the final 4 seats after the initial 8 seats were given out (4 to the Coalition and 4 for ALP) under the old system. The Greens at 0.96 would get the 9th seat sometime, but that puts the ALP candidate 7th place for the final 3 seats.

A large party that encouraged voting above the line might also have to endorse other parties, and they really don't want to give the people the idea that it is OK to wander.

But spreading the first preferences out would likely keep the 4th and 5th candidates continuing, with more opportunity to win a 5th seat.

The single-issue parties could instruct their supporters who to vote for above the line, but would voters listen? And putting out a specific order, might be seen as conniving.

So what were the parties actually suggesting? What about the press? Are there any good government groups? If you voted, what did you do?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Oakeshott is now AHEAD in Cowper according to the Guardian!?!?!?!?!?!

It's a total of about 1400 votes TPP, that should shift back to Nats.

The Nats are on 46% primary... that should absolutely be enough.

[morgieb]

Some pretty awful postal flows in Queensland - Flynn 65/35 LNP, Herbert and Longman 58/42 LNP. Could just be a bad batch, but if they continue the Liberals will probably end up gaining majority government. And the Liberal government will be far smoother sailing than what I thought earlier this week.

[Bacon King]

Could just be a bad batch, but if they continue the Liberals will probably end up gaining majority government.

is there any reason to expect this? e.g. do they count the postals in the order they receive them like in the US?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Ugh - the degree to which Labor doesn't deal with postals drives me insane.

[rob in cal]

  This reminds me of Austria, where postals went strongly  toward Van Der Bellen and pushed him over the top even though he lost the vote among the non-postals.

[DL]

Ugh - the degree to which Labor doesn't deal with postals drives me insane.

Keep in mind that because Australia has compulsory voting the turnout is typically over 90% so its all a zero sum game. Sure Labour good make a much bigger effort to get their identified voters to vote postal...but for the most part it would just subtract from the number of people voting Labour pre-poll or on election day - so it really doesnt get you anywhere.

It would only make sense for Labour to make a much bigger push for postal votes if they genuinely belived that there was some hitherto unknown pool of non-voters who could be motivated to vote Labour by post and who would not otherwise vote any other way.

[Vosem]

Some pretty awful postal flows in Queensland - Flynn 65/35 LNP, Herbert and Longman 58/42 LNP. Could just be a bad batch, but if they continue the Liberals will probably end up gaining majority government. And the Liberal government will be far smoother sailing than what I thought earlier this week.

Is this likely to continue? If the remaining vote looks like postal numbers then the LNP will have ended up not losing a single seat in Queensland after all the sturm und drang. (As an aside, it looks like the margin in Hindmarsh -- which didn't shift at all in 2013 -- has been halved).

[rob in cal]

    If Flynn postal votes so far are any indication, it looks like it should be flipped from the ALP column to the close seat column.

[Knives]

I'm very happy to see Ann Aly is likely to win - great for representation she also seems incredibly intelligent.

[RogueBeaver]

Green: Coalition at 73, 76 possible.

[morgieb]

Could just be a bad batch, but if they continue the Liberals will probably end up gaining majority government.

is there any reason to expect this? e.g. do they count the postals in the order they receive them like in the US?

It's very hard to say. I thought that yes they count them in the order they receive them, and that should mean that early postals may favour the Coalition, especially in Queensland where the last week of the campaign was held in school holidays (and uni ones), where the mix of people who request postal votes are far more diverse than usual. However, there's this to consider off a guy from the Poll Bludger.....

It’s also the case that the first postal ballots sent out would usually be to registered general postal voters, those whose situations put them in need of a postal vote at every election, and who therefore don’t have to make a specific application. How long they would take to be returned is a different question. In addition, the fact that you can now apply for a postal vote online, a very simple and straightforward process, means that some normal applications probably get their ballots almost as soon as the general postal voters. In addition, the hardcopy postal vote applications which were sent out by the LNP, but not by the ALP, would be routed back through the LNP offices, which would add a bit of time to the process. Overall, it’s a somewhat complicated situation.

[Mr. Morden]

For academic purposes, IF that ended up being the chamber I think the ALP becomes favourite. Largely because the only natural ally of 'others' that the Libs have is Katter and that only gets you to 73. The challenge becomes who can get to 76 OR show the GG they have the ability to guarantee supply. NXT has said his key criteria is who can best deliver stable government - that includes the Senate. So far, you'd say that the ALP/GRN bloc is stronger in the Senate than the LNPs right now.

So
ALP - 72
GRN - 1
Wilkie - 1
NXT - 2

With McGowan as Speaker? - equals 76+speaker vs 73 (LNP+Katter).

The reality is, the LNP needs to be at 74-75 to be able to be sure they can get over the line, the ALP can be as low as 71.

Wouldn't it be highly unlikely for Katter to go with Labor over the Coalition?  In which case, 74 for the Coalition for them should be enough, since adding Katter gets you 75, and then wouldn't one of the other Indies most likely join them as well, to avoid a 75-75 tie?  I mean, are both NXT and McGowan really going to *not* support the Coalition+Katter if Coalition+Katter already have exactly 50% of the seats, and thus have blocked out any possibility for Labor to command a majority?  Or are we really going to be stuck with an electoral tie, and a complete deadlock on who can form a government?

[Talleyrand]

The Coalition has taken the lead in Forde, bringing them to 74 seats. They're extremely likely to take Flynn and Capricornia, while Herbert and Hindmarsh look like decent chances too. They'll have a 76-78 seat majority in the end.

[morgieb]

In other news: http://www.theaustralian.com.au/federal-election-2016/federal-election-2016-cory-bernardi-forms-conservative-political-movement/news-story/2645ac0c469cf40c3b69b78924fcb70d

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Please let this be true. Please.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The Coalition has taken the lead in Forde, bringing them to 74 seats. They're extremely likely to take Flynn and Capricornia, while Herbert and Hindmarsh look like decent chances too. They'll have a 76-78 seat majority in the end.

It's still way too early in the count. The first batch of postals were HORRIFIC for the ALP, then next clump was better (note I said better, not good). Such as in Herbert which started at 65-36, and now is 57-43.  We'll just have to wait and see.

My gut is that we'll see something about the expected result of the LNP on 74-76. The other thing to remember is that if the margin is still close-ish, the Labor is favoured in absentee, provisional and declaration votes.

[Ebowed]

Labor Party continues to lead the nationwide popular vote.

Malcolm Turnbull doesn't have a clue, doesn't have a mandate, and doesn't enjoy the majority support of the country.  Pathetic.

[morgieb]

The view from my perspective for the remaining seats in doubt:

Capricornia - Labor ahead by 902 votes on ordinary votes with a Special Hospital Team booth missing. Traditionally the Liberals do very well on postal votes here, but they're only leading them 54/46 off about 2000. Will be very tight unless future postals are very bad (possible). Too close to call.

Cowan - Labor ahead by 986 votes on ordinary votes with a Special Hospital Team booth missing. Unlike Capricornia though there isn't such a big trend towards the Liberals on the postcount. So far the Liberals are leading 55/45 off about 2250 formal postal votes. Labor should win it barring a huge surprise on future postals or absentees.

Flynn - Labor ahead by 2058 votes on ordinary votes with all booths in, so on paper you think Labor should hold. However, the seat has a huge bias towards the Liberals on the postcount, and this election is proving no exception - the LNP are ahead 64/36 off about 3500 formal postal votes. Will probably swing LNP barring a big recovery by Labor on the postcount, and history suggests that is unlikely.

Forde - Labor ahead by a threadbare 24 votes on ordinary votes with all booths in, so it seems likely that the margin will be overturned on the postcount. And off about 2500 postal votes the LNP are leading 56/44. Will be hard to overturn the margin for Labor, but if they can ebb the bleeding on postals a traditional Labor advantage in absentee votes (most of them tend to be cast in the north of the electorate, which is far more Labor leaning than the rural conservative south) it could be salvagable.

Gilmore - Liberal ahead by 353 votes on ordinary votes with 7 Special Hospital Team booths left outstanding, so that seems hard to overturn given the general Liberal bias in a postcount. So far off over 4000 votes the Liberals are winning postals by 58/42. Barring something very weird happening this will stay Liberal.

Herbert - Labor ahead by 941 votes on ordinary votes with all booths in. Seems secure enough but postal votes have ran 57/43 LNP off over 2000 of them. It's possible that this trend might deteriorate as the count goes on, and it could be cancelled out by a good absentee or provisional performance by Labor. But in any case this does not look like the formality it did a couple of days ago. Like Capricornia, this is too close to call.

Hindmarsh - Labor ahead by 629 votes on ordinary votes with 2 booths outstanding. Off nearly 6000 postal votes the Liberals are leading 54/46. As it stands I'd rather be in Labor's camp here, but a change in how the postal votes are swinging or less absentee votes than usual (in this electorate there are traditionally quite a lot of absentee votes which means that the postcount doesn't swing all that hard to the Liberals in contrast to other electorates) could change that. Labor ahead but an upset wouldn't surprise me.

Melbourne Ports - the wildcard. Looks safe Labor on paper, but they only lead the Greens by 1251 votes off ordinary votes on first preferences, and it's possible that margin will be chased down with left-leaning preferences, of which Melbourne Ports have a few. If the Greens do overtake them then the seat is a lottery - on paper you'd expect Labor preferences to get the Greens over the top (it did in Prahran in the 2014 state election) -  but Melbourne Ports has a high Jewish population that is anti-Greens but has a personal vote for Danby which makes the potential for Liberal leakage higher and possibly giving them the seat. However postals have been pretty anti-Greens so far - off about 1500 postal votes they're only polling about 12% to Labor's 28%, so it may not be interesting when the 3CC vote is determined. All things considered, Labor have to be favourites to hold this.

So the current totals are 72-65-5. Adding Gilmore to the Coalition and Melbourne Ports to Labor gives 73-66-5. Adding Cowan to Labor gives 73-67-5. Adding Flynn and Forde to the Coalition and Hindmarsh to Labor gives 75-68-5. So the result probably comes down to Capricornia and Herbert. So while Turnbull will likely form government, it remains to be seen whether it's a majority or a minority government.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Who will be installed as speaker? A crossbencher? An ALP defector?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

More than likely, if the Coalition form Government, which is pretty much guaranteed at this point, I think they'll stick with the current speaker, rather than trying to install a cross-bencher.

[rob in cal]

  Ok, I'm happy now.  Flynn has been put in the seats in doubt category by ABC.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

  Ok, I'm happy now.  Flynn has been put in the seats in doubt category by ABC.

That makes you happy?

[rob in cal]

  My sense of the world being in balance is upset when a winner has been prematurely declared for a seat that will clearly be real close at the end.