Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016

[BigSkyBob]

Hindmarsh is within 9 votes now.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Bob Katter throws support behind Coalition, if they do not gain a majority.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Bob Katter throws support behind Coalition, if they do not gain a majority.

This is a given... but also does the expected, "I reserve my right to change my mind" thing.

[Knives]

Katter also said attacks on unions would see him withdraw support - so ABCC is deffo never happening.

[Phony Moderate]

He took note of the swing in his division in 2013 then?

[Bacon King]

Labor's lead in the national two party count has shrunk to less than 500 votes

[jaichind]

Did not NXT also indicated that they are open to supporting L/NP?  L/NP is ahead in 74.  74+2 = 76

[Ebowed]

Labor's lead in the national two party count has shrunk to less than 500 votes

Back up to 12,000

Looks like a majority of The People do not support the reckless and chaotic Abbott-Turnbull-Katter Government.  Sad!

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Labor's lead in the national two party count has shrunk to less than 500 votes

Back up to 12,000

Looks like a majority of The People do not support the reckless and chaotic Abbott-Turnbull-Katter Government.  Sad!

The Libs are now up by 70 votes. 70 votes out of just under 10.4 million...  They were always going to win the TPP, but remember, Gillard's winning TPP margin in 2010 was 34,000.

EDIT: Now it's 193 in favour of Labor.

But let me repeat this point. It looks like the swing will be somewhere about 3.2-3.4% still the second highest TPP swing against a first-term Government since WWII. Only Howard's GST election in 1998 was higher AND that had a significant and unpopular tax reform attached to it... wtf did Turnbull gain from this spanking?

The point to remember is that 76, even 77 seats is still a DISASTER for the Turnbull agenda. The Senate is even worse for him, it looks like the centre-left and centre will actually control the Senate.

[Vega]

Had Turnbull called an election in the (Australian) summer of 2015, he probably would have gotten at least a big a majority as he had. Bet he's kicking himself for that.

[MaxQue]

Had Turnbull called an election in the (Australian) summer of 2015, he probably would have gotten at least a big a majority as he had. Bet he's kicking himself for that.

I'm not sure he could have called a Senate election yet at this date (and nobody wants Senate elections to desync, as it transform them into protest standalone elections, which is terrible for passing laws).

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Had Turnbull called an election in the (Australian) summer of 2015, he probably would have gotten at least a big a majority as he had. Bet he's kicking himself for that.

Yes, the issue is however, not that reason for the Double-Dissolution is usually a big deal during the campaigns, but if Turnbull wanted a DD even as late as March (which he would have won) he would likely have needed to use an Abbott-era climate change Bill as the trigger, he would have been eaten alive for doing that. Turnbull needed his own trigger, he wanted the Senate voting reforms (slow clap for that one)... so he was kind of trapped in a f*** up of his own making.

[Lachi]

Update on TTP: (as of 11:17 AM, July 8th)
LAB-5,151, 873/ 50.06%
LIB-5,139,700/ 49.94%

LAB +12,173 votes, Swing +3.35%

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Update on TTP: (as of 11:17 AM, July 8th)
LAB-5,151, 873/ 50.06%
LIB-5,139,700/ 49.94%

LAB +12,173 votes, Swing +3.35%

Liberal/National Coalition   5,199,066   50.00   -3.49
Australian Labor Party   5,199,351   50.00   +3.49

This is what the AEC has up now.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

First batch of absentees in Forde are breaking strongly to Labor. However, there's 4,700 uncounted postals and only 1700 absentees remaining.

[Oak Hills]

What is a "Special Hospital Team booth"?

[morgieb]

What is a "Special Hospital Team booth"?

Essentially, they are people that organise voting for people currently in hospitals that aren't necessarily in their electorate and can't get to a voting place.

At least that's what I think.

[Ebowed]

The point to remember is that 76, even 77 seats is still a DISASTER for the Turnbull agenda.

Of course, given that his entire economic plan was classic "starve the beast" unfunded tax cuts, this is a major relief for budget watchers, although you'll never hear the Liberals admit it.  They have admitted that they need to stop cutting health and education funding, so I guess that means it will take a few months before they re-announce their uni deregulation policy?  Lol.

[Lachi]

Labor is leading in Flynn by 7 votes currently (Correct at 23:51, July 8th)

[IceAgeComing]

Seems like below the line votes might affect which Labor or Liberal candidates get elected is Tasmania: both major parties pushed incumbent Senators down in their list, but they seem to have managed to get enough below the line to actually eliminate candidates above them on the ticket below them.  I wonder when the last time that happened was?

[RogueBeaver]

Green predicts the Coalition will win 76 seats, plus or minus 1.

[BigSkyBob]

LNP takes 131 vote lead in Flynn.

[jimrtex]

In this table:

First preferences by vote type

What are "Ticket Votes" and "Unapportioned"

Are "Ticket Votes" an Above-The-Line first preference for the group; and "Unapportioned" a Below-The-Line first preference for one of the candidates of the group?

Ticket Votes are generally 20%-25% of the votes for the group.

A few exceptions are:

Smaller Parties with full slates of 12 candidates (Greens and Christian Democrats) had Ticket Votes in the teens. But ALP and Coalition were in the typical range.

Science Party/Cyclist Party was in the teens - perhaps voters could make no sense of the joint group.

One Nation was over 30%.

[Smid]

In this table:

First preferences by vote type

What are "Ticket Votes" and "Unapportioned"

Are "Ticket Votes" an Above-The-Line first preference for the group; and "Unapportioned" a Below-The-Line first preference for one of the candidates of the group?

Ticket Votes are generally 20%-25% of the votes for the group.

A few exceptions are:

Smaller Parties with full slates of 12 candidates (Greens and Christian Democrats) had Ticket Votes in the teens. But ALP and Coalition were in the typical range.

Science Party/Cyclist Party was in the teens - perhaps voters could make no sense of the joint group.

One Nation was over 30%.

Yes, Ticket Votes are the technical term for Above-the-Line votes (for the party/ticket, rather than for an individual candidate).

[Smid]

Booth results in SEQ (primary vote plurality)

Obviously, these are still preliminary, since recounts continue.

As always, bigger version in gallery.