Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Hahaha this antipaedo senator apparently slept with a teenager when he was in this thirties ,

[Хahar 🤔]

Booth results in SEQ (primary vote plurality)

Obviously, these are still preliminary, since recounts continue.

As always, bigger version in gallery.

The Voronoi diagram is a really interesting way of presenting this data! I don't know if I've ever seen that before.

[Vosem]

So, have you guys seen the Senate forecasts on the website blog.geeklections.com.au ? The author seems very bullish on preferences flowing to the Nick Xenophon Team -- he's very confident of Luke Bolton (the top WA NXT candidate) overtaking Rachel Siewert on preferences, and seems to think Aidan Dalgliesh (the NSW candidate) has a very real chance of defeating David Leyonhjelm for the last seat.

He also thinks a Shooters Senator is likely to be elected in Tasmania (God willing), but that forecast might be off because the very high levels of BTL voting aren't being taken into account, and only 1 Green Senator being elected off of 1.46 quotas seems like an unlikely result to me.

How likely are Bolton/Dalgliesh/Allen to actually win?

[Smid]

Booth results in SEQ (primary vote plurality)

Obviously, these are still preliminary, since recounts continue.

As always, bigger version in gallery.

The Voronoi diagram is a really interesting way of presenting this data! I don't know if I've ever seen that before.

I think our friend, Homelycooking, has done that a bit, which is where I got the idea. Antony Green also did it on his site a while back, but Homely definitely did it first. I just adjusted the transparency so you could see the electorate boundaries in the layer underneath, and also added in the points for the Lat/Long coordinates of the booths. I've been working on NSW and Vic tonight, although not quite finished. I'll upload maps once they're complete.

[jimrtex]

Booth results in SEQ (primary vote plurality)

Obviously, these are still preliminary, since recounts continue.

As always, bigger version in gallery.

Could you explain the demographics behind the voting patterns?

There is a strong ALP vote along an east-west axis. Is that in Brisbane? Then to the north of that it begins trending Coalition. But north of that along the coast is an area that is more mixed, with a small ALP advantage. But the coastal area north of NSW is Coalition. Has Queensland had an influx like in Florida and California where the population was attracted by the climate (once air conditioning was available).

Why is there the concentration of support for One Nation to the west? Banjo Belt? To the west of that there is a small concentration - some sort of regional center?

And then the rural areas are Coalition.

[homelycooking]

I was too lazy to do actual Voronoi diagrams in my 2010 map. My method has since been improved upon, as Smid notes. The boundaries below are merely Voronoi-esque:

I also attempted to simplify the map by aggregating booths located within a single suburb or locality.

Mapping the whole of Australia in this fashion was such a massively frustrating undertaking that I probably won't ever do it again. But maybe some metro area maps could be in the works if I can tear myself away from the dartboard for a while.

[libertpaulian]

According to the BBC alert I just got on my phone, Shorten has conceded.  Turnbull will remain the Prime Minister.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Yup - Shorten conceded, but it was only a matter of time.

[jimrtex]

So, have you guys seen the Senate forecasts on the website blog.geeklections.com.au ? The author seems very bullish on preferences flowing to the Nick Xenophon Team -- he's very confident of Luke Bolton (the top WA NXT candidate) overtaking Rachel Siewert on preferences, and seems to think Aidan Dalgliesh (the NSW candidate) has a very real chance of defeating David Leyonhjelm for the last seat.

He also thinks a Shooters Senator is likely to be elected in Tasmania (God willing), but that forecast might be off because the very high levels of BTL voting aren't being taken into account, and only 1 Green Senator being elected off of 1.46 quotas seems like an unlikely result to me.

How likely are Bolton/Dalgliesh/Allen to actually win?

He linked to a couple of websites which would help you prepare your ballot. On one you could select parties that you might be inclined to vote for, and then rearrange parties and candidates, and it would produce a ballot-like image.

Are you permitted to take these with you to the voting booth?  Do parties also prepare these?

I doubt that many voters understand how their ballot is actually distributed. If someone votes a lot of minor party candidates, it won't transfer 37, 38, 39, 40, etc.  It will transfer 37, and then skip over a bunch of excluded candidates to 43, etc.


His model seems reasonable enough, given the lack of experience with the new system. Voters might behave like they do in NSW. But maybe they won't. There was likely more news coverage of something that was part of a national election.

In NSW there was a strong tendency to vote the minimum required below the line. So supporters for  the larger parties are likely to vote for their party and quit. If someone votes 1-12 for ALP, will they go ahead and vote 13-24 Green? Or will they start hopping around, so that their Green Party preference s will either have been elected or excluded?

If you decide not to vote for ALP or LNP or Greens or anything like a conventional party, are you going to find 20 or 30 candidates to vote for and then place ALP (etc.) at 31-42?  I am dubious.

So I think there will be a hemorrhage of exhausted ballot (exhausted will probably be the true 10th candidate elected, with 11, 12, and 13 not reaching quota but being declared winners. I also believe that someone who votes bunches of candidates from many parties below the line is not going to vote too consistently, and may be somewhat attracted to personality, or celebrity, etc. Some voters probably see the groups as 20 different variants of the OMRLP.

His initial estimates for each state were based on guessed support. I don't think NXT performed as well as expected outside of SA. His Live Senate predictions are based on the actual reported first preference, along with his predicted preference flows.

It is pretty easy to forecast about 11 seats in each State, so his forecast may actually only be of the last seat:

NSW: LNP 5, ALP 4, Gre 1, ON 1, (other 1)
Clement says the last will be NXT or Liberal Democrat

VIC: LNP 4(?), ALP 4, Gre 1(?), Hinch 1, (2 with a reasonable chance that one or both will be LNP and/or Gre)
Clement is pretty sure it will be LNP 5th, and Gre 2nd

QLD: LNP 5, ALP 4, ON 1, Gre 1, (other 1)
Clement is almost certain on Liberal Democrat. I think this a bit bullish for starting at 0.35 quotas

WA: LNP 5, ALP 4, Gre 1(?), ON 1, (other 1, with possible Gre)
Clement is very strong on NXT, and somewhat skeptical on ON

SA: LNP 4, ALP 4,  NXT 3, Gr 1.
Clement agrees

TAS: ALP 5, LNP 4, Gr 1(?), Lambie (1), (other 1, with possible Gre).
Clement is very strong on Shooters, Fishers and Farmers. But starting at 0.17 quotas requires a lot of favorable growth

The personality groups (NXT, Hinch, Lambie) seem to have done particularly well, which makes the other predictions easier since their support is likely coming from preferences that would be scattered.

[Smid]

Booth results in SEQ (primary vote plurality)

Obviously, these are still preliminary, since recounts continue.

As always, bigger version in gallery.

Could you explain the demographics behind the voting patterns?

There is a strong ALP vote along an east-west axis. Is that in Brisbane? Then to the north of that it begins trending Coalition. But north of that along the coast is an area that is more mixed, with a small ALP advantage. But the coastal area north of NSW is Coalition. Has Queensland had an influx like in Florida and California where the population was attracted by the climate (once air conditioning was available).

Why is there the concentration of support for One Nation to the west? Banjo Belt? To the west of that there is a small concentration - some sort of regional center?

And then the rural areas are Coalition.

I'll update the map down the track - I think it might be better to switch the order around, so that the booth strength is more vibrant, and make the boundary map transparent/no colour over the top, which will mean that the electorate boundaries are a bit darker. I'll also change the Hanson colour, since I typically use that yellow colour ramp for the Nationals (and while that's not a factor on the Queensland maps, it makes it confusing to compare other maps from the same election).

I'll discuss the voting patterns, as you've asked, but you'll probably want to refer to Google Maps regarding place names. One thing to note before we get started, remember that these are primary vote plurality - in some areas near the downtown, the left vote is split between the Greens and Labor. In some of the rural areas in Wright and possibly Blair, the right vote is split between the LNP and Hanson. Some of the voting patterns may shift once I post 2CP maps (I've done a bit of work on them, but they haven't finished these counts in some of the electorates where it was unclear who would finish second vs third).

The East-West Labor vote is typically just to the South of Brisbane, starting at about Beenleigh, in the East (maybe South-East), through to Ipswich in the West. The strong Labor area near the centre of this band is Inala. The strong Labor area in the East is Woodridge/Slacks Creek and probably down to Marsden. These areas have all been traditional Labor-voting areas. Ipswich itself is in Blair (the N-S aligned seat with many Labor booths in the South, although it used to be in Oxley (the seat that looks a little like "^" just to the East of Ipswich. The Eastern half of Oxley is within the Brisbane city limits, the Western half is in Ipswich. The next seat to the East is Rankin, which is based predominantly on Logan city. Ipswich and Logan can really be considered part of "Greater Brisbane" - they are linked to Brisbane by freeways and commuter railway lines. The electorate to the North of Oxley and Rankin is Moreton. The Labor vote in the middle is around Rocklea and Moorooka, and up through Yeronga and Yeerongpilly.

Demographically, as I noted, the East-West band has been traditional Labor, Moorooka and Yeerongpilly and up to Dutton Park (this is where we start heading up into Griffith) had a sizeable community of Sudanese refugees settle there during the Howard era. Western Yeronga, however (the area in the bend of the river), is relatively "leafy" - tree lined streets, large blocks with renovated houses. The riverfront end obviously has river views. As you head further North, into Dutton Park and West End and Highgate Hill, these were traditionally inner-city Labor areas, which have now become more popular with uni students. The Liberal-voting areas to the West across the river are traditional Liberal areas, but also have many uni students (University of Queensland is there). You'll note the particularly strong LNP areas in the Western suburbs of Brisbane. This area is hilly, tree-filled, with large blocks and is quite affluent.

At the Eastern end of the Brisbane electorate, you can see Ascot/Hamilton/Clayfield. This area is again quite affluent, the horse race tracks are there, the houses are older Queenslanders that have been renovated inside (Google image search that housing type - or look on realestate.com). Again, quite a wealthy area. Back in 1996, this area was in Lilley, and West End was in Brisbane - which is why in Howard's landslide, Lilley and Griffith both went Liberal, but Brisbane stayed Labor, whereas now Brisbane is a Liberal seat and Griffith and Lilley are both in Labor hands. That's not a gerrymander allegation, just an observation. The current boundaries are probably more natural.

You can see the area around Bulimba (across the river from Hamilton), which has gentrified over the last... fifteen years, I'd guess, give or take a few years. The Labor areas in Lilley and across the river in Bonner are both industrial areas (as you might be able to gather from the lack of polling booths in the area, which are a defacto indicator of population density), and traditionally Labor. The mid-sized island at the mouth of the river is the Port of Brisbane. The strong Liberal area in the centre of Bonner is probably the "bible-belt" of Brisbane, in the somewhat-affluent, suburban manner, (as opposed to the Appalachian version).

Heading further North, the peninsula is Redcliffe, which is not part of Brisbane city (although is part of the Greater Brisbane area). It's been a long while since I've been in the area, I think the Northern end of the peninsula is affluent, the Southern end less so, but it may have been gentrifying. At the North-Western base of the peninsula, there are Labor voting suburbs. It may seem strange to have coastal Labor areas like this (compare with, say, Sydney's Northern beaches), but I think this area is more mudflat rather than beach. It may be similar on the South-Eastern base of the Redcliffe peninsula, around Sandgate. Like I said, I haven't spent much time in that area, there are many better beaches to visit if you live in Brisbane.

The cluster of booths North of this is Caboolture, in the heart of the Longman electorate. Commuter rail goes to Caboolture, although it extends North to the Sunshine Coast (but I believe runs to the Sunshine Coast on a less-frequent timetable). Bribie Island used to be holiday homes, I think, but has had a good deal of construction growth in the past twenty years, I guess. The mainland across from the Northern tip of Bribie is Caloundra, which is the Southern end of the Sunshine Coast. Further up the Coast is Maroochydore, and continues North to Coolum. That Hanson booth in the hinterland up there is probably around Kingaroy, I would guess, which was where Sir Joh had his peanut farm. Or maybe it's Gympie. Anyway, it's somewhere up that way.

Down South from Brisbane is the Gold Coast. It's commercialised, has a casino, many retirees, and is quite developed, especially around Surfers Paradise and Broadbeach.

The small concentration of votes in the West is the town of Toowoomba (the first "oo" is like "spoon", the second "oo" is like "book", Too-woom-bar). The University of Southern Queensland is located there. It's probably about and hour-and-a-half drive from Brisbane, you'd be unlikely to commute to Brisbane on a daily basis. It has an annual flower show, and is quite a pretty town. It's up the range, so you have to drive uphill to get to it.

The Hanson area there, I think I sort of covered it up above, but yeah, it's rural but not especially wealthy rural. Others would certainly make comments about banjos, although I won't say that. Some of that area is actually quite pretty countryside - I went through there to visit some wineries over Christmas - I didn't expect to find any nice wine there, but some of it was quite good, they were growing grapes I hadn't heard of but that had been selected due to the warmer climate in the area. The man behind the bar at the cellar door of the first place had a bushman's beard (and was not a hipster) - the North American image would be of a lumberjack.

[Antonio the Sixth]

When will we know the final seat tally at last?

[Phony Moderate]

When will we know the final seat tally at last?

August 27th 2034.

[Harry Hayfield]

Labour concede http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-36757307

[Smid]

Greater Sydney

[Ebowed]

Labor at 50.06% of national 2pp, retaking the lead.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Labor at 50.06% of national 2pp, retaking the lead.

Not according to the AEC.

National two-party preferred
Turnout: 72.11%
Party / Coalition   Votes                         Vote %   Swing %
Liberal/National Coalition   5,354,596   50.13   -3.36
Australian Labor Party      5,326,493      49.87     +3.36

But, it seems there's been about a 2.3% increase in informal Senate ballots, code for "people didn't understand the new voting rules"

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Greater Sydney

Great maps as always, Smid!

Labor at 50.06% of national 2pp, retaking the lead.

Not according to the AEC.

National two-party preferred
Turnout: 72.11%
Party / Coalition   Votes                         Vote %   Swing %
Liberal/National Coalition   5,354,596   50.13   -3.36
Australian Labor Party      5,326,493      49.87     +3.36

But, it seems there's been about a 2.3% increase in informal Senate ballots, code for "people didn't understand the new voting rules"

It's not that hard people... unless that many people were protesting/defacing their ballots? Unlikely if you ask me.

[rob in cal]

  I think it would be fascinating to see an Australian election in which they use the Irish system of PR, which I guess is more or less the senate system, for the House of Reps.  Greens, Pauline Hansonites, maybe some Bob Katter proteges, Nick Xenophone people, Nationals competing everywhere, plus Libs and ALP all running in 5 seat disctricts all over the country.  That would be awesome.

[Vega]

  I think it would be fascinating to see an Australian election in which they use the Irish system of PR, which I guess is more or less the senate system, for the House of Reps.  Greens, Pauline Hansonites, maybe some Bob Katter proteges, Nick Xenophone people, Nationals competing everywhere, plus Libs and ALP all running in 5 seat disctricts all over the country.  That would be awesome.

MMP, I assume you mean? Yeah, that would be interesting. I'd personally vastly prefer it to the Alternative Vote.

Though I guess elections would take even longer to count.

[BigSkyBob]

LNP pulls ahead by 930 votes in Flynn (50.59-49.41%.) ABC calls the race for LNP.  75 seats called for the coalition now. 

With Katter, that makes it semi-official.

[BigSkyBob]

In Capricornia, the LNP leads in the first batch of absentee ballots 597-588.

[Ebsy]

Still laughing maniacally at the Senate composition this time around. Democracy was a mistake.

[BigSkyBob]

ABC News projects another seat for the Coalition (Presumably Herbert.) That would be 77 seats.

[BigSkyBob]

ALP pulls ahead by 1% in Cowen.

Down to three.

[Lachi]

The L/NP has officially reached 76 seats, Labor is still predicted to have 69 seats.