Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016

[Antonio the Sixth]

Well this took a while to go downhill, but at last it didn't disappoint in in its disappointingness.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Well this took a while to go downhill, but at last it didn't disappoint in in its disappointingness.

Not really, Labor came back from a landslide three years ago and considering everything this is still a good result, even if not the ideal.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Well this took a while to go downhill, but at last it didn't disappoint in in its disappointingness.

Not really, Labor came back from a landslide three years ago and considering everything this is still a good result, even if not the ideal.

Considering the Coalition had the legacy of two years of Abbott to testify against it, Labor should have been able to win this. Just because Turnbull came in at the last minute shouldn't erase what happened.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Well this took a while to go downhill, but at last it didn't disappoint in in its disappointingness.

Not really, Labor came back from a landslide three years ago and considering everything this is still a good result, even if not the ideal.

Considering the Coalition had the legacy of two years of Abbott to testify against it, Labor should have been able to win this. Just because Turnbull came in at the last minute shouldn't erase what happened.

Australians are 'c' conservatives on the whole, we don't change governments readily (except QLD... obviously). Mix that into Labor not really being able to prosecute the two-pronged arguments against incumbents (they're bad and we'd be better).

Abbott's mess wasn't enough and enough people wanted to give Turnbull a chance.

[morgieb]

One interesting factor that I noticed but haven't really seen discussed anywhere was just how much of a class element there was to this election.

Like usually there's a class element towards most elections, but the Liberals position with working-class voters (or aspirational middle with working-class roots, which is a bit more accurate) was helped by a more populist tinge from Abbott and Howard. Unlike those two though Turnbull never looked comfortable playing the populist and mostly played up his business image. This had the effect of appealing him towards middle-class Liberal-leaning voters, but whatever "Howard battlers" exist mostly voted Labor in this election.

Examples are rife in all states.

In New South Wales, in Western Sydney we saw a double digit swing in Macarthur (although there were other reasons here that I didn't explain), but we also saw swings of 7%+ in the Sydney electorates of Watson, Chifley, Blaxland and McMahon, which would usually be very safe Labor seats, but due to issues with the Labor brand in Sydney the margins here were very depressed. It appears that this election has seen the margins there normalise. You also saw similar swings in seats like Paterson, Hunter and Whitlam outside of Sydney, and also margins in Kingsford Smith and Parramatta also returned to their usual level. Even Greenway managed a reasonable swing to Labor despite the fact that it probably would've flipped in 2013 if it wasn't for Jaymes Diaz. The only real exception in NSW to this class swing rule is Werriwa, which largely broke even from 2013 levels - probably because of a dodgy Liberal preselection in Fowler in 2013 (the swing in Fowler was smaller than neighbouring seats, too), and also because the Liberals nominated a very strong candidate - I expect a large swing there in the next election (will probably be 2018/19 as a majority looks all but certain for the Liberals). It also looks like the swing was a bit subdued in Shortland and Cunningham as well - but in the former's case it was an open seat as well.

Liberal seats though? I already touched on Macarthur, and Lindsay (which everyone hyped about as a "Howard battler" seat) had its bellweather record broken in this election. But when you look at the North Shore, the traditional Liberal heartland, you see some below par results for Labor. While open seats masked this a bit, as well as PM's/former PM's losing some shine, most of them had lower swings than the seats south of Sydney Harbour. And Bradfield and Bennelong had swings towards the Liberals. As did Cook, which while in the south of the Sydney Metropolitan Area is more similar towards the North Shore than the rest of Sydney.

Also, it's interesting that there appeared to be some Chinese appeal for Turnbull. Bennelong, Reid and Banks all either had swings towards the Liberals or below-average swings towards Labor, and all have an area in the seat with a high Chinese population. Indeed Reid was before Pauline Hanson (when it was known as Lowe, redistributions has changed the nature of Reid dramatically, which used to be further west and a very safe Labor seat) a Liberal-leaning seat, but due to lack to Liberal appeal with Asians it became a Labor-leaning one. Thanks to waterfront developments and also Liberal improvement with ethnic voters, this has moved back to its roots.

I'll add some more evidence/discussion later on...

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

In relation to the North Shore seats, it's been a slowly emerging trend that in many places the Greens are the second party. There are times when these seats swing, but since the stronger emergence of the Greens in the early/mid-2000s, Labor has been an afterthought. Those areas are as much anti-Labor, as they are pro-Liberal. There are times when they might not want to vote Liberal, but they certainly won't be voting Labor.

Plus, despite living in the area, Abbott was not considered part of their tribe and a lot of Liberal voters, who are socially moderate/liberal and more pro-business than anything else were always made very uncomfortable by his social crusader status.

[jimrtex]

Booth results in SEQ (primary vote plurality)

Obviously, these are still preliminary, since recounts continue.

As always, bigger version in gallery.

Could you explain the demographics behind the voting patterns?

There is a strong ALP vote along an east-west axis. Is that in Brisbane? Then to the north of that it begins trending Coalition. But north of that along the coast is an area that is more mixed, with a small ALP advantage. But the coastal area north of NSW is Coalition. Has Queensland had an influx like in Florida and California where the population was attracted by the climate (once air conditioning was available).

Why is there the concentration of support for One Nation to the west? Banjo Belt? To the west of that there is a small concentration - some sort of regional center?

And then the rural areas are Coalition.

I'll discuss the voting patterns, as you've asked, but you'll probably want to refer to Google Maps regarding place names. One thing to note before we get started, remember that these are primary vote plurality - in some areas near the downtown, the left vote is split between the Greens and Labor. In some of the rural areas in Wright and possibly Blair, the right vote is split between the LNP and Hanson. Some of the voting patterns may shift once I post 2CP maps (I've done a bit of work on them, but they haven't finished these counts in some of the electorates where it was unclear who would finish second vs third).

primary vote plurality - "primary" refers to first preference? Does a candidate other than the first or second on 1st preferences, ever win? Do they even finish second?

The East-West Labor vote is typically just to the South of Brisbane, starting at about Beenleigh, in the East (maybe South-East), through to Ipswich in the West. The strong Labor area near the centre of this band is Inala. The strong Labor area in the East is Woodridge/Slacks Creek and probably down to Marsden. These areas have all been traditional Labor-voting areas. Ipswich itself is in Blair (the N-S aligned seat with many Labor booths in the South, although it used to be in Oxley (the seat that looks a little like "^" just to the East of Ipswich. The Eastern half of Oxley is within the Brisbane city limits, the Western half is in Ipswich. The next seat to the East is Rankin, which is based predominantly on Logan city. Ipswich and Logan can really be considered part of "Greater Brisbane" - they are linked to Brisbane by freeways and commuter railway lines. The electorate to the North of Oxley and Rankin is Moreton. The Labor vote in the middle is around Rocklea and Moorooka, and up through Yeronga and Yeerongpilly.

There appear to be a lot of industrial areas. was this the result of a deliberate development policy? South Brisbane is more competive, so this would be more white collar or service workers,and not the wealthy who headed to the higher ground. Does Brisbane flood?

Demographically, as I noted, the East-West band has been traditional Labor, Moorooka and Yeerongpilly and up to Dutton Park (this is where we start heading up into Griffith) had a sizeable community of Sudanese refugees settle there during the Howard era. Western Yeronga, however (the area in the bend of the river), is relatively "leafy" - tree lined streets, large blocks with renovated houses. The riverfront end obviously has river views. As you head further North, into Dutton Park and West End and Highgate Hill, these were traditionally inner-city Labor areas, which have now become more popular with uni students. The Liberal-voting areas to the West across the river are traditional Liberal areas, but also have many uni students (University of Queensland is there). You'll note the particularly strong LNP areas in the Western suburbs of Brisbane. This area is hilly, tree-filled, with large blocks and is quite affluent.

Downtown is on the peninsula with the Botanic Gardens on the tip? Or is it Fortitude Valley? Are some of the bridges to the south side transit or pedestrian bridges, they seem narrow.

At the Eastern end of the Brisbane electorate, you can see Ascot/Hamilton/Clayfield. This area is again quite affluent, the horse race tracks are there, the houses are older Queenslanders that have been renovated inside (Google image search that housing type - or look on realestate.com). Again, quite a wealthy area. Back in 1996, this area was in Lilley, and West End was in Brisbane - which is why in Howard's landslide, Lilley and Griffith both went Liberal, but Brisbane stayed Labor, whereas now Brisbane is a Liberal seat and Griffith and Lilley are both in Labor hands. That's not a gerrymander allegation, just an observation. The current boundaries are probably more natural.

I had thought you wanted me to research "renovated inside". It appears that "inside" is used as a noun, "It has a nice renovated inside", rather than a preposition, "It is renovated inside". The houses with renovated insides appear to favor an open plan. Is this modern, and requires a tearing down of interior walls, and adding structural support; or is it characteristics of Queenslanders? The obvious characteristic of this type of house is the deep verandas (sleeping porches?), and the sometimes elevated foundation, both presumably to help circulate air before AC. But it would also help to have few interiors walls. The verandas would provide a visual expansion of space. What does "raising" refer to?

You can see the area around Bulimba (across the river from Hamilton), which has gentrified over the last... fifteen years, I'd guess, give or take a few years. The Labor areas in Lilley and across the river in Bonner are both industrial areas (as you might be able to gather from the lack of polling booths in the area, which are a defacto indicator of population density), and traditionally Labor. The mid-sized island at the mouth of the river is the Port of Brisbane. The strong Liberal area in the centre of Bonner is probably the "bible-belt" of Brisbane, in the somewhat-affluent, suburban manner, (as opposed to the Appalachian version).

I don't see an obvious way to get across the river from Bulimba, so was an area that was originally more affordable because of lack of access, or were these more for port workers, whose jobs have moved further east or been automated. I'm not sure I understand where the Liberal area in the center of Bonner is: Carseldine, Bridgeman Downs, Aspley?

Explain Belmont? It appears to be agriculture, but the lot sizes (farms) are too small, but they are too large for an ordinary suburb.

Does Brisbane have plans for another airport? One runway seems to be small for an isolated capital city, with international flights.


<Snipped Lots of Interesting Stuff, Because message over 11000 characters>

I was looking up some population data, and found that while Queensland and Western Australia had grown faster than NSW and Victoria, that this had been reversed in recent years. Is this a hiccup, or start of a new trend?

Queensland and Western Australia had doubled their population from about 1975-2010, while the other areas had required from around 1955-2010 (2.0% vs 1.3%)

I also had thought Brisbane was much more dominant population-wise. But even considering the metropolitan area it isn't. Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast are remarkably populous - around 500,000 persons each. Gold Coast is substantial enough to be hosting the Commonwealth Games.

Your map doesn't appear to include Rockhampton, Mackay, Townsville, and Cairns. Are these all LNP areas?

You mentioned Sir Joh. Since his Country Party was able to dominate both the Liberals and Labor, why have the Liberals and Nationals formally merged in Queensland. I would think that the opposite might be true since the Country Party had been more successfully. At the federal level the two parties aren't really partners.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Queensland and Western Australia were impacted by the mining boom which is now receding. In relation to Brisbane, most people refer to SE Queensland instead of Brisbane alone because of the both the population growth of both Gold and Sunshine Coasts as well as their increasing proximity. If you look on a map where the Northern Suburbs of the Gold Coast finish and the Southern suburbs of Brisbane start and vice versa for the Sunshine Coast they're almost contiguous.

[Smid]

Snipping for clarity and responding beneath your questions.

primary vote plurality - "primary" refers to first preference? Does a candidate other than the first or second on 1st preferences, ever win? Do they even finish second?

Yes, in the Australian context, primary vote is synonymous with first preference vote. Candidates can come from behind - the best example is likely to be Prahran from the 2014 Victorian election. The Greens finished third, pulled ahead of Labor into second place on "all other" preferences, then took enough Labor preferences to finish first on 2CP, on primary vote, the Liberal candidate had finished first with 44.8% of the vote. I believe 1998 federal election in Blair was similar, with the Liberal candidate defeating Hanson on Labor preferences, but I'm not certain whether he finished second or third (I think he came third and pulled ahead of Labor on minor party preferences, but I can't be certain).


There appear to be a lot of industrial areas. was this the result of a deliberate development policy? South Brisbane is more competive, so this would be more white collar or service workers,and not the wealthy who headed to the higher ground. Does Brisbane flood?

South Brisbane (the suburb) used to be industrial and voted accordingly. The 1974 flood impacted greatly on that area, and it never fully recovered, although I think that was because it had already been slated for urban renewal. The Government then built Wivenhoe Dam, partially for water supply but mostly for flood mitigation. In 1988, Brisbane hosted World Expo '88, which was built over much of that industrial area. After the Expo ended, the site was converted into Southbank, which is mostly public open space, with some restaurants and bars and the like. Since then, there has been urban development in the streets surrounding Southbank, with many apartments being approved. This has led to the white collar workers you note - probably plenty of IT professionals and the like, young, hip, etc. West End and Highgate Hill are somewhat more bohemian, some run-down older houses shared by students (I haven't been in a while, this might be out of date). A few years ago, Wivenhoe was full and there was a large amount of rainfall, leading to another major flood.

I can't really answer the development question about the industrial areas. I forgot to mention that the airport is also in Lilley, which also explains some of the large, less densely populated area on the North side of the mouth of the river.
 

Downtown is on the peninsula with the Botanic Gardens on the tip? Or is it Fortitude Valley? Are some of the bridges to the south side transit or pedestrian bridges, they seem narrow.

Yes - the downtown area is that peninsula. There is another Botanic Gardens on Mount Coot-tha (not competing, I think they're both owned by the Council). The narrow peninsula opposite the gardens and downtown is Kangaroo Point, which has nice apartments. This picture from a real estate website is a nice shot showing Kangaroo Point and the Storey Bridge in the foreground, downtown in the midground, with Southbank across the river to the left behind the city, and the sun setting over Mt Coot-tha beyond. Out of shot, to the right (at the end of the Storey Bridge), is the Fortitude Valley, which has been gentrifying for probably the last 15 years, but used to have a seedy reputation, street prostitution, etc. At the end of this peninsula is New Farm and New Farm Park. There is a theatre there, built in a refurbished power station.


I had thought you wanted me to research "renovated inside". It appears that "inside" is used as a noun, "It has a nice renovated inside", rather than a preposition, "It is renovated inside". The houses with renovated insides appear to favor an open plan. Is this modern, and requires a tearing down of interior walls, and adding structural support; or is it characteristics of Queenslanders? The obvious characteristic of this type of house is the deep verandas (sleeping porches?), and the sometimes elevated foundation, both presumably to help circulate air before AC. But it would also help to have few interiors walls. The verandas would provide a visual expansion of space. What does "raising" refer to?

Sorry, I'd been meaning for you to look for "Queenslanders" (as in the architectural style). I was specifically thinking of the "Interwar Queenslander" picture on the right hand side (in New Farm). You can see the garage door there, so it's been renovated, because originally they were built on stumps and that whole downstairs area would have been open (or more likely, behind boards like this one). As you note, the elevation allows for ventilation through the floorboards, due to the sub-tropic heat and humidity, along with the verandah, which yes, was used for sleeping when family sizes were larger.

Regarding your questions here, open plan is definitely something that is in favour at the moment, and has been for a while. It would have required the removal of interior walls, as you mention.


I don't see an obvious way to get across the river from Bulimba, so was an area that was originally more affordable because of lack of access, or were these more for port workers, whose jobs have moved further east or been automated. I'm not sure I understand where the Liberal area in the center of Bonner is: Carseldine, Bridgeman Downs, Aspley?

Explain Belmont? It appears to be agriculture, but the lot sizes (farms) are too small, but they are too large for an ordinary suburb.

Does Brisbane have plans for another airport? One runway seems to be small for an isolated capital city, with international flights.


Bulimba used to be working class/port workers, etc. There were ship-building facilities along the river there. I recall a large ship had just been built at the time of the 1974 flood, and broke its moorings and swung out across the river. They thought they might need to blow it up so it wouldn't create a dam, but they didn't need to resort to that.

Now the quickest way between Bulimba and the city would be via the CityCat - a high speed ferry service operated by the Council as public transport. It's quite popular with tourists, as it's a good way to see the city and it costs the same as a bus or train ticket.

Sorry, the Liberal centre of Bonner is around Carindale, and the Belmont area you ask about. Belmont and neighbouring Gumdale are acreages. Really, they're just large houses on large blocks, that were developed when that was probably near the edge of town. They'd be owned by professionals, I guess, who don't mind commuting (it's probably only five minutes to Carindale, and Carindale to the city, by bus, is only a little over half an hour.

I'm not sure about plans regarding the airport, it's been a long time since I lived up there. There is an airport on the Gold Coast, too, and since most tourists are heading to the Coast, that probably absorbs some of the air traffic.  

I was looking up some population data, and found that while Queensland and Western Australia had grown faster than NSW and Victoria, that this had been reversed in recent years. Is this a hiccup, or start of a new trend?

Queensland and Western Australia had doubled their population from about 1975-2010, while the other areas had required from around 1955-2010 (2.0% vs 1.3%)

Your map doesn't appear to include Rockhampton, Mackay, Townsville, and Cairns. Are these all LNP areas?

You mentioned Sir Joh. Since his Country Party was able to dominate both the Liberals and Labor, why have the Liberals and Nationals formally merged in Queensland.
[/quote]

As Polnut mentions, WA and Qld population growth was driven largely by the mining boom, which has since cooled.

In the 1970s and 80s, Queensland attracted retirees by abolishing estate taxes, so wealthy retirees moved up to avoid taxes when they slipped the mortal coil. This actually led to the other states abolishing estate taxes, in an example of competitive federalism.

As for those other cities - the top of the map shows the bottom of Fraser Island. Hervey Bay is a bit further North of there, a drive of about four hours from Brisbane. It's also only about halfway between Brisbane and Rockhampton, so to fit it in, I'd need to quite dramatically change the scale. People don't realise how large Queensland is - it's about 2.5 times the size of Texas in area. I can probably do smaller inset maps of those major population centres, though, I'll see how many booths are up there and whether it would be worth doing. Townsville is probably worthwhile, especially given how close Herbert is. Rockhampton is quite safe Labor.

The Liberals and Nationals competed against each other. Labor exploited this by introducing Optional Preferential Voting, which allows voters to number as many squares as they wish, rather than the previous compulsory preferential (like federal), where voters must number all of the squares. When One Nation further split the conservative vote in 1998, Peter Beattie ran a campaign with advertising heavily a strategy of "just vote 1." This tactic led to the merger, in order to stop the right-wing split. With the rise of the Greens, it is now the left that is split. Labor reintroduced compulsory preferential voting earlier this year.

[Smid]

Bigger map in the gallery, etc.

House of Reps primary vote plurality in Greater Melbourne.

[morgieb]

In relation to the North Shore seats, it's been a slowly emerging trend that in many places the Greens are the second party. There are times when these seats swing, but since the stronger emergence of the Greens in the early/mid-2000s, Labor has been an afterthought. Those areas are as much anti-Labor, as they are pro-Liberal. There are times when they might not want to vote Liberal, but they certainly won't be voting Labor.

Plus, despite living in the area, Abbott was not considered part of their tribe and a lot of Liberal voters, who are socially moderate/liberal and more pro-business than anything else were always made very uncomfortable by his social crusader status.

Yep, very good points. My overarching point though was similar to your second point, Turnbull is a far better fit for pro-business style Liberals than Abbott ever was.

[BigSkyBob]

The LNP has pulled ahead in Herbert by 34 votes.

[Lachi]

With 90.2% of the vote counted in Herbert, the LNP is ahead by 12 votes.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Oh ffs, this still isn't over?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Oh ffs, this still isn't over?

That's #stralia for you. When it is over there will be many many pretty maps produced by yrstruly though

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

With 90.2% of the vote counted in Herbert, the LNP is ahead by 12 votes.

Based on what's outstanding, it looks like the ALP might win by 10-15 votes. Automatic recount territory.

[Vosem]

Oh ffs, this still isn't over?

Except for those that reached a quota on Election Night, we still know basically nothing about the Senate composition.

[politicallefty]

Overall, an unfortunate result, though it's good to see how close Labor kept it. How does the Senate look right now? I'm seeing different things from different sources. From what I've gathered, it does look the Senate will at least be able to keep the Coalition on a leash (as if their bare majority didn't already do that), right?

Also, what's going to happen with marriage equality in Australia? I know Turnbull is a supporter, but he wants to go to the referendum route. Is there any chance circumstances (say, perhaps, a hostile Senate) forces the House to a full conscience vote?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Oh ffs, this still isn't over?

That's #stralia for you. When it is over there will be many many pretty maps produced by yrstruly though

Way to make the wait worth it!

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The ALP is now ahead in Herbert by 8 votes.

[Lachi]

The ABC's prediction computer has given Herbert to the ALP

Seat totals:
L/NP: 76 (-14) (majority of 2/1, depending on your definition in terms of seat counts)
ALP: 69 (+14)
GRN: 1 (0)
NXT: 1 (+1)
KAP: 1 (0)
IND: 2
PUP: 0 (-1)

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The ABC's prediction computer has given Herbert to the ALP

Seat totals:
L/NP: 76 (-14) (majority of 2/1, depending on your definition in terms of seat counts)
ALP: 69 (+14)
GRN: 1 (0)
NXT: 1 (+1)
KAP: 1 (0)
IND: 2
PUP: 0 (-1)

It's a working majority of one... lol, magnificent. Remember Wilkie, McGowan and Katter have only guaranteed supply and confidence.

[jimrtex]

Declaration of House of Representatives results

What is interesting is that there is an option to have the web page read aloud.

The state abbreviations of NSW, Vic, Qld, WA, SA, Tas, ACT, and NT are read as:

New South Wales
Victoria
Queensland
Waugh or Roy
Essay
Tasmania
Australia Capital Territory
Entee

Further down:

WA is pronounced as Washington

51 Cattley St
Burnie

is "51 Cattley, Saint Burnie"

Suite 14W-16W is "Sweet 14 DoubleU to 16 Watt"

5/1-3 Cornpark Circuit is "May 1 to 3"

16 July 2016 is read as July 16, 2016

Times are listed as 10.30am and read as 10 point 30 A M.  Is this conventional in Australia?

Are Level 4, Level 7, Level 13, etc. school buildings?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Is that even English?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The recount will commence in Herbert soon and is expected to take... a FORTNIGHT.