Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016

[Boston Bread]

Will most of the remaining seats be called in the next few hours?

The counting seems incredibly sluggish right now, sadly.

[Boston Bread]

Nationwide in 2013, the inclusion of non-ordinary votes (i.e. absent, provisional, pre-poll, and postal) only increased the coalition's first preference vote share by 0.14 points, and decreased Labor's by 0.44. Greens increased their vote share by 0.24, mostly due to a very strong performance among "absent" votes.

If so postals might not be able to shift any seats, resulting in a 72-72 tie. A net shift of 0.06 to the coalition on TPP wouldn't get them any of the close seats.

[Boston Bread]

Nationwide in 2013, the inclusion of non-ordinary votes (i.e. absent, provisional, pre-poll, and postal) only increased the coalition's first preference vote share by 0.14 points, and decreased Labor's by 0.44. Greens increased their vote share by 0.24, mostly due to a very strong performance among "absent" votes.

If so postals might not be able to shift any seats, resulting in a 72-72 tie. A net shift of 0.06 to the coalition on TPP wouldn't get them any of the close seats.

Look at the changes in the individual seats- that suggests Forde will almost certainly flip back to the Coalition and Capricornia probably will too. Assuming they hold on to Grey, you'd get a 75-70 result.

My 72-72 guess already has Forde and Capricornia with the Liberals, as AEC shows Liberals narrowly ahead in both right now. They can get to 73 with Grey.