Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016

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Quick, Malcolm!  Hold the election ASAP before your numbers slip even further!  The Australian people are too clever to re-elect you if you wait for much longer!

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Cross posting from AAD.

The underlying assumption behind virtually everything in the Budget is that if we create conditions more favorable to business, they will pass these benefits on to their employees and the community in general (trickle down economics). But we don't need businesses to have an easier time of ripping us off, and saving even more on their tax bill while nothing gets passed on (the reality of these policies), we need the government to take an active role in stimulating our declining economy and providing people with decent jobs, rather than expecting an army of "SMALL BUSINESSES" to contract people out who are so desperate that they are willing to work for half of the actual min. wage to deliver pizzas.

The ABC talking heads made mention of the fact that young people are more entrepreneurial than ever, which means that incentives for start-ups will be well received by this KEY DEMOGRAPHIC. The reality - staring them right in the face, but because they don't have people under 40 on these programs, forget about it - is that young people have figured out that they are getting a raw deal and that working for someone who doesn't care about you and is literally waiting for you to get sick so that they can fire you and replace you with someone who will be hired with less benefits is not a preferable course of action.

They keep bragging about "300,000 jobs added last year" but they are part time jobs that make up for the loss of an equivalent of lost full time jobs.  (Obligatory mention of the fact that the workforce is more casualised than ever, but that supposedly represents 'increased flexibility' or something ridiculous, no doubt)

Finance Minister Mathias Cormann was incredulous when asked why only upper middle income earners received a tax cut. "You think $80,000 a year is a high-income earner?" he snapped, unable to comprehend that that IS high income, that the average wage earner is making about $47,000 a year, and that the vast majority of Australians will not be positively impacted by this "TAX RELIEF" (one of my most detested terms in our Americanised lexicon).

His contention is that $80k is middle income for somebody who works full time. So it's interesting, the implication that full time workers are doing it toughest, but at the same time, not acknowledging that all of the new jobs being added are part-time because that's all anybody can get.

No mention of climate change or investment in clean energy; no mention of the looming closure of automobile manufacturers. No mention of housing affordability except to mock the idea of reigning in negative gearing by insulting renters with the notion that property investors are largely "working class."

More antagonisation for young people on income support, presented under the guise of being slightly less worse than the previous system in place. Let's be clear: giving employers a massive subsidy to hire people to work for $4/hr (which doesn't even come out of the business' pocket) is more of the same corporate welfare we've come to expect from these pricks.

They agreed to delay deregulating university fees until next year, which means wait for the election to pass and then spike up tuition to $100,000.

More hand-outs for defense, and staying the course on torture camps and "Direct Action" (literally paying corporations not to pollute).  And if you ask them why they didn't do anything for low-income people, they actually start talking about how they repealed the carbon tax.  Yes, they think we're that stupid!

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Shorten was the winner of the debate, in my view.  Turnbull had well rehearsed opening and closing statements but largely came across as a stammering, floundering fool who complained too much.  Shorten was classy, more polished, and better at sounding like he was giving a straightforward answer.

In one segment, Turnbull continued to whine about Labor wanting to "unilaterally" increase our carbon emissions target as though the international community would be angry that we were doing that faster than planned?  That's called exceeding your targets, Mr. Prime Minister.  It's not a surprise you haven't heard of it.

I believe Shorten summed up the debate well when he said that he genuinely leads his party while Turnbull's party leads him (even if it was a zinger related to their mutually awful policy on asylum seekers).

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I haven't followed any Australian stuff since the spill. Where did it all go wrong for Malcolm Turnball? Was it a case of the grass always being greener compared to TA?

I always warned that Turnbull was a deeply flawed politician. The drop in his net stats was steeper than during his disastrous time as OL. The big problem was that compared to Abbott he looked magnificent and brilliant and etc etc... the problem is the things that made Turnbull popular to a broad audience (his stances on climate action/same-sex marriage) are deeply unpopular to his base, so he's made deep compromises and a lot of people who were excited about him and where he might take his party, have disappointed people to an equal degree. Shorten's most potent line against him at the moment is "I lead my party, your party leads you".

Turnbull made deals with the devil to get the job, and now he's reaping the electorate consequences. Even if he can hold on, his standing will be severely weakened and he'll be even more ham-strung.

Yes, it's largely a reflection of the fact that the Liberals were elected to "clean up Labor's mess" of having an unstable, unruly, seemingly reckless government.  They weren't elected because their policies are popular - no, their policies are electoral poison, and Turnbull and co. haven't quite seemed to have figured this out (not to mention they've done nothing to assuage the perception that there is a revolving door in our Prime Minister's office).  This is why, only recently, Turnbull was talking about defunding public schools and hospitals and letting the state governments impose an additional income tax so that they could pay for these services, absolving Turnbull of the responsibility to raise taxes directly.  To put it mildly, this demonstrated a level of ineptitude that exceeded my own wildest expectations.

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"Put the Liberals where they put you - LAST"

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I'd rather we got to another election than work with the Greens.

Wow, really?

That reminds me, it's a good time to mention that one of the advantages to voting out the Coalition will be saving millions of dollars on a pointless, non-binding, divisive plebiscite on equal rights.

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I'd rather we got to another election than work with the Greens.

Wow, really?

That reminds me, it's a good time to mention that one of the advantages to voting out the Coalition will be saving millions of dollars on a pointless, non-binding, divisive plebiscite on equal rights.

The Greens have a reckless asylum seeker policy and limited understanding of free market economics, they don't deserve to ever being government. ... Their voters are largely people who will never face the difficulties of someone who survives on welfare

I wasn't going to respond to this since it appears we don't agree on much, but I just wanted to rebut the claim that greens are immune to economic policies that hurt the poor.  One of the precise reasons they are doing so well with under 30s is because of deteriorating employment conditions.  Our workforce is now more than half casual, with nearly all jobs added in the last year only part time.  We have a massive under-employment problem which the major parties are not yet willing to acknowledge.  It doesn't make sense that the only options available to someone in the hospitality industry are either 55 hours a week with no paid overtime, no holidays or sick leave, or 20 hours a week at a legal minimum wage but still without penalty rates* or the security that comes with working, at least, 35 hours.  On top of that, if you work part time in a major city, invariably more than half of your income now goes toward rent and transport costs.  So I suspect that economics are driving the support for the Greens a lot more than you think.

*Labor & Greens constant bloviating about protecting penalty rates is especially hurtful because it feels like our sector is being entirely ignored.  You really end up wondering if they think we actually DO get paid penalty rates, or if they just don't care about us because we're at the bottom of the food chain.

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Bill was so good on Q&A tonight.

Shorten was fantastic.  Even when he gave answers that I thought a bit weak, he presented himself well, sounded straightforward and decisive.

I'm very pleased that he will support negotiating a treaty with aboriginal nations and the presence of journalists at refugee detention centres.

It's no wonder that Turnbull wouldn't appear with Shorten on Q&A.  His floundering would have contrasted against Shorten in the worst possible way!

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Given how well Shorten is running his campaign, and how dismally, or perhaps "typical" Turnbull has been running his, I'm surprised they're still pretty much tied. There hasn't been an awful lot of movement since the beginning of the campaign.

No, if anything, I'm beginning to come to terms with the sinking feeling that the government holds on, although the Senate will likely not be as good for them.  Doesn't bode well for the prospects of that ABCC Turnbull is always blathering on about!

There's no doubt- the more we see of Turnbull, the less we like, and the more we see of Shorten, the more we like.  That's why the election is being held as early as it possibly could have been.  It looks like there is just enough of that incoherent "muh Labor big spending" sentiment to keep the deficit-happy Liberals in power.

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Are you guys paying attention to the youth unemployment figures?

Or, even more strikingly, the underemployment figures?

The idea that the Coalition are the "better economic managers" needs to die a quick, well deserved death.  I mean, for god's sake, Turnbull drones on and on about the transitioning economy and yet he doesn't even have a vision for what the economy will look like outside of the prospect of it being easier to be an enormous corporation.  It really insults our intelligence, to try to foist the discredited trickle down economics on us, and yet, it looks like people are stupid enough to buy it.  Wow.

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Re: Melbourne Ports

Danby is an enormous prick on a personal level (he doesn't seem to understand that when he writes incoherent, insulting comments to people via Facebook that they will invariably be distributed as screen shots, but his decision to preference the Liberals over the Greens may just cost him his seat:
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/federal-election-2016-liberals-poised-to-take-melbourne-ports-as-labor-slips-to-third-greens-polling-says-20160626-gpsc7l.html

My current electorate is Gellibrand.  ALP will win, obviously, but I'm confident that the Greens will improve on their vote share from 2013.  And like morgieb says, keep an eye on this one - will be competitive in about two elections.  (That being said, Tim Watts is a good MP and he will probably hold the seat as long as he wants it.)

Last I'd seen, the Greens were actually polling better in Batman than Melbourne.  (Like Danby, nobody will miss David Feeney.)  I don't think we will get over the top in Wills, although certainly response from people on the ground has been good - but I just don't think the numbers are there.  I would be shocked if we lose Batman, to tell you the truth.

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Any predictions for Senate?

Mess?

Indeed, which is amusing in light of the fact that the whole reason Turnbull called the election is because he couldn't get his construction industry scare campaign bill through the Senate.

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Questions for my fellow Australians. Taking off your psephological/analytical hat am I the only one who still thinks something feels 'off' about the conventional wisdom about this one? I don't think for a second that Turnbull is acting or messaging like someone who has this won.

It's not just you.  On Tuesday they trotted out Morrison to announce their third crackdown on 'welfare fraud' in 12 months.  Yesterday they dragged out Dutton to draw the link between refugees and terrorism.  And the week was largely spent discussing the issue of Whether Or Not Malcolm Turnbull Will Destroy Medicare, which is a bad sign for the Liberals.

They look and sound desperate.

The problem is that the numbers just don't seem to be there, that the footing the Coalition have is just too good, and I think that's a real tragedy.

It's clear, though, that Malcolm Turnbull, were he leading from opposition against a halfway relatively competent and especially articulate (or even just able to string a sentence together) leader, would not be a very formidable force.  Malcolm Turnbull on the campaign trail has proved to be highly awkward, very unlikable and an enormous grandstander who really doesn't think very highly of the Australian people.

[Ebowed]

Greens ahead in Melbourne, Batman and Wills.
Labor sweeping Tasmania outside of Denison.

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Looking like a hung parliament atm. Labor ahead in Wills again.

Keep an eye on Dickson.

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Michael Danby in 3rd in Melbourne Ports.

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Albanese should be careful.  The rank and file has gone from backing him in 2013 to supporting Shorten.  I prefer Shorten as do many other leftists who preferred Albo three years ago.

Shorten ran a very strong campaign and that's why the result is in doubt right now.  To throw out the person who got the Labor party this far is a slap in the face.

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Labor just pulled ahead in the National 2PP.

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When is Malcolm Turnbull going to resign?  He should be feeling pretty embarrassed after that hilariously terrible concession speech on Saturday night.

Australian Labor Party - 4,963,280 (50.23%)
Liberal/National Coalition - 4,917,543 (49.77%)

Face it, Malcolm - Australia hates you!

[Ebowed]

I'm fascinated at the prospect of a 76 seat Coalition government that has literally no mandate for anything except a plebiscite on equal rights.  They won't be able to get their corporate tax give-away or union busting legislation through the Senate.  They aren't going to be able to keep cutting health and education and their deficit will only blow out further as they keep trying to cut revenues.  They are hopeless.

One thing's for sure, people didn't vote for PM Tony Abbott or PM Scott Morrison and given the way Turnbull "leads" his party he is not going to last for much longer.

We could all save ourselves a lot of pointless hassle if Shorten gets to lead the government.

It's pretty striking how the media convinced everyone (including me) that the Coalition would win... because they said so.

In reality, Turnbull, who is basically Australia's Mitt Romney and his unskewed polling, should be taken with a grain of salt when he provides any numbers, or indeed, any statements at all. If we had treated his electoral confidence like his economic forecasts and budget modelling, we would have known that he was cooking the books, as always!

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States by popular vote so far...

Victoria
ALP - 51.92%  (+1.72)
LNC - 48.08%

New South Wales
LNC - 50.20%
ALP - 49.80%  (+4.15)

Queensland
LNC - 53.51%
ALP - 46.49%  (+3.47)

Western Australia
LNC - 53.19%
ALP - 46.81%  (+5.09)

Northern Territory
ALP - 58.02%  (+8.37)
LNC - 41.98%

South Australia
ALP - 56.97%  (+9.33)
LNC - 43.03%

Tasmania
ALP - 55.76%  (+4.53)
LNC - 44.24%

Capital Territory
ALP - 61.33%  (+1.42)
LNC - 38.67%

Nationwide
Australian Labor Party - 4,976,336 - 50.24%  (+3.73)
Liberal/Nationalist Coalition - 4,929,345 - 49.76%

[Ebowed]

Labor Party continues to lead the nationwide popular vote.

Malcolm Turnbull doesn't have a clue, doesn't have a mandate, and doesn't enjoy the majority support of the country.  Pathetic.

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Labor's lead in the national two party count has shrunk to less than 500 votes

Back up to 12,000

Looks like a majority of The People do not support the reckless and chaotic Abbott-Turnbull-Katter Government.  Sad!

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The point to remember is that 76, even 77 seats is still a DISASTER for the Turnbull agenda.

Of course, given that his entire economic plan was classic "starve the beast" unfunded tax cuts, this is a major relief for budget watchers, although you'll never hear the Liberals admit it.  They have admitted that they need to stop cutting health and education funding, so I guess that means it will take a few months before they re-announce their uni deregulation policy?  Lol.

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Labor at 50.06% of national 2pp, retaking the lead.