Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016

[Lachi]

Anyone care to explain how the poor and the working class (whites), vote for? Just curious.

Working-class voters are slightly more in Labor's camp than the Coalition's, but that is not the case everywhere, for instance, in my electorate, there are a lot of poor people and working-class voters, however they vote almost overwhelmingly Liberal.

[Lachi]

Anyone care to explain how the poor and the working class (whites), vote for? Just curious.

Working-class voters are slightly more in Labor's camp than the Coalition's, but that is not the case everywhere, for instance, in my electorate, there are a lot of poor people and working-class voters, however they vote almost overwhelmingly Liberal.

Ah ok, is there like any demographic data on that, I believe you, but want the exact numbers. What electorate do you live in, may I ask?

Nation wide, working class voters account for around 31% of voters, with most earning less than $1,000 P/Week. Their votes went as follows:
36% Labor
27% Coalition
24% Greens (I didn't except a voter share this high among the working class, I would have expected more Labor)
But here is the interesting part:
38% Others

I live in Murray, but I am not sure about percentages here, due to the lack of quality of the results when it comes to individual electorates.

[Lachi]

I think this will be one of the closest elections we have ever had if these polls continue till Election Day.

[Lachi]

I don't get why the Nationals have a candidate in my electorate when there was already a Liberal (Drum vs. McGauchie), because all that is gonna do is make the seat more marginal, and vulnerable, which is fine for me, since I would like to see another independent in the house (See: Fern Summer)

[Lachi]

Any predictions for Senate?

More Greens and NXT members

Also, my prediction (June 29)

LNP: 79
ALP: 66
GRN: 1
OTH: 4 (NXT+1)

[Lachi]

New Prediction:
(Assuming uniform swing, which is highly unlikely)

HUNG PARLIAMENT, LNP with plurality

ALP: 70
LNP: 74
GRN: 2
OTH: 4

GAINS:
ALP:
Macarthur
Reid
Deakin
Page
Robertson
Lindsay
Eden-Monaro
Banks
Brandon
Hindmarsh
Solomon
Lyons
Capricornia
Petrie
(Bonner, Gilmore, Corangamite, La Trobe, and Bass all on a knife edge, bonner being won by the LNP by 0.09%)

Others:
Greens (Batman)
NXT (Mayo)

[Lachi]

I should have a 2016 election map ready by around 11:30 PM tonight.

-Place holder for map links-

[Lachi]

It's looking like that the remaining seats will go to the current leaders

I also think it will be a hung parliament: 75-70, L/NP with plurality

[Lachi]

My local electorate of Murray now has a +30% swing to the Nationals

[Lachi]

Seats in doubt:

CAPRICORNIA: LAB ahead 50.4-49.6
FORDE: LAB ahead 50.4-49.6
COWAN: 50.1-49.9, LNP ahead on primary vote
PETRIE: 50.0-50.0, LNP ahead on primary vote

[Lachi]

My local electorate of Murray now has a +30% swing to the Nationals

Helps you didn't have a Nationals candidate in the last election

Lol, true

Also, forecast on latest results from in doubt seats takes the LNP to 76 exactly

[Lachi]

Seats in doubt:

CAPRICORNIA: LAB ahead 50.4-49.6
FORDE: LAB ahead 50.4-49.6
COWAN: 50.1-49.9, LNP ahead on primary vote
PETRIE: 50.0-50.0, LNP ahead on primary vote

Looks like ABC now has both Capricornia and Petrie as 50.0-50.0.

Petrie has now gone LNP

[Lachi]

The ABC has now proposed the real possibility of another election if the coalition cannot form a minority government.

also, MAPS!

Regional Victoria: https://gyazo.com/34c39793d46799fb0db3c8dec6eb48ec
Melbourne: Batman now in doubt again

Sydney: https://gyazo.com/c13ed44be1124fb3a0d46815bdf1b171
Regional NSW: https://gyazo.com/3eca6914183345e9dcc2a3f70a04da34

S.E Queensland: https://gyazo.com/4d0fe33a0cc2558c6132aec2b83f2eb8
Regional Queensland: Capricornia still in doubt

NT:https://gyazo.com/8232efa6ee6b036dc9ee5716b60c0425
TAS: https://gyazo.com/da0e99f0237a2628276d3b33b33fbcfc

Regional WA: https://gyazo.com/4914f9f4ea7792a0583cfaf3ec4de802
Perth: Cowan still in doubt

[Lachi]

Lines of the night

-the 311 bus route line
-Suck on that, Kerry O'Brien!

Also, Murray is finally the marginal seat it deserves to be

[Lachi]

Will most of the remaining seats be called in the next few hours?

We have to wait for the postal votes to be counted, which won't start until Tuesday

[Lachi]

HUNG PARLIAMENT, LNP with plurality

ALP: 70 (current projection: 72)
LNP: 74 (Current projection: 73)
GRN: 2 (did not pick up)
OTH: 4

GAINS:
ALP:
Macarthur
Reid
Deakin
Page
Robertson (Not called, LNP ahead)
Lindsay
Eden-Monaro
Banks
Braddon
Hindmarsh (Not called, LAB ahead)
Solomon
Lyons
Capricornia (Not called, LAB ahead)
Petrie (Not Called, LIB ahead)
(Bonner, Gilmore, Corangamite, La Trobe, and Bass all on a knife edge, Bonner being won by the LNP by 0.09%)

Others:
Greens (Batman)
NXT (Mayo)

Seats I did not call would go to Labor, but actually did:
Cowan (LAB ahead, but still in doubt)
Bass
Burt
Flynn
Longman
Macquarie
Herbert (In doubt, LAB ahead

[Lachi]

New projection from ABC:
ALP: 72
L/NP:72
GRN:1
NXT:2 (now ahead in grey)
OTH:3

[Lachi]

The Australian Electoral Commision now has the following seat totals:
ALP: 71
LNP: 67
NXT: 2
GRN: 1
KAP: 1
IND: 2

[Lachi]

Oakeshott is now AHEAD in Cowper according to the Guardian!?!?!?!?!?!

Remember, the two-party preferred count has only just begun today in Cowper, so, honestly, I think the nationals will hold there

[Lachi]

Update on TTP: (as of 11:17 AM, July 8th)
LAB-5,151, 873/ 50.06%
LIB-5,139,700/ 49.94%

LAB +12,173 votes, Swing +3.35%

[Lachi]

Labor is leading in Flynn by 7 votes currently (Correct at 23:51, July 8th)

[Lachi]

The L/NP has officially reached 76 seats, Labor is still predicted to have 69 seats.

[Lachi]

With 90.2% of the vote counted in Herbert, the LNP is ahead by 12 votes.

[Lachi]

The ABC's prediction computer has given Herbert to the ALP

Seat totals:
L/NP: 76 (-14) (majority of 2/1, depending on your definition in terms of seat counts)
ALP: 69 (+14)
GRN: 1 (0)
NXT: 1 (+1)
KAP: 1 (0)
IND: 2
PUP: 0 (-1)

[Lachi]

The L/NP are now ahead in Herbert by...














ONE F**KING VOTE! UGH!