Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016

[MaxQue]

I'm surprised it's not 53 or 54 for Turnbull.

[MaxQue]

Yes, they think we're that stupid!

Well, you elected them in the first place, so they are probably right...

[MaxQue]

Do the toaster thing and Turnbull being in Panama Papers is expected to have an effect on the campaign?

[MaxQue]

Is it possible there will be no majority in the House?

[MaxQue]

Apparently the Liberals are out spending Labor 5 to 1.

Not surprising, that's the payment of big companies and wealthy people for the tax cuts.

[MaxQue]

Had Turnbull called an election in the (Australian) summer of 2015, he probably would have gotten at least a big a majority as he had. Bet he's kicking himself for that.

I'm not sure he could have called a Senate election yet at this date (and nobody wants Senate elections to desync, as it transform them into protest standalone elections, which is terrible for passing laws).

[MaxQue]

I wouldn't add One Nation into the L/NP Coalition, the L/NP don't like them

It doesn't matter whether they "like" each other.  What matters is that the Turnbull-Hanson agenda is going to be disastrous for this country.

That's very disingenuous considering nothing can possibly get through the Senate without support from Labor, the Greens, or the NXT, who together hold sufficient votes to block any legislation (such as from, say, the "Turnbull-Hanson" agenda).

Turnbull-Xenophon would probably be more accurate.

Except the union bills, which only require passing the House and a common sitting of both houses.

[MaxQue]

I wouldn't add One Nation into the L/NP Coalition, the L/NP don't like them

It doesn't matter whether they "like" each other.  What matters is that the Turnbull-Hanson agenda is going to be disastrous for this country.

That's very disingenuous considering nothing can possibly get through the Senate without support from Labor, the Greens, or the NXT, who together hold sufficient votes to block any legislation (such as from, say, the "Turnbull-Hanson" agenda).

Turnbull-Xenophon would probably be more accurate.

Except the union bills, which only require passing the House and a common sitting of both houses.

114 votes would be needed to pass anything through a joint sitting; the Coalition has 106. One Nation has 4. Let's assume all 110 of those can be relied upon to vote in favor; that's still 110 and requires four more votes from somewhere. Xenophon can provide those votes, or alternatively Turnbull could turn to the crossbench, where Day and Leyonhjelm are probably sympathetic, while Lambie, Katter, and Willkie are all more left-wing on economic matters. If Hinch and McGowan can both be persuaded to come along, that does allow Turnbull to push through the legislation without ALP, Greens, or Xenophon support, but that is a very tight squeeze.

So, yeah, getting Xenophon onboard is still probably the path of least resistance even in the event of a joint sitting (and if Day, Leyonhjelm, Xenophon, and every PHON Senator does support it, it would be simpler to just push it through the regular Senate; if Turnbull does want to go the "appeal to individual independents" route then a joint sitting would have to be convened).

Except than joint sittings can only be used for the bills that were used for the double dissolution, namely the 3 anti-union bills. All other bills need to pass the House and the Senate.

Xenophon already indicated it would only support those union bills if they were amended in ways he liked.