Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016

[Phony Moderate]

A toss-up situation would possibly be bad news for the ALP; the incumbent government usually wins toss-ups at the federal level, whereas non-toss ups/big seat swings occur when the government is defeated (see 1975, 1983, 1996, 2007 and 2013).

[Phony Moderate]

Albo, though admirable, seems like too much of a fixer to be suitable for leader. Kind of amusing though that he and Pilbersek are seen as more electable than Shorten. None of this "we must appeal to the centre ground!!!11111" stuff down under it would seem.

[Phony Moderate]

Which was odd as Rudd did it to Beazley, Peacock did it to Howard, Keating did it to Hawke, Abbott did it to Turnbull etc.

[Phony Moderate]

Abbott could look to Keating in '93 for hope, though that election was really a GST referendum, no?

[Phony Moderate]

The good news for Shorten is that Keating never had a net positive approval rating and won the 1993 election with similar numbers to what he (Shorten) is getting now.

[Phony Moderate]

http://www.skynews.com.au/news/top-stories/2015/09/21/turnbull-gives-govt-12-point-poll-bounce.html

Morgan has the Liberals powearing into a 55-45 lead, up from a monster 43-57 deficit last time. Their primary vote is 48-29 up from 35-36 last time!

It's increasingly likely Turnbull will win an increased majority. Incredible turnaround.

How is an increased majority likely? That Morgan poll is, I think, by far the Coalition's best since the spill and it is only a slightly bigger lead than what was achieved at the last election.

[Phony Moderate]

Surely a lot of the boost has something to do with Turnbull simply not being Abbott.

[Phony Moderate]

I can't believe how much has changed in under 3 years - like did anyone actually believe Bill Shorten could be our next PM??? Even if Labor doesn't win, the Coalition are going to be incredibly weakened from massive losses and disunity.

Well, the ideas of PM Howard and PM Abbott were once absurd too.

[Phony Moderate]

It looks like both Labour/Labor parties are suffering from lackluster leaders Corbyn/Shorten. The fundamentals are certainly there for them to win.

And that's the only time Corbyn and Shorten will be compared.

[Phony Moderate]

Is it possible there will be no majority in the House?

Of course; the current prediction above only has to be one seat out for it to happen.

[Phony Moderate]

Final polls seem to be showing a very small, very subtle swing to the Coalition...

[Phony Moderate]

If Shorten gets toppled now, the ALP really needs to reform its leadership selection process.

They already did that.

[Phony Moderate]

He took note of the swing in his division in 2013 then?

[Phony Moderate]

When will we know the final seat tally at last?

August 27th 2034.

[Phony Moderate]

So I don't know how many more votes there are to count, but turnout appears to have 'only' been 91%, which is the lowest in a federal election since compulsory voting was introduced in 1924.