Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016

[Barnes]

There's always early election speculation in a first term especially, but I do agree it looks like there's a big chance of one soon.  If not, I'll be pretty disappointed!

Is there any chance this will end in a hung parliament? And, if so, how are the Greens doing? ALP will need them if they are going to have a victory.

At the moment, I don't think a hung parliament is likely, although that can quickly change as it did in 2010.  Of course, depending on whether or not there's a double dissolution (the only way to have a Senate election before July 2016) a Labor government will be heavily reliant on the Greens and the crossbench in the Senate.

[Barnes]

Wait, aren't they supposed to be reforming the senate to prevent wonderful mistakes like Muir?

That's the long-term goal, although no bill has yet to materialize as of yet. If Abbott wants an early election this year he can do one of two things regarding the Senate:
1. Have a House-only election and move the Senate and House elections out of sync; or
2. Have a double dissolution.

If he goes with option two (the more likely one), the Senate crossbench will most likely grow because of the lower quota.

[Barnes]

Quite a rush back to the Coalition, yes, but we all know the large personality following that Turnbull has amassed.  I must be honest, but I have yet to find him particularly impressive in the role, and the media darling track has been rather annoying.

Of course, I would say that in the face of numbers such as this, but these are very early days.  I still believe that there are deeper structural issues with Coalition support that will take longer than three days to repair, although Turnbull will be much more successful at doing so.