Australian Federal Election- July 2, 2016

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If only Labor were going to win an election with an actually decent, non-horrible leader. I can't shake the feeling that Shorten will snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

Imagine if Albanese was the ALP leader!

Yes, we would probably lose by more.

What makes you think that Polnut? I thought at the leadership election, Albanese was more popular with voters than Shorten.

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Prediction time! I'll organise by state/territory:

New South Wales

House
Banks - With the Georges River suburbs now safeish-safe Liberal, longtime member Daryl Melham gone, and David Coleman an established MP, Banks should stay Liberal in 2016.
Barton - With the redistribution taking away the better Liberal territory around Sandringham and Ramsgate, and into better Labor territory around Marrickville, this will be easily re-gained (notionally held) by Labor. Varvaris would have found it difficult to hold on the old boundaries.
Bennelong - John Howard's old seat, Liberal hold, unless Labor win in a landslide.
Berowra - The most interesting thing to watch here on election night is how much of a personal vote Philip Ruddock will take with him after 43 years.
Blaxland - Easy Labor hold.
Bradfield - Easy Liberal hold.
Calare - Easy National hold, although the likes of Lithgow/Bathurst may swing back to Labor significantly, given John Cobb's retirement.
Chifley - Easy Labor hold.
Cook - Treasurer Scott Morrison will be returned easily.
Cowper - Oakeshott will give Luke Hartsuyker a fright, but Hartsuyker should squeak back in.
Cunningham - Easy Labor hold.
Dobell - With the Craig Thomson saga in the history books, plus with the redistribution and corruption amongst former state MLAs for the area, Labor are slightly favoured to gain (notionally win) this. Incumbent MP Fiona McNamara should limit the swing though.
Eden-Monaro - Voting with the nation since 1972, Eden-Monaro almost broke its track record last election. Mike Kelly, Labor MP 2007-13, is running again, while incumbent Liberal MP Peter Hendy's margin was boosted over 2% in the redistribution. I think Eden-Monaro will break its bellwether record, and go back to Labor.
Farrer - Easy Liberal hold.
Fowler - Easy Labor hold.
Gilmore - One of the few seats in the nation to swing TO Labor in 2013, the Liberals should hold on, barring a Labor landslide.
Grayndler - Labor hold, unless the Greens surge in this inner-western Sydney progressive hotspot. Albanese's profile should ensure he's home safe here.
Greenway - The margin from 2013 is representative of the poor campaign of Liberal candidate Jaymes Diaz - Greenway swung over 2% to Labor. Perhaps the only seat the Liberals will gain in Sydney in 2016. Every election has upsets, and I'm going for an upset Liberal gain here, although this WILL be tight.
Hughes - Liberal hold, Hughes' demographics have become very Liberal family since Howard's 1996 victory.
Hume - Easy Liberal hold.
Hunter - Labor hold.
Kingsford Smith - Labor hold, although one to watch over the years, as the area is gentrifying and getting better for the Liberals.
Lindsay - Like Robertson, Penrith-based Lindsay has voted with Australia as a whole since 1984. Likely Liberal hold, considering the government will likely be returned.
Lyne - Easy National hold, particularly with the Rob Oakeshott saga well and truly in the past.
Macarthur - Russell Matheson's margin has been slashed in the redistribution, by removing Camden and adding areas north of Campbelltown, and will have to work hard to hold Macarthur. This will be a hot contest on the new boundaries, will Matheson be able to do what his predecessors John Fahey and Pat Farmer did, and win after an unfavourable redistribution? This will be competitive, but ultimately, I think Labor will squeak in here.
Mackellar - New Liberal candidate Jason Falinski will easily win.
Macquarie - If Labor win this, they'll most likely win government. Narrow hold for Louise Markus.
McMahon - Labor hold, although the area is not rock-solid for Labor anymore, as the last two state elections displayed.
Mitchell - Easy Liberal hold.
New England - With Tony Windsor, kingmaker in making Julia Gillard Prime Minister in 2010, coming back to try and win his old seat, Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce has a challenge on his hands... National hold ultimately.
Newcastle - Easy Labor hold.
North Sydney - Easy Liberal hold.
Page - Has gone with the nation since 1990, although the area trended away from the Nationals at the state level last state election. I expect former Labor MP Janelle Saffin to win back Page.
Parkes - Easy National hold.
Parramatta - Likely Labor hold.
Paterson - Likely Labor gain (notional hold), following the radical redistribution wiping out retiring MP Bob Baldwin's margin. On these boundaries, Paterson should be a Labor seat except for landslides.
Reid - The outer inner-west of Sydney (particularly areas on the river like Drummoyne and Concord) has been trending Liberal, and combined with Craig Laundy's strong performance as an MP, and areas around Auburn being removed in the redistribution, the Liberals are favoured in a tight contest.
Richmond - Likely Labor hold, next time the Coalition wins Richmond, the Liberals could be the larger conservative party in the area, given the growth of Tweed Heads.
Riverina - Easy National hold.
Robertson - Key contest, and like Lindsay, is a bellwether that has gone with the nation since 1984. At this point in time, I expect Robertson to stay blue.
Shortland - Easy Labor hold for Pat Conroy, member for the abolished seat of Charlton since 2013.
Sydney - Easy Labor hold.
Warringah - Former Prime Minister Tony Abbott will easily win again.
Watson - Labor hold.
Wentworth - Easy Liberal hold, particularly now the MP for Wentworth, Malcolm Turnbull, is Prime Minister. Expect a swing away from the Liberals though.
Werriwa - Labor hold.
Whitlam - Labor hold.

SUMMARY:
ALP gain from LIB: Barton*, Dobell*, Eden-Monaro, Macarthur, Paterson* (* indicates Labor notional hold/win)
LIB gain from ALP: Greenway
ALP gain from NAT: Page
Net gain/loss: ALP +5

Senate (WARNING: Expect my Senate predictions to be somewhat off, I haven't been following the Senate as closely as the house).
LIB/NAT - 5
ALP - 5
GRN - 1
LDP - 1

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Victoria

House
Aston - Liberal hold.
Ballarat - Labor hold.
Batman - Possible Green gain, although the Liberals are preferencing Labor, David Feeney has made quite the fool of himself.
Bendigo - Likely Labor hold.
Bruce - Likely Labor hold, although Alan Griffin's retirement has created an opening. This being said, the Liberals would have to work hard against the trend to gain Bruce.
Calwell - Easy Labor hold.
Casey - Easy Liberal hold.
Chisholm - Anna Burke's retirement has made an opportunity for the Liberals to get this marginal back. On state figures, this would be a marginal Liberal seat, although the trend is in Labor's favour nationwide. While the Liberal focus is on retaining Dunkley, La Trobe, Deakin and Corangamite, I think the Liberals will pull off an upset win here. Expect Chisholm to be a key target in future elections, particularly if the boundaries become more Liberal-friendly.
Corangamite - Likely Liberal hold.
Corio - Labor hold.
Deakin - Likely Liberal hold, Deakin is prone to small swings, and now contains the Ringwood area, making it better for the Liberals.
Dunkley - Likely Liberal hold, although Billson's retirement has made this more competitive than usual.
Flinders - Easy Liberal hold.
Gellibrand - Easy Labor hold.
Gippsland - Easy National hold.
Goldstein - Easy Liberal hold.
Gorton - Easy Labor hold.
Higgins - Liberal hold, while some booths around Prahran are good for the Greens, the Toorak, Malvern and Armadale blue-ribbon areas will ensure a comfortable victory for O'Dwyer.
Holt - Labor hold.
Hotham - Labor hold.
Indi - Independents tend to do better on their second election, and with Sophie Mirrabella back as Liberal candidate, Cathy McGowan should hold.
Isaacs - Labor hold, although the bayside suburbs are trending Liberal.
Jagajaga - Labor hold.
Kooyong - Easy Liberal hold.
La Trobe - Liberals favoured, Wood has lost the seat before, but won it back in 2013, and could lose again. One I'll be watching closely.
Lalor - Easy Labor hold.
Mallee - The safest seat anywhere in Australia, the Nationals will win easily.
Maribyrnong - Opposition Leader Bill Shorten will win easily.
McEwen - Likely Labor hold, given their incumbency and the large Liberal swing last time.
McMillan - Easy Liberal hold.
Melbourne - Green hold.
Melbourne Ports - Labor hold, and will be for as long as Michael Danby is member, keeping the Caulfield area 10% safer for Labor than at the state level. However, the seat is trending to both the Liberals and Greens alike.
Menzies - Easy Liberal hold.
Murray - With Sharman Stone retiring after 20 years, Murray is a wide open contest between the Liberals and Nationals. A close race will be expected, if I had to pick, I'd go for National Damian Drum, ex-AFL coach and incumbent member of the Victorian Legislative Council.
Scullin - Easy Labor hold.
Wannon - Easy Liberal hold, and expect this or Murray to be re-named Fraser next redistribution.
Wills - Likely Labor hold, with the main question here being how much the Greens gnaw off Labor's margin. The Liberals are preferencing Labor in this inner-city leftist hotspot.

SUMMARY:
LIB gain from ALP: Chisholm
GRN gain from ALP : Batman
NAT gain from LIB: Murray
Net gain/loss: ALP -2

Senate
LIB/NAT: 5
ALP: 4
GRN: 2
Derryn Hinch: 1 (my way-off prediction)

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Queensland

House
Blair - Labor hold, although Teresa Harding may get a swing back to the LNP.
Bonner - Likely LNP hold, unless the tide is truly in Labor's direction.
Bowman - LNP hold, Andrew Laming has done the hard yards here.
Brisbane - As long as the Ascot/Clayfield area is in Brisbane, it will be a competitive seat, the trends in other areas in Brisbane are also helping the LNP. With Teresa Gambaro retiring, this will be a key contest between the LNP and Labor candidates. Based on current polling and the government's current situation, narrow LNP hold.
Capricornia - Likely Labor gain, Capricornia may be trending LNP, but only leaves Labor's grasp in landslides like 1975, 1996 and 2013. The Coalition lost Capricornia in 1977 and 1998 respectively. Wouldn't be shocked if Landry holds in an upset though.
Dawson - George Christensen, one of the LNP's firebrand MPs (has a few Geert Wilders-esque traits), will likely hold, unless Labor are going for a big nationwide win.
Dickson - Likely LNP hold.
Fadden - Easy LNP hold.
Fairfax - Perhaps the most certain result in 2016 - the LNP will easily win this Sunshine Coast seat, and would even if Clive Palmer wasn't retiring.
Fisher - LNP hold, even with soon to be ex-MP Mal Brough caught in a scandal.
Flynn - Possible LNP hold, watch the Katter/Lazarus vote here.
Forde - Held by the government of the day since 1987 (2010 aside), Forde has a tendency to swing big, had a massive PUP vote in 2013, plus former Premier Peter Beattie was the Labor candidate in 2013. A true nailbiter, going for a narrow LNP hold.
Griffith - Labor hold.
Groom - Easy LNP hold.
Herbert - Likely LNP hold, expect Katter's Australian Party to do well.
Hinkler - Likely LNP hold.
Kennedy - Bob Katter will be easily re-elected, particularly with the LNP tide receding.
Leichhardt - Warren Entsch is a popular MP, and should be re-elected.
Lilley - Labor hold, Lilley only goes LNP in landslides.
Longman - Wyatt Roy should hold, although expect the margin to be close here
Maranoa - Easy LNP hold.
McPherson - Easy LNP hold.
Moncrieff - Easy LNP hold.
Moreton - Graham Perrett is clearly a popular MP, getting a swing to him in 2013, and should hold on again. The north of the seat in particular is becoming stronger for the LNP though, and Moreton will remain a key marginal for years to come.
Oxley - Labor hold, although not safe for them, particularly with areas like Forest Lake and Mount Ommaney.
Petrie - Can't see Luke Holwarth holding with such a low margin, Petrie's bellwether streak will likely end in 2016.
Rankin - Labor hold.
Ryan - Easy LNP hold.
Wide Bay - Easy LNP hold.
Wright - LNP hold.

SUMMARY
ALP gain from LNP : Capricornia, Petrie
LNP gain from PUP: Fairfax
Net gain/loss: ALP +2

Senate
LNP: 5
ALP: 5
GRN: 1
GLT (Glenn Lazarus Team): 1

Western Australia

House
Brand - Labor hold, expect a decent swing here.
Burt - Labor candidate Matt Keogh should get a decent swing, particularly in the Armadale/Kelmscott area, where Don Randall's personal vote has sadly disappeared. This should be a gain for Labor, as traditional voting patterns in the east of the seat return, and the swingy west moves away from the Liberals.
Canning - Liberal hold, particularly with the removal of the Armadale area. With popular MP Don Randall sadly no longer with us, expect a big swing back to Labor.
Cowan - Luke Simpkins has had some of his best booths (Kingsley/Woodvale) exchanged for solid Labor territory in and around Beechboro. Perhaps the biggest fight Simpkins has faced since he first won Cowan in 2007, Simpkins is up against Anne Aly, university lecturer. Simpkins appears to have more of a ground game than Aly, although with the projected swing in WA, this has a good chance of falling. Labor gain, possibly narrowly.
Curtin - Easy Liberal hold.
Durack - Liberal hold, considering the late announcement of a National candidate.
Forrest - Easy Liberal hold.
Fremantle - Labor hold.
Hasluck - The hills areas just might save Ken Wyatt, who is favoured in a tight contest.
Moore - Easy Liberal hold.
O'Connor - Likely Liberal hold.
Pearce - Easy Liberal hold.
Perth - Labor hold, although on these boundaries, one to watch next Liberal landslide. The Liberals' Jeremy Quinn is very visible here.
Stirling - Liberal hold, unless the Liberal tide is truly leaving WA.
Swan - Not as safe as it looks, expect Labor to win back more of the eastern booths (the Belmont/Cannington area) in this seat. Will be a nailbiter to the bitter end, Irons will probably sneak back in from his incumbency.
Tangney - Easy Liberal hold, Jensen's preferences will flow strongly back to the Liberals, and I can't see him polling enough to win ala Allan Rocher or Paul Filing in 1996.

SUMMARY
ALP gain from LIB: Burt, Cowan
Net gain/loss: ALP + 2

Senate
LIB: 5
ALP: 5
GRN: 1
NAT: 1

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South Australia

House
Adelaide - Kate Ellis should be safe here, the Liberals shouldn't bother trying to win Adelaide until she retires. The Nick Xenophon Team could make the margin and preference flows interesting though.
Barker - Liberal hold, although expect the Xenophon Team to come second, a significant portion of Barker has elected independents at the state level over the last two decades.
Boothby - Likely Liberal hold, although expect the Nick Xenophon Team to poll well here, particularly in the eastern half of the seat.
Grey - Liberal hold, although the Nick Xenophon Team have an outside chance here.
Hindmarsh - Glenelg, Henley Beach and the coast in general are good for the Liberals, while Labor does better inland, particularly around Mile End. If Labor gain any seats in South Australia, it will be likely this one. The Nick Xenophon Team have made this marginal seat a bit more complex, gun to my head, Williams holds on by a slither.
Kingston - Amanda Risworth, MP since 2007, most be a borderline superhero - this part of Adelaide is not normally safe Labor, and was a marginal seat until the 2010 election. Should stay Labor as long as Rishworth is MP.
Makin - Should be a Labor seat for as long as Tony Zappia is MP.
Mayo - Safe Liberal on paper, although Briggs' scandal may have created an opening for the Nick Xenophon Team. This area was a hotspot for the Democrats in the 1980s and 1990s, who came close to unseating Alexander Downer, Foreign Mninister 1996-2007, in 1998. Briggs has a lower profile than Downer ever did, and getting into hot water has made this one to watch. The way the polls are looking in South Australia, I'm marking this down as a Xenophon Team gain.
Port Adelaide - Easy ALP hold.
Sturt - Despite some polls saying otherwise, particularly with good poll numbers for the Nick Xenophon team, Christopher Pyne should win again. Sturt has not left Liberal hands since 1969, and while the Xenophon Team will likely finish second, Pyne should have enough of a buffer to win a ninth term.
Wakefield - Labor hold, although if Labor were to lose a seat in South Australia, it would be this one.
 
SUMMARY:
NXT gain from LIB: Mayo
Net gain/loss: LIB -1

Senate
NXT - 4
LIB - 3
ALP - 3
GRN - 1
FF - 1

Tasmania

House
Bass - Prone to large swings, Bass could go either way, although is the most likely of the three Liberal seats in Tasmania to stay blue. Likely Liberal hold.
Braddon - Toss-up, Liberals favoured.
Denison - Andrew Wilkie should easily win again.
Franklin - Labor hold.
Lyons - Dick Adams lost this after 20 years last election, and his personal following is now gone. Will be an interesting contest. Going for a narrow Labor gain.

SUMMARY:
ALP gain from LIB: Lyons
Net gain/loss: ALP +1

Senate
LIB: 4
ALP: 5
GRN: 2
JLN: 1

Australian Capital Territory

House
Canberra - Easy Labor hold.
Fenner - Easy Labor hold.

SUMMARY
No change.

Senate
LIB - 1
ALP - 1

Northern Territory

House
Lingiari - While Labor cannot take Lingiari for granted, the poor performance of the CLP territorial government, with a swing away from the CLP, should ensure Labor win another term.
Solomon - Always a close seat, Solomon will be one to watch in 2016.
I think the poor performance of the CLP territorial government will make relection for Griggs to high of a mountain to climb this year. Labor gain, with a decent swing (>4%)

SUMMARY
ALP gain from CLP: Solomon
Net gain/loss: ALP +1

Senate
CLP - 1
ALP - 1

TOTALS:

House
Coalition - 81 (52 LIB, 21 LNP, 8 NAT)
Labor - 63
Greens - 2
Independents - 2 (McGowan and Wilkie)
Katter's Australian Party - 1
Nick Xenophon Team - 1

Senate
Coalition - 29
Labor - 29
Greens - 8
Nick Xenophon Team - 4
Liberal Democrats - 1
Family First - 1
WA Nationals  - 1
Others - 3 (Jacqui Lambie, Glenn Lazarus, Derryn Hinch)

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Channel 9 seem to think open seats are "gains"... Also, One Nation are coming second at the moment in Wright.

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Ugh: Hanson will be back with as many as 3 Senate seats.

Hanson's being interviewed on Channel 9 right now... my ears are bleeding!

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Eden-Monaro flipping and Lindsay probably will too. Who the f**k will the media obsess over now assuming the Coalition holds on?

Corangamite or Petrie? Maybe Reid? (assuming Labor pick that one up next time they get in, assuming they don't form government this time)

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An Analysis of the seat of swan, where I live would be nice.

Interesting one, was a bit of a disappointment for Labor on the night for mine, because I felt it was gonna be marginal, but no it looks safe-ish for Irons. Looking at the booths, it looks like the swing was patchy, but it appears that Labor did better in the eastern, more swingy booths than the more solidly Liberal Western booths (there's a huge East-West divide here, the West is very much blue blood Liberal, but the rest of the seat is much more swingy). This pattern was not atypical this election, in many seats the Labor vote swung the most in the more naturally Labor-leaning areas.

Probably Anton Kreitzer might know this part of the world better than me, I'm from the other side of the country

AK reporting here, regarding Swan, while Labor did either win back or improve their performance in a lot of the east of the seat (Cannington, Belmont/Kewdale/Redcliffe, the High Wycombe area from Hasluck, which tends to vote with the overall winner), the strongly Liberal South Perth/Como area held up really well, and indeed, the Liberals got a swing TO them in most of the South Perth and Como booths. In most booths, the swing to Labor was not enough to win back the seat, and areas like Rivervale (the area of Belmont near the casino and new stadium) are getting better for the Liberals.

Irons' incumbency would have helped as well, and also, voters differentiating between state and federal issues. Speaking of which, in next year's state election, expect a big swing to Labor in the state seats of Belmont (most of the northeast of Swan) and Forrestfield (where High Wycombe is, most of this seat is in neighbouring Hasluck).

If you'd like analysis of any other WA seats, feel free to ask

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Bob Katter throws support behind Coalition, if they do not gain a majority.

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Greater Sydney

Great maps as always, Smid!

Labor at 50.06% of national 2pp, retaking the lead.

Not according to the AEC.

National two-party preferred
Turnout: 72.11%
Party / Coalition   Votes                         Vote %   Swing %
Liberal/National Coalition   5,354,596   50.13   -3.36
Australian Labor Party      5,326,493      49.87     +3.36

But, it seems there's been about a 2.3% increase in informal Senate ballots, code for "people didn't understand the new voting rules"

It's not that hard people... unless that many people were protesting/defacing their ballots? Unlikely if you ask me.