Greece to Leave the Euro Zone

[ingemann]

Why does leaving the Eurozone have any connection with Greece in the EU? There are plenty of other EU nations not on the Euro.

One word: migration. Greeks will be fleeing in droves. I am not sure Danes will be happy.

Why should we care? If they come to Denmark they have to work first to get access to any benefits and if they don't work we can send them home again, and if they have worked for the periode which they need to receive benefits, our benefits are not more generous than having a job, so I suspect they will keep working, if they have entered the Danish labour market.

[ag]

Why does leaving the Eurozone have any connection with Greece in the EU? There are plenty of other EU nations not on the Euro.

One word: migration. Greeks will be fleeing in droves. I am not sure Danes will be happy.

Why should we care? If they come to Denmark they have to work first to get access to any benefits and if they don't work we can send them home again, and if they have worked for the periode which they need to receive benefits, our benefits are not more generous than having a job, so I suspect they will keep working, if they have entered the Danish labour market.

I was not even thinking about the idiotic idea that anybody would migrate "to get benefits". The myth is not even worth considering. Migrants tend to work a lot more than the natives.

Of course, they will be coming to work.  I have not seen Danes being very friendly to people from poor countries trying to work. As of today, Greece is a poor country. The only difference here is that Greeks have the right to live in Denmark (as long as Greece remains in the EU).

[ingemann]

Why does leaving the Eurozone have any connection with Greece in the EU? There are plenty of other EU nations not on the Euro.

One word: migration. Greeks will be fleeing in droves. I am not sure Danes will be happy.

Why should we care? If they come to Denmark they have to work first to get access to any benefits and if they don't work we can send them home again, and if they have worked for the periode which they need to receive benefits, our benefits are not more generous than having a job, so I suspect they will keep working, if they have entered the Danish labour market.

I was not even thinking about the idiotic idea that anybody would migrate "to get benefits". The myth is not even worth considering. Migrants tend to work a lot more than the natives.

Of course they do, of course our statistic say something different, but clearly your anecdotal evidence from another country with another labour system are more correct.

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There are poor countries and there are poor countries. Greece is at worst a middle income country, it have high literacy and a large number of skilled workers. Plus not all low income country are equal, you rarely hear any Danes having a negative opinion of Tamil or Vietnamese immigrants and refugees.

[ag]

Anyway, I will enjoy observing Danish attitudes towards Greek migrants from afar. Fortunately, I am neither Greek nor in Denmark.

[ingemann]

Anyway, I will enjoy observing Danish attitudes towards Greek migrants from afar. Fortunately, I am neither Greek nor in Denmark.

This makes me sad, I thought you would argue against my statistics, I had even found them and made everything ready:(.

Also on a more serious note I doubt we will get many Greek immigrants, they usual go to Germany, because of a large historical guest worker community there. We get Romanians, Poles and Balts instead.

[ag]

Anyway, I will enjoy observing Danish attitudes towards Greek migrants from afar. Fortunately, I am neither Greek nor in Denmark.

This makes me sad, I thought you would argue against my statistics, I had even found them and made everything ready:(.

Nothing prevents you from publishing it, even without my argument.

[ag]

Also on a more serious note I doubt we will get many Greek immigrants, they usual go to Germany, because of a large historical guest worker community there. We get Romanians, Poles and Balts instead.

There will be enough for everyone. If things go wrong, I could easily see a quarter or a third of the Greeks leaving.

[ingemann]

Also on a more serious note I doubt we will get many Greek immigrants, they usual go to Germany, because of a large historical guest worker community there. We get Romanians, Poles and Balts instead.

There will be enough for everyone. If things go wrong, I could easily see a quarter or a third of the Greeks leaving.

While I could imagine a situation where so many Greek leave Greece, I don't find it very realistic. It's more likely we will see a slow outflow. But again Greece population are relative small and while the European economies with growth are the most likely immigration targets, they will still be thinned out to where they immigrate to. But again I don't see why it's a problem for us, I can see why it's a problem for Greece if their youth leave, but not for us.

[© tweed]

how about increasing border patrol severalfold and banning emigration?  it could double as a public works program

[ag]

how about increasing border patrol severalfold and banning emigration?  it could double as a public works program

Banning emigration = leaving EU.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Well if there is another round of mass emigration from Greece, they are more than welcome to come to Chicago We have tons of space, an already strong Greek ethnic community, and Greektown needs a revival. Plus, you're in Chicago! Everyone wins!


No, but seriously, is Greece an aging society like Italy is? Brain drain would only make the problems worse.

[ingemann]

Well if there is another round of mass emigration from Greece, they are more than welcome to come to Chicago We have tons of space, an already strong Greek ethnic community, and Greektown needs a revival. Plus, you're in Chicago! Everyone wins!


No, but seriously, is Greece an aging society like Italy is? Brain drain would only make the problems worse.

Yes Europe are split with the north west having close to replacement rate, the south much below, east Europe falling between (Germany and France being the exceptions to this rule).

This is also a major reason to why Greece need to set up the pension age. Of course that's their least problem now.

[© tweed]

how about increasing border patrol severalfold and banning emigration?  it could double as a public works program

Banning emigration = leaving EU.

yes, of course.

[ag]

Well if there is another round of mass emigration from Greece, they are more than welcome to come to Chicago We have tons of space, an already strong Greek ethnic community, and Greektown needs a revival. Plus, you're in Chicago! Everyone wins!


No, but seriously, is Greece an aging society like Italy is? Brain drain would only make the problems worse.

Unfortunately, they would need visas to do that. Visa Waiver is unlikely to stay in force for the Greeks - and, even if it does, visa overstay still makes you an illegal migrant, with all the unpleasantness that implies. In contrast, for the moment, they can simply move to Germany without asking anyone.

[ag]

But again I don't see why it's a problem for us, I can see why it's a problem for Greece if their youth leave, but not for us.

I would not see that as a problem either. But, it seems, Danes are not very fond of poor migrants.

[Ban my account ffs!]

I really hope the US will stand with Greece in all this.  The Greeks need relief, investment, and economic growth.  Not more suffering at the hands of old fashioned European sectarianism.

[ag]

I really hope the US will stand with Greece in all this.  The Greeks need relief, investment, and economic growth.  Not more suffering at the hands of old fashioned European sectarianism.

You would like the US to provide Greece with 200 bln dolars, or so, in cash? Otherwise, what is it that you would like the US to do?

[Ebsy]

I really hope the US will stand with Greece in all this.  The Greeks need relief, investment, and economic growth.  Not more suffering at the hands of old fashioned European sectarianism.

You would like the US to provide Greece with 200 bln dolars, or so, in cash? Otherwise, what is it that you would like the US to do?

I actually don't think that is that bad of an idea. None of this would be happening if Europe had ponied up a proper bailout in the first place instead of punitive loans.

[Simfan34]

That wouldn't have been a bailout. That would have been unconditional debt forgiveness. And that is a desirable thing because... how, again?

[Ebsy]

That wouldn't have been a bailout. That would have been unconditional debt forgiveness. And that is a desirable thing because... how, again?

Because a default/Grexit will be way more expensive than debt forgiveness would have been back in 2010. Whatever you think should happen now, Merkel's original strategy has been proven a total disaster in that it only made the crisis worse and cost Europeans much more money.

[Simfan34]

That wouldn't have been a bailout. That would have been unconditional debt forgiveness. And that is a desirable thing because... how, again?

Because a default/Grexit will be way more expensive than debt forgiveness would have been back in 2010. Whatever you think should happen now, Merkel's original strategy has been proven a total disaster in that it only made the crisis worse and cost Europeans much more money.

And Grexit in 2010 even cheaper.

Merkel's strategy was dependent on the Greek government acting in the long-term interests of the country. The flaw of that, of course, was that such action was electorally harmful in the short term. Now the Greeks have gotten themselves a government that pledged the wonderful but impossible... and here we are.

Perhaps she was unwise to expect more from the Greeks. People anywhere rarely vote in line with their long-term interests when they're at odds with want they want in the short term. But simply writing off all their debt without any kind of consequences would have been the worst possible thing to do.

[ag]

That wouldn't have been a bailout. That would have been unconditional debt forgiveness. And that is a desirable thing because... how, again?

Because a default/Grexit will be way more expensive than debt forgiveness would have been back in 2010. Whatever you think should happen now, Merkel's original strategy has been proven a total disaster in that it only made the crisis worse and cost Europeans much more money.

Will it? For Greeks - certainly. But Merkel is not elected by the Greeks.

[ag]

I really hope the US will stand with Greece in all this.  The Greeks need relief, investment, and economic growth.  Not more suffering at the hands of old fashioned European sectarianism.

You would like the US to provide Greece with 200 bln dolars, or so, in cash? Otherwise, what is it that you would like the US to do?

I actually don't think that is that bad of an idea.

Write your Congressman.

[jaichind]

If the entire argument is that austerity is counterproductive by lowering the nominal GDP making the debt burden even higher (this is Krugman's argument), then to some degree I agree.  But the Greek government them must make a proposal that get the EU to align their interests this with argument.  

What they can propose is the following:  

"Net debt to GDP is 180%.  Lets restructure the debt to be linked to nominal GDP.  Lets make change the face value (and with it coupon payments) of the debt to linked to GDP.  Let total debt to GDP have a cap of 160% of GDP and floor of 140% of GDP.  Assuming we only pay on coupons for the next few years if nominal GDP goes down than the corresponding coupon payment will also fall to follow the cap of 160% of GDP.  As nominal GDP rises as a result of the recovery as a result of lower coupon payments to a degree that the face value of the debt falls below 140% of GDP the face value of the debt and coupon payment rises to keep the floor of 140% of GDP."

The idea is you want to get the EU to by into the Keynesian logic that if you decrease demand total output falls as well with less to tax.  And you do that by giving the EU the ability to share in the upside if this logic works out.   Just sitting demanding that people just forget about the fact you owe this money fair an square does not got down well.  If you want debt holder to forgive some debt then you must give the debt holder an incentive to do this by sharing in the upside if things actually work out as a result.

[© tweed]

the idea for the ECB is to have Greece as an eternally depressed, slave state, and a vehicle for transferring wealth to foreign creditors.  I believe the number is 8 of 9 Euros worth of loan/"aid" to Greece go to foreign creditors.  the idea is to keep this going for eternity.

you'll never push the Troika into some Keynesian-bent economics because they don't want that.  they hate any possibility of inflation.