Greece to Leave the Euro Zone
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Author Topic: Greece to Leave the Euro Zone  (Read 9193 times)
TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #75 on: July 02, 2015, 01:17:57 AM »
« edited: July 02, 2015, 01:23:42 AM by TheDeadFlagBlues »

Ordinarily, I'd be irritated at this seemingly off-topic discussion but it's a pretty telling discussion.

The manner in which ag approaches the thorny student loan issue is interesting. He approaches it by thinking about ways in which students can optimize their situation in accordance with their preferences while facing certain constraints. Meanwhile, the rest of the forum appears to be approaching this issue by thinking about normative questions asking whether or not it's just for students to face these constraints when they live in an affluent society? In my view, this characterizes the debate surrounding Greece quite nicely. Sure, Greece could have approached the negotiations differently or prepared for default differently etc. I like discussing questions of strategy but the questions that matter are normative: is it just for creditor countries to create humanitarian crises in debtor nations for the sake of illusive "competitiveness" that tends to create less than ideal distributional outcomes? This question could be posed in a manner that doesn't betray my bias.

Anyways, I share ag's perspectives on student debt but that doesn't inform my stance on public policy choices. Frankly, I don't care all that much about what students could do, I care about the realm of the real where students are drowning in debt, in large part because they're being swindled by for-profit universities or universities that are attempting to fill funding gaps by expanding recreational services to make their campuses more attractive for foreigners or out of state students, which tends to push up the cost of tuition for in-state students.

edit: fwiw, I think that point 8 of ag's list mostly explains the Eurogroup's reaction to Greece. In the Eurogroup's reckoning, rules matter and rewarding a government that has done everything in its power to break with the Memorandum would send a bad signal to countries with better bargaining positions.
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The Last Northerner
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« Reply #76 on: July 02, 2015, 04:04:58 AM »

The Greek government keeps saying that the "no" victory doesn't mean leaving the Eurozone.
'
Which is obvious a negotiation tactic to keep the EU talking. Their electoral mandate was to stop austerity, a nearly impossible task given their Eurozone membership. SYRIZA's decision to coalition with ANEL over the pro-EU/austerity left made it clear what direction they were taking.

Regardless of the question asked, the referendum will been seen as "Should Greece keep the Euro?"
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ingemann
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« Reply #77 on: July 02, 2015, 04:57:06 AM »

The Greek government keeps saying that the "no" victory doesn't mean leaving the Eurozone.
'
Which is obvious a negotiation tactic to keep the EU talking. Their electoral mandate was to stop austerity, a nearly impossible task given their Eurozone membership. SYRIZA's decision to coalition with ANEL over the pro-EU/austerity left made it clear what direction they were taking.

Regardless of the question asked, the referendum will been seen as "Should Greece keep the Euro?"

The problem is; talking about what? Greek banks will no longer get money from ECB, also when the Greeks no longer pay their debt, there's no reason to discuss new loans from the rest of EZ. Greece can keep using the Euro, but it will be more like Kosovo and Montenegro use it.
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traininthedistance
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« Reply #78 on: July 02, 2015, 11:49:06 AM »
« Edited: July 02, 2015, 01:34:41 PM by traininthedistance »

1. Why are those flagships "not an option"? Because one cannot get in for academic reasons? Ok, fine. CUNY runs open admission. CUNY City College is 3 thousand dollars a year for city residents. And that is the City College - most certainly, you are better off there than in many private schools. And community colleges of some sort exist throughout the country: if you are not very smart (could not get into a decent public four-year college), you will not do any worse by going there than by paying tuition at a private residential college. And if you are smart, you can always transfer from a community college to a better school - saving on the first two years of tuition.

Because there are plenty of academically qualified people who don't get into flagships anymore because population growth has outpaced growth at those schools, and also because admission at good schools tends to be a crapshoot where, say, 90% of applicants would basically be qualified but some much smaller percentage gets in.

(And Simfan is right that City College ain't what it once was, BTW.)

2. If you are planning, say, an academic career (the one that will not pay high sallaries), there are multiple options out there that would allow you not to get that debt. I know: I did it (and I went to both college and to grad school in the US, without being eligible for any in-state tuition, or whatever).

Well, whoop-de-doo for you.  In the real world, for most people, if you're planning on an academic career going to an expensive top-tier undergrad for 4 years is actually really important, and actually really boosts your chances of being able to have such an academic career! That exceptions exist does not change that general calculus.*

3. A 17-year old can choose to go to war. In many countries at the age of 17 you are supposed to choose whether you are going to study chemistry or romance languages for the rest of your life.  In this particular case you, actually, need consent of an adult. I simply do not see what is the problem.

Two wrongs don't make a right.  Being locked into one's future at such a young age is one aspect of the European model I profoundly wish to avoid.  People need the option to escape, to change.

You assume that everyone thinks as rationally as you do about financial decisions when it comes to paying for college.

What do yo mean by "rationally"?

And if they do not "think rationally", this is, basically, an invitation to lock the young people out of college: stop subsidizing all thos cheap loans, and they will go work in McDonalds, as they should.

Okay, wow, that is just sickening and I do not know how to respond.

Anyway, all of the defenses of the status quo you've made here, in addition to callously disregarding the circumstances in which people actually make these decisions, and fall back on lazy victim-blaming, you've failed as of yet to engage with the two most serious points here, that:

a) uniquely among varieties of debt, student loans cannot be discharged in bankruptcy.  I can understand a position that generally says "debts ought to be repaid," but what is the justification for this specially strict treatment vis-a-vis other sorts of debts?
b) the vagaries of the business cycle have screwed zillions of people for whom, in better years, those loans would have paid off instead.

...

*For the record, and not to get too personal, that is in fact the exact road I went down (going to an expensive school that was particularly well-known for producing PhD students, with an eye towards becoming one myself), though I realized too late that academia was not going to happen for me.  Ergo I very much don't exactly take kindly to the suggestion that I deserve debtor's prison for decisions I made when I was 16/having to change gears.  Thanks.
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traininthedistance
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« Reply #79 on: July 02, 2015, 12:00:01 PM »

Another thing: if every one in the middle class took ag's advice and only went to cheap state schools (which, BTW, are getting less and less cheap by the year), those expensive private schools would become even more a preserve of the 1% than they already are.  The negative ramifications of that shift for social mobility and society at large are left as an exercise for the reader.
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ag
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« Reply #80 on: July 02, 2015, 12:43:38 PM »

*For the record, and not to get too personal, that is in fact the exact road I went down (going to an expensive school that was particularly well-known for producing PhD students, with an eye towards becoming one myself), though I realized too late that academia was not going to happen for me.  Ergo I very much don't exactly take kindly to the suggestion that I deserve debtor's prison for decisions I made when I was 16/having to change gears.  Thanks.

Well, I, actually, went to a non-prestigeous private undergraduate residential college, which would have been expensive, but I got a scholarship (I was not even eligible for any of those nice loans, being a foreigner - and I had exactly no money to pay cash). Out of, literally, thousands of students in my graduating class, exactly 3 went for a ph.d. (and that was considered a very successful year in this respect). Nobody had gone for a Ph.D. in my field from that school in years. It was not at all a problem getting admitted to a good grad school - with full funding. You do NOT have to go to a prestigeous undergraduate school to get to a pretty good doctorate program. You just have to be decent and know what you want.

Anyway, if you want to go for a ph.d. in economics in the US, just learn Spanish and come down for your undergraduate to us here in Mexico. We charge less than USD$10 grand a year and send more students for a US ph.d. than all but a handful schools in the world. And living costs here are low Smiley
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ag
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« Reply #81 on: July 02, 2015, 12:47:59 PM »

Another thing: if every one in the middle class took ag's advice and only went to cheap state schools (which, BTW, are getting less and less cheap by the year), those expensive private schools would become even more a preserve of the 1% than they already are.  The negative ramifications of that shift for social mobility and society at large are left as an exercise for the reader.

I do not know of many Harvard grads who suffer so much paying out their debts: Harvard degree is money (and, in any case, if you do struggle you are not doing much for social mobility). Most poor souls who paid fortune for college and struggle with debts went to very different kinds of schools. No disparagement intended, but I see no reason to borrow so much in order to attend Hofstras and Adelphis of this world.
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Simfan34
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« Reply #82 on: July 02, 2015, 03:14:14 PM »

City College is not what it once was, I'm afraid. That is in a good way- it no longer has open admissions, for example.- but it is mostly in a bad way.

It is a lot better than quite a few private (and, especially, for profit schools). If you cannot get into Stony Brook, tell me, which school is going to be a better deal than City or Hunter?

Fair point.
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The Last Northerner
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« Reply #83 on: July 03, 2015, 12:42:35 AM »

The Greek government keeps saying that the "no" victory doesn't mean leaving the Eurozone.
'
Which is obvious a negotiation tactic to keep the EU talking. Their electoral mandate was to stop austerity, a nearly impossible task given their Eurozone membership. SYRIZA's decision to coalition with ANEL over the pro-EU/austerity left made it clear what direction they were taking.

Regardless of the question asked, the referendum will been seen as "Should Greece keep the Euro?"

The problem is; talking about what? Greek banks will no longer get money from ECB, also when the Greeks no longer pay their debt, there's no reason to discuss new loans from the rest of EZ. Greece can keep using the Euro, but it will be more like Kosovo and Montenegro use it.


The Greek government was trying to play the double game - the image of a leader trying to stay in the EU if they could get the 'proper' (read: impossible) deal. If they were honest and openly anti-EU to the Troika's face, talks would have folded instantly.


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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #84 on: July 03, 2015, 07:40:08 AM »

Tsipras said he would resign if 'yes' wins, right?  (and Syriza possibly/probably re-elected with a plurality)
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ingemann
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« Reply #85 on: July 03, 2015, 01:59:10 PM »
« Edited: July 03, 2015, 02:00:56 PM by ingemann »

Tsipras said he would resign if 'yes' wins, right?  (and Syriza possibly/probably re-elected with a plurality)

Yes which is why I somewhat hope for a no (beside a being tired of the eternal negotiation with Greece), so that Syriza can clean up the mess they have made, and they can't in the future say that if the Greek people had just followed them, the extra mess Greece will be in, wouldn't have happen.
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swl
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« Reply #86 on: July 03, 2015, 02:15:26 PM »

No he didn't say that, Varoufakis said it.
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Simfan34
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« Reply #87 on: July 04, 2015, 12:39:59 PM »

But what would happen? Yes wins, Tspiras resigns, new elections are held, Syriza wins again... and then what?
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Atlas Has Shrugged
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« Reply #88 on: July 04, 2015, 02:09:40 PM »

But what would happen? Yes wins, Tspiras resigns, new elections are held, Syriza wins again... and then what?
I assume a different Syriza leader takes office?
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #89 on: July 04, 2015, 02:55:15 PM »

But what would happen? Yes wins, Tspiras resigns, new elections are held, Syriza wins again... and then what?
I assume a different Syriza leader takes office?

Yanis takes over as PM.  brilliant.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #90 on: July 04, 2015, 02:59:53 PM »

Another thing: if every one in the middle class took ag's advice and only went to cheap state schools (which, BTW, are getting less and less cheap by the year), those expensive private schools would become even more a preserve of the 1% than they already are.  The negative ramifications of that shift for social mobility and society at large are left as an exercise for the reader.

I do not know of many Harvard grads who suffer so much paying out their debts: Harvard degree is money (and, in any case, if you do struggle you are not doing much for social mobility). Most poor souls who paid fortune for college and struggle with debts went to very different kinds of schools. No disparagement intended, but I see no reason to borrow so much in order to attend Hofstras and Adelphis of this world.

right -- and "the market" wouldn't offer an assetless student and his asset-less parent to take out $200k in money over a 4 year span but for the bankruptcy protection exemption.  it is a policy designed to victimize people who have "dreams of college and getting a job"... college is an ideological status symbol in the USA, and I'm sure elsewhere.  viewing the college loans catastrophe as "merely economics at work" without taking in the myriad other factors that lead people to behave, gasp, irrationally, is the height of myopia.
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Simfan34
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« Reply #91 on: July 04, 2015, 03:05:14 PM »
« Edited: July 04, 2015, 03:08:58 PM by Governor Simfan34 »

But what would happen? Yes wins, Tspiras resigns, new elections are held, Syriza wins again... and then what?
I assume a different Syriza leader takes office?

Yanis takes over as PM.  brilliant.

That would be interesting. But Varoufakis is a bit of a political outsider, no? He was teaching at UT Austin until just this year.

Never fully got his appeal, anyway. He gives off an odd vibe... and looks a bit too much like Voldemort with a nose for comfort.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #92 on: July 04, 2015, 04:06:03 PM »

his appeal is that he is a new-new Left intellectual who is both a man of letters and a man of action.
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BaconBacon96
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« Reply #93 on: July 04, 2015, 04:44:00 PM »

Yanis is resigning as Finance Minister if the Yes vote wins so there's no way he becomes PM.
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Indy Texas
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« Reply #94 on: July 04, 2015, 07:21:50 PM »

Another thing: if every one in the middle class took ag's advice and only went to cheap state schools (which, BTW, are getting less and less cheap by the year), those expensive private schools would become even more a preserve of the 1% than they already are.  The negative ramifications of that shift for social mobility and society at large are left as an exercise for the reader.

I do not know of many Harvard grads who suffer so much paying out their debts: Harvard degree is money (and, in any case, if you do struggle you are not doing much for social mobility). Most poor souls who paid fortune for college and struggle with debts went to very different kinds of schools. No disparagement intended, but I see no reason to borrow so much in order to attend Hofstras and Adelphis of this world.

right -- and "the market" wouldn't offer an assetless student and his asset-less parent to take out $200k in money over a 4 year span but for the bankruptcy protection exemption.  it is a policy designed to victimize people who have "dreams of college and getting a job"... college is an ideological status symbol in the USA, and I'm sure elsewhere.  viewing the college loans catastrophe as "merely economics at work" without taking in the myriad other factors that lead people to behave, gasp, irrationally, is the height of myopia.

Student loans are secured by nothing. That is why they can't be discharged in bankruptcy. If I default on a mortgage, the creditor can seize the house and sell it to mitigate their losses. If I default on a car loan, the car gets repossessed and sold. If I default on a student loan, there is nothing to "take back."

The closest equivalent - a nonsecured debt that can be discharged in bankruptcy - is credit card debt. But I doubt you'd want to see credit card level interest rates on student loans.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #95 on: July 05, 2015, 02:56:17 PM »

so.  looks like "Nein!" has won with over 60% of the vote.  gives Tsipras et al some "democratic legitimacy" as they peer into the abyss and get ready to jump.  fate is cooperating.
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Frodo
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« Reply #96 on: July 05, 2015, 04:06:50 PM »

The deed is done:

Greeks Reject Bailout Terms in Rebuff to European Leaders

By SUZANNE DALEY
JULY 5, 2015


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ag
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« Reply #97 on: July 05, 2015, 06:20:34 PM »

The most important thing right now is to make sure humanitarian aid is given to the Greek populace. The next few months will be very difficult, until the new currency is operational.
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Clarko95 📚💰📈
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« Reply #98 on: July 05, 2015, 09:27:51 PM »

"Shocking" that the people who have suffered enormous economic devastation do not gleefully bend over for more of the same that was the past 5 years.


Shocking, I tell you.
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Frodo
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« Reply #99 on: July 15, 2015, 06:47:20 PM »

The Greek parliament has just voted to approve the bailout package, as well as the following reforms:


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And next week, they will be voting on another round of reforms. 
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