VA: Clinton '16 vs. Obama '12

[Mr. Illini]

Will Hillary have a stronger showing in Virginia than Obama did in 2012?

Many have said that Obama was perfect for NoVA, but Clinton is moreso. Her brand is McAuliffe-esque (or should I say he is Clinton-esque). Further, this region has only grown, and even faster than between the last handful of cycles, which is really what turned in blue in 08/12/13 in the first place.

She will certainly outperform Obama in south and southwest Virginia as well, as she should among all white southern areas.

A concern is the national climate, which is still to be seen, but her relative strength among VA's key voting blocs may be even enough to counteract a bad climate.

It's an interesting question in my opinion, but I would say that leaving aside certain variables (landslides, etc.), I think she is set to outperform Obama in Virginia against generic R at this point.

[JonathanSwift]

I'm confident Virginia will trend Democratic in 2016. Whether it swings Democratic remains to be seen.

[Nyvin]

I think this is one of the states Clinton will do better than Obama in.

[Hydera]

Two demographic will have reduced turnouts.

Rural whites and Blacks.

Meanwhile she improves around richmond and nova suburbs by small swings.

So a 0.20-1.50% swing to Hillary in Virginia. An improvement but barely.  And little to none flips in counties.

[dudeabides]

Hillary's fundamental problem is Jeb Bush. Bush can get some folks who voted for President Obama in 2008 and 2012 to vote for him in 2016, across the country. In a split state like Virginia, that can be a victory for the Bush campaign.

[publicunofficial]

Hillary's fundamental problem is Jeb Bush. Bush can get some folks who voted for President Obama in 2008 and 2012 to vote for him in 2016, across the country. In a split state like Virginia, that can be a victory for the Bush campaign.

Who do you honestly think is an Obama 12/Bush 16 voter?

[Mr. Illini]

Obama is a better fit for the state, but it will trend Democratic anyway in 2016. VA should really make the Republicans worried. In fact, it is THE reason Republicans have to contest PA.

Can anyone explain this comment? 15 people voted for it but no one indulged.

[Devils30]

this isn't 2004, the Bush name is tarnished and Jeb will have a Romney 2012 like ceiling in VA and elsewhere.

[Xing]

I'm pretty sure it will trend Democratic relative to the nation as a whole. The question is how much.

[Frodo]

I'm pretty sure it will trend Democratic relative to the nation as a whole. The question is how much.

Virginia has always trended ahead of the rest of the South -in 1952 (I regard 1928 as an aberration) it was among the first southern states to vote Republican.  This was more than a decade before the Deep South followed suit in 1964, and cemented in 1972. 

Now we are seeing the reverse that first began in 2008.   

[Mr. Reactionary]

Obama is a better fit for the state, but it will trend Democratic anyway in 2016. VA should really make the Republicans worried. In fact, it is THE reason Republicans have to contest PA.

Can anyone explain this comment? 15 people voted for it but no one indulged.

Decreased Minority turnout/ Decreased monolithic minority voting patterns. Against generic R with no Obama on the ticket, I don't see Asian and Latino (hell, even black voters) voting as overwhelmingly D as was the case under Obama. IIRC Asian voters had a 25 point swing from 2012 to 2014. At the same time, I don't see any real reason for the rural white voters who flipped from D to R switching back without some change in platform.

[Skill and Chance]

I'm pretty sure it will trend Democratic relative to the nation as a whole. The question is how much.

Virginia has always trended ahead of the rest of the South -in 1952 (I regard 1928 as an aberration) it was among the first southern states to vote Republican.  This was more than a decade before the Deep South followed suit in 1964, and cemented in 1972. 

Now we are seeing the reverse that first began in 2008.   

I really don't see any additional Southern states switching allegiances anytime soon except maybe Georgia depending on where the black vote trends post-Obama.

That having been said, I think VA will continue to trend left even though Hillary is a slightly worse fit (although she is getting better with her new platform this time around).  Pending on how social issues go from here, it wouldn't shock me if VA is D+5 in 2028.

[Suburbia]

I think she may do somewhat better than Obama did in '12.

[Frodo]

I'm pretty sure it will trend Democratic relative to the nation as a whole. The question is how much.

Virginia has always trended ahead of the rest of the South -in 1952 (I regard 1928 as an aberration) it was among the first southern states to vote Republican.  This was more than a decade before the Deep South followed suit in 1964, and cemented in 1972.  

Now we are seeing the reverse that first began in 2008.  

I really don't see any additional Southern states switching allegiances anytime soon except maybe Georgia depending on where the black vote trends post-Obama.

North Carolina, Florida, Georgia, Mississippi (though I am a bit dubious about that one) are all contenders in addition to Virginia.  And in the long run, I would add South Carolina too as it urbanizes further, with most growth centered around Charleston.  

[Mr. Smith]

Lean Clinton

[ElectionsGuy]

I think Obama was the perfect candidate to turnout enough NoVa and Black voters to win the state. Clinton is worse for the state, but the Democratic trend will probably save her.

[HillOfANight]

Obama is a better fit for the state, but it will trend Democratic anyway in 2016. VA should really make the Republicans worried. In fact, it is THE reason Republicans have to contest PA.

Can anyone explain this comment? 15 people voted for it but no one indulged.

Decreased Minority turnout/ Decreased monolithic minority voting patterns. Against generic R with no Obama on the ticket, I don't see Asian and Latino (hell, even black voters) voting as overwhelmingly D as was the case under Obama. IIRC Asian voters had a 25 point swing from 2012 to 2014. At the same time, I don't see any real reason for the rural white voters who flipped from D to R switching back without some change in platform.

I don't see why the Democrats can' continue to have a monopoly on the Latino vote. Sure, Bush/Rubio might perform a little better than Romney, but Obama has just passed DACA. Latinos will want a Democrat for the best chance of taking that to the next level of citizenship for DACA.

[Prince of Salem]

I'm confident Virginia will trend Democratic in 2016. Whether it swings Democratic remains to be seen.