What percentage of the Hispanic/Asian/Black/ vote will Republicans get this turn

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

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[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Asian: 38%
Hispanic: 35%
Black: 9%

[Likely Voter]

Well here is the trend...

          00   04  08  12
Black   9   11    4     6
Latino 35   44   31   27
Asian  41   43   35   26

My guess for 2016
Black   8
Latino 33*
Asian  33*

Which means the GOP will need 61%+ of the white vote to win

* A LOT depends on the GOP position on immigration. Polling has shown that support for a path to citizenship makes a big difference (and Bush's 2004 seems to back that up). I am assuming that the GOP nominee will not back a path to citizenship.

[Matty]

Far too early to tell. The Asian vote will swing the most though because Asians tend to be pro-incumbent. When no incumbent is up for re-election, they are more split in their voting.

[CountryClassSF]

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The press didn't report it, but we actually won the asian vote 50-49% in 2014.

After losing the asian vote by a lopsided margin in 2012, this was a pretty large swing.  It went virtually under the radar.

I think Republicans can pull up to 10% of the black vote for this cycle, 35% of the Hispanic vote, and perhaps 46-47% of the Asian-American vote

[Likely Voter]

RE: Asian vote in 2014
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2014/11/10/did-asian-americans-switch-parties-overnight-no/

[YaBoyNY]

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The press didn't report it, but we actually won the asian vote 50-49% in 2014.

After losing the asian vote by a lopsided margin in 2012, this was a pretty large swing.  It went virtually under the radar.

I think Republicans can pull up to 10% of the black vote for this cycle, 35% of the Hispanic vote, and perhaps 46-47% of the Asian-American vote

Wasn't the Asian turnout even more abysmal than national turnout in 2014?

They're not pulling 46-47% of the vote in a presidential election if they continue to be the anti-science, anti-education party.

[CountryClassSF]

They're not pulling 46-47% of the vote in a presidential election if they continue to be the anti-science, anti-education party.

We're very much pro-science. We believe life begins at conception. Scientific to the core.

[YaBoyNY]

They're not pulling 46-47% of the vote in a presidential election if they continue to be the anti-science, anti-education party.

We're very much pro-science. We believe life begins at conception. Scientific to the core.

Lmfao.

[Matty]

What makes republicans more "anti-science" than democrats? Can you please remind me which party tends to oppose GMOs, yet almost every single respected study has found that GMOs are just as safe as any other food? Can you please remind me which party opposes fracking, despite the fact that numerous, if not most, studies have concluded that fracking is safe? Can you please tell me which party denies  basic economic concepts such as incentives, supply and demand, and the important of profit and loss? Can you please tell me where the anti-vaccine movement started?

Which party denies the existence of fetal pain, the heritability of intelligence, or nuclear power?

Why does the leftwing  get to pick and choose which issues are benchmarks for science?

Economic is the science of incentives. Yet most of the delegates in the national Democratic Convention don’t believe in incentives. They believe if a price is too high (think housing rents), the government can push it down and nothing bad will happen. They believe if a price is too low (think wages), government can push it up and nothing bad will happened. They believe that a plan formed by people at the top will work (think Obamacare) even if everyone at the bottom has a self-interest in defeating it.

This is science denial in spades.

[CountryClassSF]

What makes republicans more "anti-science" than democrats? Can you please remind me which party tends to oppose GMOs, yet almost every single respected study has found that GMOs are just as safe as any other food? Can you please remind me which party opposes fracking, despite the fact that numerous, if not most, studies have concluded that fracking is safe? Can you please tell me which party denies  basic economic concepts such as incentives, supply and demand, and the important of profit and loss? Can you please tell me where the anti-vaccine movement started?

Which party denies the existence of fetal pain, the heritability of intelligence, or nuclear power?

Why does the leftwing  get to pick and choose which issues are benchmarks for science?

Economic is the science of incentives. Yet most of the delegates in the national Democratic Convention don’t believe in incentives. They believe if a price is too high (think housing rents), the government can push it down and nothing bad will happen. They believe if a price is too low (think wages), government can push it up and nothing bad will happened. They believe that a plan formed by people at the top will work (think Obamacare) even if everyone at the bottom has a self-interest in defeating it.

This is science denial in spades.

^^^^^

Don't even get me started!! I think many on the left think Monsanto is their secularist antichrist.  Everything is Monsanto's fault. Monsanto is the new Bush! lol

The Democrats push "the Republicans are stupid" meme, with willful and conscious help of course from Hollywood and the mass media, because when elites/celebrities force a meme, low information and apolitical people follow and vote based on that.

Life beginning at conception is scientific. But alas, the left is interested in NARAL's interests first.

[eric82oslo]

Depends on the candidate apparently. Doh.

[Rockefeller GOP]

What makes republicans more "anti-science" than democrats? Can you please remind me which party tends to oppose GMOs, yet almost every single respected study has found that GMOs are just as safe as any other food? Can you please remind me which party opposes fracking, despite the fact that numerous, if not most, studies have concluded that fracking is safe?

These are fair.

Can you please tell me which party denies  basic economic concepts such as incentives, supply and demand, and the important of profit and loss?

Democrats don't deny basic economic concepts, just your understanding of them.

Can you please tell me where the anti-vaccine movement started?

England, in the 1840s. Bit hard to pin that one on the Democrats.

Which party denies the existence of fetal pain,

Doesn't exist before the third trimester.

the heritability of intelligence,

I don't think a Democrat has ever taken a public stance on this.

or nuclear power?

Which a majority of Democrats favor.

Why does the leftwing  get to pick and choose which issues are benchmarks for science?

Economic is the science of incentives. Yet most of the delegates in the national Democratic Convention don’t believe in incentives. They believe if a price is too high (think housing rents), the government can push it down and nothing bad will happen. They believe if a price is too low (think wages), government can push it up and nothing bad will happened. They believe that a plan formed by people at the top will work (think Obamacare) even if everyone at the bottom has a self-interest in defeating it.

Economics is not a science.

Good response.  The only thing I'll say is that there are MANY on the left who wouldn't give a rat's a*s if an abortion occurred in the first trimester or a week before the due date.  They're so blinded by the tag line "woman's right to chose" that they simply won't acknowledge that we as a society have a moral obligation to find a medium between a woman's right to a safe abortion and the fact that she frankly does - at least by the third trimester - have a living being helpless inside of her.

As another poster said a few days ago (the RINO kid?), it's just mind-blowing that some can't AT LEAST acknowledge that this is a very complicated and sticky issue.

[Torie]

One problem for the Dems with some Asians, that is beginning to bite, is that some Asians think affirmative action is screwing them out of slots in public universities.

[Nyvin]

The Asian American vote isn't very important in Presidential elections,  they're too concentrated in California, the NYC area, Texas, Washington, and Hawaii....none of which are even close to being competitive states.

[TarHeelDem]

The Asian American vote isn't very important in Presidential elections,  they're too concentrated in California, the NYC area, Texas, Washington, and Hawaii....none of which are even close to being competitive states.

While there may be some truth to this, I think it's possible they could make a difference in Virginia and/or North Carolina.

But the answer to the question posed by this thread's title is simply "Not enough".

[100% pro-life no matter what]

White: 62
Asian: 41
Hispanic: 37
Black: 10

[Oak Hills]

What makes republicans more "anti-science" than democrats? Can you please remind me which party tends to oppose GMOs, yet almost every single respected study has found that GMOs are just as safe as any other food?

Well, the Green Party tends to oppose GMOs, but I think they're irrelevant to this conversation.  The Democratic Party is largely indifferent to GMOs.

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Everything I've seen shows that the jury's still out on fracking.

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No party, as far as I know.

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I don't know, but it certainly had nothing to do with any American political party, and the vast majority of Democrats support vaccines.

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This one might be fair, I can't speak to it.

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I don't think anyone denies that intelligence is partly genetic, but it is incredibly ignorant to think that that's the only factor. 

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I wasn't aware there was a faction of any party that thinks there is no such thing as nuclear power. [/snark] 

In seriousness, the vast majority of Democrats support nuclear power.

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Obviously there are benefits and costs to these policies, but it is extremely arrogant to think that one knows whether these policies are worth it on balance.  The whole point of liberal economic policy is to influence the economy for the better thru incentives.

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This is just stupid.  Anyone who's paying attention and doesn't have partisan/ideological blinders on knows that no one has a self-interest in defeating Obamacare.

[Lincoln Republican]

8-10%

[Xing]

Black: 8%
Hispanic: 29%
Asian: 34%

[TDAS04]

Black: 9%
Hispanic: 25%
Asian: 29%

[Likely Voter]

White: 62

Mitt Romney - who ran what some called 'the  last great white campaign and was running against a black man - got 59%. That was actually better than GW Bush who was the last GOPer to win the PV. Even Bush Sr. in the 1988 landslide win only got 60%.  Yet somehow you think Hillary will under perform John Kerry and Michael Dukakis? Seriously?

The GOPs only path to victory is the follow the last guy who won the PV (GW Bush) and find a way to appeal to non-whites. They don't need to win them, but they got to get into the game. Trying to squeeze more and more out of the shrinking white population is a losing strategy.

[All Along The Watchtower]

One problem for the Dems with some Asians, that is beginning to bite, is that some Asians think affirmative action is screwing them out of slots in public universities.

Which is unfortunate, because that's not true.

[Higgs]

White: 59%
Hispanic: 37%
Black: 9%
Asian: 45%

[dudeabides]

Well here is the trend...

          00   04  08  12
Black   9   11    4     6
Latino 35   44   31   27
Asian  41   43   35   26

My guess for 2016
Black   8
Latino 33*
Asian  33*

Which means the GOP will need 61%+ of the white vote to win

* A LOT depends on the GOP position on immigration. Polling has shown that support for a path to citizenship makes a big difference (and Bush's 2004 seems to back that up). I am assuming that the GOP nominee will not back a path to citizenship.

It depends on the candidate

          Bush Rubio Walker Paul Cruz Christie Trump Huckabee
Latino  42    37       26       30    24    35         19       31
Black   9      7         6         9      4      6           1         6
Asian   38    33       22       26    19     26         26       24