Iran Nuclear Deal Saga
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Author Topic: Iran Nuclear Deal Saga  (Read 4122 times)
Frodo
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« on: June 28, 2015, 09:59:58 PM »
« edited: July 13, 2015, 05:15:04 PM by Frodo »

Seems we won't be meeting that June 30 deadline after all, which is just as well:

Western officials suggest Iran tries to wiggle out of nuclear pledges

VIENNA | BY LOUIS CHARBONNEAU AND ARSHAD MOHAMMED
World | Sun Jun 28, 2015 6:31pm EDT


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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #1 on: June 29, 2015, 04:01:15 AM »

Ugh, what a shame.
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Famous Mortimer
WillipsBrighton
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« Reply #2 on: June 29, 2015, 05:50:28 AM »

So rather than not making a nuke and admitting it, they're going to not make a nuke and refuse to comment whether they are or not. Big Whoop.
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Thunderbird is the word
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« Reply #3 on: June 29, 2015, 03:16:05 PM »

Netenyahu's belligerence combined with the fact that whoever takes office in January, 2017 is likely to be more hawkish then Obama doesn't exactly help matters.
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jfern
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« Reply #4 on: June 29, 2015, 10:25:48 PM »

Netenyahu's belligerence combined with the fact that whoever takes office in January, 2017 is likely to be more hawkish then Obama doesn't exactly help matters.

We really need Bernie Sanders
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Ebsy
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« Reply #5 on: June 30, 2015, 02:16:49 AM »

We'll see what's announced.
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Thunderbird is the word
Zen Lunatic
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« Reply #6 on: June 30, 2015, 03:10:52 AM »

Netenyahu's belligerence combined with the fact that whoever takes office in January, 2017 is likely to be more hawkish then Obama doesn't exactly help matters.

We really need Bernie Sanders
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #7 on: July 01, 2015, 02:05:11 AM »

Hardly a surprise.

Iran needs a liberal revolution, preferably of internal origin. Thats the only long term solution.
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publicunofficial
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« Reply #8 on: July 01, 2015, 02:52:44 AM »

Hardly a surprise.

Iran needs a liberal revolution, preferably of internal origin. Thats the only long term solution.

That revolution might come a bit sooner if we actually negotiate with them instead of our current strategy, or possible future strategy of bombing them.
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dead0man
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« Reply #9 on: July 01, 2015, 05:30:42 AM »

I like how the 'murica haters blame everybody but the religious leaders in charge of Iran.  One ass clown even blamed da Joos.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #10 on: July 05, 2015, 12:19:50 AM »

I can't get a good read on what's really going on here.  From what I've seen, it sounds like, while the Supreme Leader is offering lots of bluster on "We will never agree to X, Y, and Z", the actual negotiators keep getting closer and closer to agreement, though it may be a never-ending iteration towards a deal that never materializes.
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Torie
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« Reply #11 on: July 05, 2015, 10:27:11 AM »

I can't get a good read on what's really going on here.  From what I've seen, it sounds like, while the Supreme Leader is offering lots of bluster on "We will never agree to X, Y, and Z", the actual negotiators keep getting closer and closer to agreement, though it may be a never-ending iteration towards a deal that never materializes.


I read somewhere the Iran has agreed not to do certain things as to its nuke program, in exchange for some relaxation in sanctions, while negotiations continue. Is there any argument to be made that this situation is better than the negotiations ending, and Iran does whatever it wants, and the sanctions tighten, but at the risk that some may start to ignore them among the usual suspects? If so, maybe the real "deal," and the only deal to be had,  is to just keep the negotiations going on forever.
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #12 on: July 07, 2015, 02:26:25 PM »

That revolution might come a bit sooner if we actually negotiate with them instead of our current strategy, or possible future strategy of bombing them.

That doesn't necessarily follow; 40 years of negotiating with China hasn't produced one.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #13 on: July 12, 2015, 06:27:09 AM »

Looks like there might finally be a deal in Vienna later today, the "Standard" reports.

The "climate of talks" is so good that all the foreign ministers are coming to a meeting later today, incl. the Russian, French & Chinese.

Kerry, Zarif, Steinmeier and Hammond are already there. Mogherini is also in Vienna.

http://derstandard.at/2000018977519/Atom-Deal-Ministerrunde-soll-Entscheidung-bringen
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #14 on: July 12, 2015, 10:17:15 AM »

Looks like there might finally be a deal in Vienna later today, the "Standard" reports.

The "climate of talks" is so good that all the foreign ministers are coming to a meeting later today, incl. the Russian, French & Chinese.

Kerry, Zarif, Steinmeier and Hammond are already there. Mogherini is also in Vienna.

http://derstandard.at/2000018977519/Atom-Deal-Ministerrunde-soll-Entscheidung-bringen

The latest is that they are working well into the night today and that the deal is presented tomorrow. But it seems they are 99% there.
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
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« Reply #15 on: July 12, 2015, 11:28:02 AM »

Here comes the Bibi meltdown.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #16 on: July 13, 2015, 12:59:22 PM »

when do we leave these poor saps alone?  I guess one can never repent the sin of overthrowing a US-backed dictator
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Frodo
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« Reply #17 on: July 13, 2015, 05:14:37 PM »

Tuesday appears to be the new deadline.


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Frozen Sky Ever Why
ShadowOfTheWave
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« Reply #18 on: July 13, 2015, 05:16:15 PM »

What happens if the deal fails and Iran continues it's program? Surely Putin will not allow Netanyahu to attack Iran.
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Frodo
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« Reply #19 on: July 13, 2015, 05:24:36 PM »

What happens if the deal fails and Iran continues it's program? Surely Putin will not allow Netanyahu to attack Iran.

The deal (and there will be a final deal tomorrow) will not fail for one simple reason -the sanctions imposed on Iran over the years are hurting Iran worse than any of us think, and they are desperate to end them by any means necessary, so long as they can save face and come back home with some semblance of self-respect.  We have the upper hand -they do not. 

 
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H. Ross Peron
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« Reply #20 on: July 14, 2015, 02:28:30 AM »

A preliminary deal has been reached: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/15/world/middleeast/iran-nuclear-deal-is-reached-after-long-negotiations.html

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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #21 on: July 14, 2015, 04:16:00 AM »

Fantastic news! Smiley
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #22 on: July 14, 2015, 10:52:40 AM »

What happens if the deal fails and Iran continues it's program? Surely Putin will not allow Netanyahu to attack Iran.

The deal (and there will be a final deal tomorrow) will not fail for one simple reason -the sanctions imposed on Iran over the years are hurting Iran worse than any of us think, and they are desperate to end them by any means necessary, so long as they can save face and come back home with some semblance of self-respect.  We have the upper hand -they do not. 

 

Iran knows that if it breaks this deal, that justifies Israel and/or the US going in. It may be a mess for the international community as a whole, but there's no way Iran comes out of that well.
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shua
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« Reply #23 on: July 14, 2015, 01:35:35 PM »

After 5 years the arms embargo is lifted, and after 8 years a missile embargo is lifted.  I'm really surprised Obama and the Western powers agreed to that.  Obama won't see much support for this deal in Congress.   
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Gass3268
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« Reply #24 on: July 14, 2015, 02:18:24 PM »

After 5 years the arms embargo is lifted, and after 8 years a missile embargo is lifted.  I'm really surprised Obama and the Western powers agreed to that.  Obama won't see much support for this deal in Congress.   

That is actually 5 years longer than the UN sanctions resolution stated. The resolution stated the sanctions would be lifted once they came to the table for negotiations. Also I doubt the opposition will get 67 votes in the Senate, especially with Biden, Kerry, and Reid whipping votes for Obama. So the deal with go through.
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