New Conservative Young Generation?

[100% pro-life no matter what]

There is some evidence that voters born since 1992 are actually a Republican-leaning group.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2014/03/10/democrats-have-a-young-people-problem-too/

[YaBoyNY]

What are the sample sizes of this? I have difficulty imagining 18 year olds voted almost 60% for Romney while 21 year olds voted 75% for Obama. That's a -huge- leap.

[Thunderbird is the word]

From my personal experiences (and I don't know how representative they are) younger millenials actually tend towards the radical end of the spectrum. It might just be that they're turned off to mainstream liberal politics while the conservatives of that group are more politically active so it creates an unrepresentative sample size. If you look at trends in academia also they tend to be extremely PC. Again I don't know how representative that is and maybe some of the conservatism is ironically a backlash to that.

[Ebsy]

I think the younger cohort of millennials might be less likely to identify as Democrats than our older counterparts, but we're even more socially liberal, so I don't think Republicans will be getting our votes.

[Prince of Salem]

Two words: Ron Paul.

As for the rest, I don't think anything really changes the trend very much.

[DS0816]

"The data cannot tell us how these youngest millennials will end up voting as their political maturation continues.  If the key experience is coming of age during Obama’s presidency, then clearly that experience isn’t over yet.  Were the economy to boom and Obama’s popularity to increase, the youngest millennials probably would tilt more toward the Democrats.

"Instead, the problem arises in predicting the views of future generations based on the views of millennials today.  For some issues, those predictions may be accurate. At a minimum, the political identities of future generations will depend on economic trends and the popularity of presidents who haven’t been elected. Maybe those factors will tend to break in Democrats’ favor, and maybe they won’t.


This is all that was necessary.

[Stranger in a strange land]

From my personal experiences (and I don't know how representative they are) younger millenials actually tend towards the radical end of the spectrum. It might just be that they're turned off to mainstream liberal politics while the conservatives of that group are more politically active so it creates an unrepresentative sample size. If you look at trends in academia also they tend to be extremely PC. Again I don't know how representative that is and maybe some of the conservatism is ironically a backlash to that.

Yes, they're backlashing against Obama by becoming Tumblrite SJWs. God help us all.

[RFayette]

I'm very skeptical.  Perhaps there's a "shy conservatives" effect on Facebook, but virtually everyone on my school's admitted Facebook page posting about politics supported Bernie Sanders.  At my high school, most folks who took that Isidewith quiz also got Sanders.

We need to wait awhile to know for sure, but I'm not too hopeful about it.

[RFayette]

What are the sample sizes of this? I have difficulty imagining 18 year olds voted almost 60% for Romney while 21 year olds voted 75% for Obama. That's a -huge- leap.

Yeah, the sample sizes are too small.  2016 might be a better tell for the group. 

[5280]

I think the point of this thread is the prove that not ALL new generations become more Democratic to Socialist over time.  Just like not all states will trend Democratic in 20 years.

[YaBoyNY]

I think the point of this thread is the prove that not ALL new generations become more Democratic to Socialist over time.  Just like not all states will trend Democratic in 20 years.

I don't think anybody has ever insinuated that. But while Gen X was more conservative, Millennials are certainly more liberal.

[Free Bird]

Makes sense. The 80s generation mainly remember things going to crap under Republicans. The 90s crowd remembers the opposite.

[YaBoyNY]

Makes sense. The 80s generation mainly remember things going to crap under Republicans. The 90s crowd remembers the opposite.

Things haven't gotten worse under Obama though, nor is there any real evidence that people who came of age under Obama are more conservative.

[Mechaman]

I think it is more accurate to say that the younger young generation or whatever you want to call them are becoming more of a "normal" voting demographic than "conservative".  Sure, they did not get to see the country go downhill under Bush, but neither do a lot of them find Obama to be a horrible president.  Sure, they probably won't view the man like kids viewed Clinton, but I can't imagine support for either party going much past 55 either way.

Keep in mind though, that looks very Republican compared to how folks my generation feel about Bush.  You want to see me get banned?  Well ask me how I feel about George Bush's tenure as president.  I would probably get the necessary 100 points in the first paragraph alone.

[YaBoyNY]

I think it is more accurate to say that the younger young generation or whatever you want to call them are becoming more of a "normal" voting demographic than "conservative".  Sure, they did not get to see the country go downhill under Bush, but neither do a lot of them find Obama to be a horrible president.  Sure, they probably won't view the man like kids viewed Clinton, but I can't imagine support for either party going much past 55 either way.

Keep in mind though, that looks very Republican compared to how folks my generation feel about Bush.  You want to see me get banned?  Well ask me how I feel about George Bush's tenure as president.  I would probably get the necessary 100 points in the first paragraph alone.

Absolutely. Ask anybody in my graduating class about Bush and they'll tell you all sorts of things.

And ask any of us who were in college or university when the economic crisis hit and you'll hear words you had no idea existed.

[Free Bird]

Makes sense. The 80s generation mainly remember things going to crap under Republicans. The 90s crowd remembers the opposite.

Things haven't gotten worse under Obama though, nor is there any real evidence that people who came of age under Obama are more conservative.

Doesn't matter whether it did or not. What matters is if the person perceives it as such with issues they care about. You can have a conversation about the economy as a whole, but several other issues that Bush did that young people care about, as well as new ones, have become clearly worse under Obama, and the 1995+ crowd takes those issues into consideration as well.

[NerdyBohemian]

Once these 18-20 year old white kids from the suburbs leave college and see how Republicans want to handle student loans they'll abandon ship.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Once these 18-20 year old white kids from the suburbs leave college and see how Republicans want to handle student loans they'll abandon ship.

White kids from the suburbs don't usually have debt.  I'm a college student right now, and many, many people have parents who are willing to just pay $60K+ per year, debt-free.

[Figueira]

Why are you making this assumption when there's clearly no evidence either way.

[Higgs]

Once these 18-20 year old white kids from the suburbs leave college and see how Republicans want to handle student loans they'll abandon ship.

White kids from the suburbs don't usually have debt.  I'm a college student right now, and many, many people have parents who are willing to just pay $60K+ per year, debt-free.

This exactly

[YaBoyNY]

Makes sense. The 80s generation mainly remember things going to crap under Republicans. The 90s crowd remembers the opposite.

Things haven't gotten worse under Obama though, nor is there any real evidence that people who came of age under Obama are more conservative.

Doesn't matter whether it did or not. What matters is if the person perceives it as such with issues they care about. You can have a conversation about the economy as a whole, but several other issues that Bush did that young people care about, as well as new ones, have become clearly worse under Obama, and the 1995+ crowd takes those issues into consideration as well.

Eh, not really. You're assuming young people view the country as having gotten worse under Obama when they're the ones who are more likely to have a positive view of him. I'm not seeing what issues you're talking about that young people tend to care more about that have gotten worse under Obama.

Once these 18-20 year old white kids from the suburbs leave college and see how Republicans want to handle student loans they'll abandon ship.

White kids from the suburbs don't usually have debt.  I'm a college student right now, and many, many people have parents who are willing to just pay $60K+ per year, debt-free.

I know plenty of white kids from the suburbs that do have debt. Not every white kid from the suburbs comes from a $200,000+ a year family.

[Indy Texas]

Makes sense. The 80s generation mainly remember things going to crap under Republicans. The 90s crowd remembers the opposite.

Things haven't gotten worse under Obama though, nor is there any real evidence that people who came of age under Obama are more conservative.

Doesn't matter whether it did or not. What matters is if the person perceives it as such with issues they care about. You can have a conversation about the economy as a whole, but several other issues that Bush did that young people care about, as well as new ones, have become clearly worse under Obama, and the 1995+ crowd takes those issues into consideration as well.

Eh, not really. You're assuming young people view the country as having gotten worse under Obama when they're the ones who are more likely to have a positive view of him. I'm not seeing what issues you're talking about that young people tend to care more about that have gotten worse under Obama.

Once these 18-20 year old white kids from the suburbs leave college and see how Republicans want to handle student loans they'll abandon ship.

White kids from the suburbs don't usually have debt.  I'm a college student right now, and many, many people have parents who are willing to just pay $60K+ per year, debt-free.

I know plenty of white kids from the suburbs that do have debt. Not every white kid from the suburbs comes from a $200,000+ a year family.

Yes, but the ones who do have loans to pay back often fall into the trap their older counterparts do of falling for the trope that, "You're a hard working real 'Murican paying off your loans while those people get free college education just for being illegal immigrants/minorities/etc!"

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

Makes sense. The 80s generation mainly remember things going to crap under Republicans. The 90s crowd remembers the opposite.

As a 80's kid I'd have to say the opposite.

[Mehmentum]

Makes sense. The 80s generation mainly remember things going to crap under Republicans. The 90s crowd remembers the opposite.

As a 80's kid I'd have to say the opposite.

As a 90's kid, I'd have to say the opposite as well. (as in, I clearly remember every going to crap under Republicans.)

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

Makes sense. The 80s generation mainly remember things going to crap under Republicans. The 90s crowd remembers the opposite.

As a 80's kid I'd have to say the opposite.

As a 90's kid, I'd have to say the opposite as well. (as in, I clearly remember every going to crap under Republicans.)

I'm not just factoring economics. Yes Clinton was president in a prosperous period economically but morally he was repugnant.

Under Reagan and HW (the reason why Clinton was in the good economic run) we also had men who were solid and faithful family (in the case of HW) or owned up to his mistakes (in terms of Reagan). Both HW and Reagan (with honorable mention to Clinton) fought for religious liberty.

I've never been more concerned for religious liberty than I have been under Obama.