New Conservative Young Generation?

[YaBoyNY]

Makes sense. The 80s generation mainly remember things going to crap under Republicans. The 90s crowd remembers the opposite.

As a 80's kid I'd have to say the opposite.

As a 90's kid, I'd have to say the opposite as well. (as in, I clearly remember every going to crap under Republicans.)

I'm not just factoring economics. Yes Clinton was president in a prosperous period economically but morally he was repugnant.

Under Reagan and HW (the reason why Clinton was in the good economic run) we also had men who were solid and faithful family (in the case of HW) or owned up to his mistakes (in terms of Reagan). Both HW and Reagan (with honorable mention to Clinton) fought for religious liberty.

I've never been more concerned for religious liberty than I have been under Obama.

Thank God majority do not share your views.

[Clark Kent]

Not sure how well my views represent my generation as a whole, but I'm a moderate-conservative and future Republican, and I was born in the 1990s. Also, while there are a lot of liberals and Democrats at my school, there are also a surprising number of conservatives and Republicans, mostly on economic issues.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I think the "yoof" are mixed economically. They will probably be ambivalent to negative on traditional leftist causes like unions (sadly) and full employment while being passionate about reforms like single-payer and free college. They may demand something more akin to flexicurity than anything.

We also have to remember the changing demographics of future generations. I doubt, for example, nativist sentiment will be very popular amongst this cohort. For obvious reasons.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I think the "yoof" are mixed economically. They will probably be ambivalent to negative on traditional leftist causes like unions (sadly) and full employment while being passionate about reforms like single-payer and free college. They may demand something more akin to flexicurity than anything.

We also have to remember the changing demographics of future generations. I doubt, for example, nativist sentiment will be very popular amongst this cohort. For obvious reasons.

[pbrower2a]

If anything, the Millennial conservatives are going to reject such traits of Boom and X conservatism as prove uncomfortable. They will be more libertarian on economics, recalling the likes of Milton Friedman, but rejecting the connections to religious fundamentalism and crony capitalism. They will see small business instead of tycoons and bureaucratic power-brokers as the heroes of capitalism and might support tax policies that favor small business over giant corporations.  For them rationalism will overpower superstition and fanaticism that makes much of contemporary conservatism unpalatable to young adults.

There will be no equivalent of the Religious Right emerging among Millennial adults.

Know well: this could now be as easily a splintering of the Democratic Party, which now attracts multitudes of people whose economic values are free market (as opposed to the 'Socialism for the Rich' of the current Republican Party) and who are culturally conservative (typically Asians and Latinos).

So the conservatism of 2030 might offer this:

1. Aversion to deficit spending
2. Promotion of classical norms of education
3. Tax policies that favor small business at the expense of tycoons and big landowners
4. Acceptance of cultural difference and rejection of nativism
5. Caution in foreign policy
6. Sponsorship of rational thought
7. Rigid adherence to judicial precedent
8. Rejection of demagoguery

Basically, "I like Ike"... and, really, closer to Barack Obama than to the Hard Right. Just compare the Obama victories of 2008 and 2012 to those of Eisenhower in 1952 and 1956. Remove most of the ranch states of the Eisenhower wins of 1952 and 1956 and one gets an Obama win.

If conservatism is to have any revival, then it will have to fit the sensibilities of people in their 30s and 40s around 2030.  Around 2030 Obama could be the hero of the conservatives of the time.The 2030s are more likely to resemble the 1950s than the 1990s in their politics.
 
     

[Free Bird]

Makes sense. The 80s generation mainly remember things going to crap under Republicans. The 90s crowd remembers the opposite.

As a 80's kid I'd have to say the opposite.

I was talking about people BORN in those time periods but didn't become politically cognoscent until their teenage years

[The Mikado]

And there arose a new Pharaoh over Egypt who knew not Joseph...

Once George W. Bush is out of the conscious memory of the 18-24 set, the GOP have a chance, especially if those youngsters blame the economic hardships they face on Obama. I don't think that the 18-24 set will swing in 2016, but it may in 2020 (by which point the 18-24 set will be basically all post-Millennial).

[/]

I refuse to believe this!

[Potus]

"Socially liberal" is a term completely determined by the circumstances of the times. Abortion is still evenly divided among the high school and pro-Romney faction of youngs. So that issue isn't going to break everything in Democrat's favor. The future of the social conservative movement is likely to revolve around the retreat from marriage, the death penalty (which youngs still support), gun rights, and abortion. I think we'll likely see a sea change on marijuana legalization, though it will be a point of contention.

The social liberalism of tomorrow is likely to revolve much more unpopular ideas like the legalization of hard drugs, polygamous marriage, and a continued cultural disdain for people in the South, Mountain West, Great Plains, and anyone who doesn't live in cities. The strongest of these issues for social liberals will be cultural elitism, in form of things like gun control and a dedication to edgy multiculturalism. It's hard, however, to imagine a solid majority of Americans backing social liberalism.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Tbh, although that does logically make sense, I'd rather never eat meat again then bang a dog.

I think social issues normally come down to "urbane, globalist, cosmopolitan and young" vs "isolated, insular, traditional and old". I don't tend to see either group swinging behind dogfecking

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

Makes sense. The 80s generation mainly remember things going to crap under Republicans. The 90s crowd remembers the opposite.

As a 80's kid I'd have to say the opposite.

I was talking about people BORN in those time periods but didn't become politically cognoscent until their teenage years

Then I'd be a 90's one too.

[Bojack Horseman]

Makes sense. The 80s generation mainly remember things going to crap under Republicans. The 90s crowd remembers the opposite.

As a 80's kid I'd have to say the opposite.

As a 90's kid, I'd have to say the opposite as well. (as in, I clearly remember every going to crap under Republicans.)

I'm not just factoring economics. Yes Clinton was president in a prosperous period economically but morally he was repugnant.

Under Reagan and HW (the reason why Clinton was in the good economic run) we also had men who were solid and faithful family (in the case of HW) or owned up to his mistakes (in terms of Reagan). Both HW and Reagan (with honorable mention to Clinton) fought for religious liberty.

I've never been more concerned for religious liberty than I have been under Obama.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Once these 18-20 year old white kids from the suburbs leave college and see how Republicans want to handle student loans they'll abandon ship.

White kids from the suburbs don't usually have debt.  I'm a college student right now, and many, many people have parents who are willing to just pay $60K+ per year, debt-free.

This exactly

As a proportion of the population, there are not "many, many people" who fit this description. I'm pretty sure that even most white kids from the suburbs have to take out loans, or will within a few years if tuition keeps increasing at the rate it has been.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Not sure how well my views represent my generation as a whole, but I'm a moderate-conservative and future Republican, and I was born in the 1990s. Also, while there are a lot of liberals and Democrats at my school, there are also a surprising number of conservatives and Republicans, mostly on economic issues.

High school students label themselves "economically conservative, socially liberal" to make themselves look sophisticated.

[Mehmentum]

Well, we do have exit polls from 2014.

Link

18 - 24: 54% Democrat 44% Republican (D+10)
25 - 29: 54% Democrat 43% Republican (D+11)
30 - 39: 51% Democrat 47% Republican (D+4)

So there's basically no difference between the 18 - 24 group (which should at this point, mostly be the Romney voters the OP's article was talking about) and the 25 - 29 group.  Both groups are about 16 to 17 points more Democratic than the country.

If a more conservative new generation is coming up, they were too young to vote in 2014.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Well, we do have exit polls from 2014.

Link

18 - 24: 54% Democrat 44% Republican (D+10)
25 - 29: 54% Democrat 43% Republican (D+11)
30 - 39: 51% Democrat 47% Republican (D+4)

So there's basically no difference between the 18 - 24 group (which should at this point, mostly be the Romney voters the OP's article was talking about) and the 25 - 29 group.  Both groups are about 16 to 17 points more Democratic than the country.

If a more conservative new generation is coming up, they were too young to vote in 2014.

If you think about it, 18-24 year olds have no reason to vote Republican. I know a bunch of you are going to say "HUR DUR OBAMA IS BLACK AND THE ECONOMY'S BAD!!!11!" But the narrative that the GOP is peddling doesn't resonate at all with most Americans born after 1970 or so. Younger Millennials are even less religious, less white, and more LGBT-friendly than older Millennials. They haven't grown up knowing prosperity, but the worst of the recession was borne by those who entered the workforce in 2008-2010, who by now are in their mid to late 20s.

On a related note, the Republicans are going to be royally screwed when the Silent Generation starts dying off.

[5280]

Well, we do have exit polls from 2014.

Link

18 - 24: 54% Democrat 44% Republican (D+10)
25 - 29: 54% Democrat 43% Republican (D+11)
30 - 39: 51% Democrat 47% Republican (D+4)

So there's basically no difference between the 18 - 24 group (which should at this point, mostly be the Romney voters the OP's article was talking about) and the 25 - 29 group.  Both groups are about 16 to 17 points more Democratic than the country.

If a more conservative new generation is coming up, they were too young to vote in 2014.

If you think about it, 18-24 year olds have no reason to vote Republican. I know a bunch of you are going to say "HUR DUR OBAMA IS BLACK AND THE ECONOMY'S BAD!!!11!" But the narrative that the GOP is peddling doesn't resonate at all with most Americans born after 1970 or so. Younger Millennials are even less religious, less white, and more LGBT-friendly than older Millennials. They haven't grown up knowing prosperity, but the worst of the recession was borne by those who entered the workforce in 2008-2010, who by now are in their mid to late 20s.

On a related note, the Republicans are going to be royally screwed when the Silent Generation starts dying off.

The country is screwed when you have the Democratic party controlling the white house for too long.  How do you like your communism?

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

Makes sense. The 80s generation mainly remember things going to crap under Republicans. The 90s crowd remembers the opposite.

As a 80's kid I'd have to say the opposite.

As a 90's kid, I'd have to say the opposite as well. (as in, I clearly remember every going to crap under Republicans.)

I'm not just factoring economics. Yes Clinton was president in a prosperous period economically but morally he was repugnant.

Under Reagan and HW (the reason why Clinton was in the good economic run) we also had men who were solid and faithful family (in the case of HW) or owned up to his mistakes (in terms of Reagan). Both HW and Reagan (with honorable mention to Clinton) fought for religious liberty.

I've never been more concerned for religious liberty than I have been under Obama.

Seriously, resorting to childishness are you? I'm quite libertarian for the average Evangelical.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Well, we do have exit polls from 2014.

Link

18 - 24: 54% Democrat 44% Republican (D+10)
25 - 29: 54% Democrat 43% Republican (D+11)
30 - 39: 51% Democrat 47% Republican (D+4)

So there's basically no difference between the 18 - 24 group (which should at this point, mostly be the Romney voters the OP's article was talking about) and the 25 - 29 group.  Both groups are about 16 to 17 points more Democratic than the country.

If a more conservative new generation is coming up, they were too young to vote in 2014.

If you think about it, 18-24 year olds have no reason to vote Republican. I know a bunch of you are going to say "HUR DUR OBAMA IS BLACK AND THE ECONOMY'S BAD!!!11!" But the narrative that the GOP is peddling doesn't resonate at all with most Americans born after 1970 or so. Younger Millennials are even less religious, less white, and more LGBT-friendly than older Millennials. They haven't grown up knowing prosperity, but the worst of the recession was borne by those who entered the workforce in 2008-2010, who by now are in their mid to late 20s.

On a related note, the Republicans are going to be royally screwed when the Silent Generation starts dying off.

The country is screwed when you have the Democratic party controlling the white house for too long.  How do you like your communism?

Just fine, thank you. Sometimes I wish Obama really was the socialist dictator you guys claim he is.

[Leinad]

I think we're probably getting more libertarian.

Everyone's just talking about domestic issues, mainly the economy, but it's more than just that. Foreign policy is a concern to everyone, but especially to those who would be of military age or those whose lives would be cut shortest in the case of complete worldwide nuclear annihilation (not that I think it's likely--I'm not that crazy).

Criminal justice reform is a big deal. So's drug legalization. Not to mention Gitmo's still open.

Oh, and the government's spying on us. Millennials hate being spied on. We really do.

Maybe Democrats are better at these things than mainstream Republicans, but libertarians (either in the Libertarian Party or the very small libertarian wing of the Republican Party) are much better. So's the Green Party, by the way, but they're a lot further left economically than me.

[TJ in Oregon]

I was skeptical at first of the 2012 exit polling that showed a more conservative set of younger millenials, but the Madison precinct data does seem to bear this out somewhat around the UW Madison campus.

Here is the 2014 WI Gubernatorial swing map for the city of Madison (swing toward R is red, sorry ):



The massive clump of dark red is the campus. Admittedly, this is comparing to the recall race, which took place over the summer, but 2010 numbers and 2012 presidential numbers show similar margins around campus as the 2012 recall numbers. There is a definite shift toward the GOP.

[Kingpoleon]

As a young independent who will first be able to vote in 2020, I could see myself becoming Republican-leaning by then. 

[YaBoyNY]

I've seen myself learning more towards the Republicans, mainly due to the Democratic Party's left-wing shift over the past 15-years.

The Democratic Party hasn't shifted left. It just lost its conservative wing.

The Republican Party, on the other hand, as shifted far, far to the right.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I've seen myself learning more towards the Republicans, mainly due to the Democratic Party's left-wing shift over the past 15-years.

The Democratic Party hasn't shifted left. It just lost its conservative wing.

The Republican Party, on the other hand, as shifted far, far to the right.

If the Republicans have shifted far to the right, then it seems that it's just a realisation that the world is changing. The party is more receptive to pension reform, education privatisation, and deregulation, all of which are needed to remain competitive in a sea of demographic changes and globalisation.

If the Democrats possessed a more centrist wing, then I would wholeheartedly vote for them, as I dislike the social conservatism of the Republicans.

Most of the classmates I talk to also share these viewpoints, with the poor labour market, anaemic economic performance, and high college costs shifting them to a position where they tolerate the relative bigotry of some members of the Republican Party.

Bernie addresses those concerns much better than the Republican party. Of course if Hillary is the nominee, the Democratic party can say goodbye to a lot of young voters.

[YaBoyNY]

I've seen myself learning more towards the Republicans, mainly due to the Democratic Party's left-wing shift over the past 15-years.

The Democratic Party hasn't shifted left. It just lost its conservative wing.

The Republican Party, on the other hand, as shifted far, far to the right.

If the Republicans have shifted far to the right, then it seems that it's just a realisation that the world is changing. The party is more receptive to pension reform, education privatisation, and deregulation, all of which are needed to remain competitive in a sea of demographic changes and globalisation.

If the Democrats possessed a more centrist wing, then I would wholeheartedly vote for them, as I dislike the social conservatism of the Republicans.

Most of the classmates I talk to also share these viewpoints, with the poor labour market, anaemic economic performance, and high college costs shifting them to a position where they tolerate the relative bigotry of some members of the Republican Party.

Bernie addresses those concerns much better than the Republican party. Of course if Hillary is the nominee, the Democratic party can say goodbye to a lot of young voters.

lol, are you actually insinuating that young voters who like Bernie would vote Republican over Hillary?

lmao, holy crap dude, Sandernistas are incredibly deranged.

I've seen myself learning more towards the Republicans, mainly due to the Democratic Party's left-wing shift over the past 15-years.

The Democratic Party hasn't shifted left. It just lost its conservative wing.

The Republican Party, on the other hand, as shifted far, far to the right.

If the Republicans have shifted far to the right, then it seems that it's just a realisation that the world is changing. The party is more receptive to pension reform, education privatisation, and deregulation, all of which are needed to remain competitive in a sea of demographic changes and globalisation.

If the Democrats possessed a more centrist wing, then I would wholeheartedly vote for them, as I dislike the social conservatism of the Republicans.

Most of the classmates I talk to also share these viewpoints, with the poor labour market, anaemic economic performance, and high college costs shifting them to a position where they tolerate the relative bigotry of some members of the Republican Party.

Ah, the old "yes, i have many classmates/friends/acquantinces who share these views too" viewpoint.